Sunday, 14 June 2020

Booming Bundeslayga

With the German leagues back in action for a while now, and prompted by an inquiry from Ioannis, I thought I'd update my Bundeslayga System results.

In its original form from 2010, this system layed odds-on favourites in the Bundesliga.1 but was revised in 2016 after more data was available and the weakness in the market for teams in the 1.3 - 2.0 (50%-77%) range was showing signs of correcting itself.

Since 2012, the strategy of laying all teams, Home and Away, would have been a profitable one with Home lays having an ROI of 0.6% and Away lays one of 0.7%

Sadly the vig means that backing the Draw blindly is not profitable with a negative ROI of 0.6%, but these numbers can easily be improved upon with a few simple parameters added.

Laying Home teams priced at greater than 2.5 (an Implied Win Probability of less than 40%) increases the ROI to 3.4% for example, and backing Home teams in this range up to 10.0 (10%) itself has an ROI of  11.1%

But I digress. Back to the Bundeslayga and here are the results prior to this weekend of the strategy in both Bundesliga.1 and Bundesliga.2 since the Pinnacle era.
In the 16 seasons, only two have seen a loss, and combined only 2016-17 has ended in the red.

The 2019-20 numbers have been improved by the empty stadium factor, and while it is a small sample size at the moment, it's something worth tracking. 

Prior to the suspension of play, the Bundeslayga System (Bundesliga.1) was up 23.76 points (ROI 18%) while after returning to empty stadiums it has added another 18.29 points (ROI 73%).

In Bundesliga.2 the numbers are 12.05 points (8.3%) and 4.63 points (21%) respectively.

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