Sunday, 28 June 2020

Leaning Green

Back to politics for this post, and some interesting comments from Paul Motty, aka Political Gambler regarding the 7% implied probability that the next president will be neither Biden nor Trump. 

Both candidates are up there in years, and both have - not surprisingly - shown some decline from their prime years, and while money coming in for Pence is not a surprise, the same for Clinton is a little unexpected.

If Biden drops out for whatever reason, the likely Democratic Party candidate will be his (likely female) VP choice which is expected to be announced in July.

As mentioned previously, the five states to keep a close eye on, and in order of importance, are Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11) and Wisconsin (10).

Michigan (16) was a "toss-up" state a few weeks ago, but as I wrote here, has now moved to the "Leans Democratic" category. A similar move was made this week by the Centre For Politics web site for Pennsylvania.

Texas may yet move to "toss-up" after polls in that state show the race there to be neck-and-neck. 

Florida has been hit hard in the last few days by a huge increase in new cases of COVID-19 and the Republican governor there hasn't managed the crisis well at all which may hurt them in November. 

There is still a little over four months to go until the election, and a lot can yet happen, but for now, anyone following along is in good shape. Leaning Green you might say. 

Latest odds on Betfair are Next President Biden at 1.68, Trump at 2.92; Popular Vote Winner 1.19 / 8.2 respectively; Winning Party Democrats 1.56, Republicans 1.76.

1 comment:

G said...

With little rationale and certainly no evidence to date I do see Biden somehow dropping out [on set dementia the most likely reason at this point]. I then see Clinton stepping in as the Democratic nominee. Could be pure fantasy by I’ve had a reasonable nibble at long odds on her being the next President. Time will tell off course but I just don’t see Biden carrying the Dems all the way to victory.