tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post2156371455369013519..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Drawing HopeCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-31161363632046988872010-09-29T14:55:26.182+01:002010-09-29T14:55:26.182+01:00Dont bother reading the book its a sales pitch for...Dont bother reading the book its a sales pitch for his service.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-47087035468582470812010-09-29T11:18:15.824+01:002010-09-29T11:18:15.824+01:00One error (at least)- apologies. "Sorry, but...One error (at least)- apologies. "Sorry, but the market is never going to be that wrong in the modern age"<br /><br />Not strictly true. But certainly not on a consistent basis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-51228922780846705952010-09-29T11:15:47.150+01:002010-09-29T11:15:47.150+01:00No, the market doesn't need to know your selec...No, the market doesn't need to know your selections. If the price on a certain outcome is consistently incorrect, which you infer by the insistence your picks offer value, then you can expect the market to "correct" over a course of time (the old chestnut of market efficiency, or a form of).<br /><br />It's an almighty IF to suggest your picks will continue to return 37% or so. Historically speaking, it's almost certain they won't. I don't know your sample size, but that figure seems to be based on just part of last season in which case the sample size is, of course, insignificant. <br /><br />A big factor in draw expectations is obviously the total goals expected. I don't know for sure, but I suspect your projections fail to take this into account. The lower the goals the more likely the draw - obviously.<br /><br />A salient point you make is "Draws will continue to hit overall at the rate that they have hit over many years". Yes, pretty much true, unless a big factor in the game were to change (e.g. extra points for goals scored or no points for a draw (ain't going to happen but I remember in the 1980s when the equivalent of the Conference, the Gola League I think it was called, offered 3 points for an away win and 2 points for a home win which should have changed the dynamics of a game. As did the introduction of three points for a win - which saw a pronounced increase in home advantage and, probably (haven't checked) an increase in goals and hence decrease in draws. Anyway, the point I was going to make is that the draw should indeed continue to hit at the same (well, similar) rate. And that rate sure as hell ain't 37%, even in the type of match you are predicting the draw in.<br /><br />It's almost unthinkable that you can consistently hit at a % equivalent to a price of 2.66 on an outcome generally priced in the 3.3 - 3.5 range you mention. Sorry, but the market is never going to be that wrong in the modern age.<br /><br />Now, I'm not saying the draw isn't ever value. I think it is. But rarely is it the enormous value you make out. There are certain match situations - not confined to dodgy Italian results - which contribute to a likely (relatively) higher probability of a draw. But, in the main, this would probably involved getting a price of 3.25 or so on a 3.00 shot. Nice value for sure.<br /><br />An important point which you haven't addressed is how you price the draw when your system predicts a draw. You can't simply back an outcome blind without looking at the price and, to the best of my knowledge, your system has shown no price sensitivity whatsoever.<br /><br />Hope that helps.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com