tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post2464224828194631300..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Value RequiredCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-89016780767783566722010-10-20T16:34:51.703+01:002010-10-20T16:34:51.703+01:00In mainstream markets such as football, 5% is at t...In mainstream markets such as football, 5% is at the higher end of realistic long-term targets for the professionals amongst us.<br /><br />(NB. On betfair, I would suggest you look for 5% value AFTER commission is taken into account). <br /><br />There's little point trying to pinch what you perceive to be 1 or 2% as, however good you are, it's incredibly difficult to be so precise.<br /><br />The comments on being wary when you estimate your value to be particualrly high are correct. You should always revisit your calculations and check your info when your price is so different to market price. I don't use Kelly as such but if I did I'd certainly be using a modified version (and not just a half or quarter Kelly. Something a little more exponential or however you would describe it)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-2047587374442219952010-10-20T16:09:06.251+01:002010-10-20T16:09:06.251+01:00It's fair to say that as the perceived edge in...It's fair to say that as the perceived edge increases the reliability decreases (in a stable liquid market - sort of counter to Kelly but thats a separate argument), give me the 2% system over the 25% system, as the 25% one will almost certainly be a statistical fluke. Find a system that hugs along the bookmaker price and you've found a very good system, one that gives 10/20+% edges is almost certainly rubbish.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-36156446175337355792010-10-20T11:02:39.910+01:002010-10-20T11:02:39.910+01:00Hi. Thank you for the informative post. I've d...Hi. Thank you for the informative post. I've decided to put up my ratings/odds on my blog and paper trial it to see if anything comes up.Abuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07969751631234303060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-89565409057623301702010-10-20T09:56:17.098+01:002010-10-20T09:56:17.098+01:00You say your system now prices up matches I've...You say your system now prices up matches I've never seen you (publicly) price up a match, perhaos you'd care to enlighten us.<br /><br />You missed the point of the broken clock comment. The insinuation was that the broken clock analogy is perhaps appropriate for your "systems" too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com