tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post2719589855796083847..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Always v OftenCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-84849335191165489322011-01-10T13:59:16.284+00:002011-01-10T13:59:16.284+00:00Your blog is the first I read of the day - please ...Your blog is the first I read of the day - please keep up the good work. I am inspired by your ELO ratings and would like to set up some of my own for an A v B (no draw) sport. Could you point me in the direction of some guidance for getting some ratings set up from scratch? I am complete novice, am not a maths genius but can hold my own.<br /><br />Best Regards,Snooker Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02391133185956132165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-28580618167298516422011-01-10T12:43:10.021+00:002011-01-10T12:43:10.021+00:00"Prices on the exchanges reflect the opinion ..."Prices on the exchanges reflect the opinion of members of the exchange. The price is where supply equals demand."<br /><br />Nope, that's not correct. Watch the asian bookmakers prices, and watch when they change, and watch what happens to betfair a couple of seconds after. The pricesetters from there are beating the drum, and the betfair market just follows accordingly.<br /><br />There's one supplier with a very fast bot that moves to the asian lines or into that spread within a couple of seconds. <br /><br />In the recent premiership games the vast majority of teams traded in a very large range of prices. E.g for decent money liverpool traded 2.3 - 1.87 away at blackburn.<br /><br />Did the opinion of the members on the exchange really change that much? At what point was this extremely liquid market "providing an accurate assessment of probabilites"? The same can be said of almost all the games the other night (last wednesday). <br /><br />I know its nice to think that betfair is a massive market, and follow the EMH, etc, but its just not the case I'm afraid. Hundreds of millions is being bet in asia where the prices come from, which filter down to betfair, where a million or two is matched on a game pre-off. <br /><br />I take positions in >50% of UK football matches and win money over the season. Not at the same ROI as F-E or even similar, but the absolute profit of course vastly exceeds his. How is it possible to make 5%-10% ROI over many seasons if the markets are even loosely efficient? Betting in over half the games is selective to a degree, but nothing like the degree which you are suggesting.<br /><br />I'm afraid the sports markets are nowhere near sophisticated enough to be considered efficient as yet. The very successful stock investors (e.g. Buffett) show that the stock market as a whole isn't efficient as yet, although the EMH is a lot easier to "accept" there - sports markets simply have no chance, as yet.mouldhousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17214196136374354948noreply@blogger.com