tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post555747727032911449..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Letting GoCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-74913114118941264752009-01-18T18:53:00.000+00:002009-01-18T18:53:00.000+00:00Hi JPG - going in to OT, I had the game pretty muc...Hi JPG - going in to OT, I had the game pretty much even. I knew the market would be clinging on to the Cavs so I was expecting 1.8 or so. When I saw 1.5, I really couldn't believe it. Bulls at home, Cavs with injury problems. I should probably just keep quiet, and cash in! Good luck.Cassinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-80117962789918208712009-01-18T00:46:00.000+00:002009-01-18T00:46:00.000+00:00Ive noticed this favourite bias within NBA markets...Ive noticed this favourite bias within NBA markets as well although I must admit, that the overtime aspect is something Ive largely overlooked. A team that is 1.3 at the tip off but only level going into the start of the 4th (all other factors level/insignificant) will still be stubbornly around the 1.5-1.55 mark. The OT example youve given makes this even clearer to see.<BR/><BR/>If say a 1.7 fav starts a game badly and the outsider goes odds-on, you'll certainly see some demand to back/support the "new" fav. However, if the original fav makes a run back, the strength and size of the demand or "thirst" to back the original fav again is exponentially more (relative to the price.) In my experience, it usually means too much momentum is created leaving a fair overshoot before the prices settles down.<BR/><BR/>Cassini, regarding the Cavs/Bulls game, going into OT what price do you believe the Cavs "should" have been? For what its worth, Id price them around 1.76-1.8 although I didnt see the game and dont know if either team had made a huge run to cause OT in the first place. The 2.0 is definitely a good starter although I would price in that the Cavs would/should have more "big" game experience to close out a close game over 5mins.<BR/><BR/>In other words, I fully agree with your lay of Cleveland at 1.5 but if you would have offered me 2.0, Id have been happy to back them! :)<BR/><BR/>JPGAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com