tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post5788611232216084324..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Casino TradingCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-40325728353771120932011-02-16T12:43:03.460+00:002011-02-16T12:43:03.460+00:00> You enter a market when it is value to do so,...> You enter a market when it is value to do so, and you exit a market when it is value to do so. You may be able to lay-off at 1.01, but if the true probability is 0.001, why would you want to give that value away to someone else?<br /><br />because your "true price" has a standard deviation just like everything else in life.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00297385622229496652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-38129493481914532232011-02-15T20:41:05.811+00:002011-02-15T20:41:05.811+00:00Hi Cassini,
It is an interesting subject.I think ...Hi Cassini,<br /><br />It is an interesting subject.I think it comes down to the individual and what you are looking for. In an ideal world we would make a decision based on value. But perhaps as an insurance policy it is worth laying a bet at short odds to guarantee the same winnings. The reason I say that is so much of gambling is about confidence and in the short term laying a bet - where possible - can keep you on an upward curve. I can imagine many people would think this is wrong. But who is to say what is value or not. It is subjective and what works for one person doesn't for another. I have had a few bets with the potential to win 1,000+ (generally speculative priced two-year-olds) which have touch 1.03 or so in-running and lost. I have looked back on those moments (and I know we all do after the event) and thoughts it must be bordering on madness to have not made good money from such an opportunity - let alone lost my stake. The effect of such a near miss can affect confidence and for that reason I do think their is some merit in laying a bet at short odds. <br /><br />Regards,<br />JasonTOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12558663091579221921noreply@blogger.com