tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post6039196854656755596..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Baseball Division v OverallCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-68666545211958030362013-08-15T09:40:22.007+01:002013-08-15T09:40:22.007+01:00Gorgeous!Gorgeous!Thedahttp://bestrowingmachinereviews.us/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-39821775769891898672013-07-10T10:18:45.609+01:002013-07-10T10:18:45.609+01:00Pete,
Good to see you playing at the US facing bo...Pete,<br /><br />Good to see you playing at the US facing bookies at least, maybe one will give you a nice reload bonus if you have lost a few dollars there :).<br /><br />I just wonder if it is a case of thinking the grass is greener on the other side of the pond? Put it this way would you have confidence in a system for the Championship written by a US guy with little interest in soccer? If it was anyone other than Nate Silver I would not be too enthusiastic.<br /><br />The way I see it, if you don't have a lot of enthusiasm for the sport then it's too easy to miss things. Can you do well from a sport you don't know that well? It would be goot to hear Cassini's thoughts on that.<br /><br />I took Mastering Betfair down to the beach yesterday, not hard to see where Cassini got all his good ideas from :).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01800039267651942286noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-62251169776001282522013-07-09T16:58:58.751+01:002013-07-09T16:58:58.751+01:00Danny,
Thank you for your input it is very much a...Danny,<br /><br />Thank you for your input it is very much appreciated.<br /><br />It would be fair to say that I am no baseball expert. My interest in the sport came about a few years ago when I read on this blog that any team could beat any other team. <br /><br />As I enjoy building and testing systems I then went about compiling my own simple rating system and I came to the conclusion that there was simply no real value to be had backing the short priced home favourites.<br /><br />Over the coming years this then became more sophisticated to the point where I now use a reliable rating system against various US bookmakers odds. Over the past few seasons simply opposing the home favourite that showed a negative rating has yielded some very good profits. <br /><br />However even this is now showing a loss of around 20 pts to level stakes.<br /><br />During last season various rules were developed and I am very wary of your comment regarding Data mining / Back fitting trap and I am just wondering whether some of the rules I have been utilising may have fallen into this trap.<br /><br />Incidently where we have backed the strong odds on favourite who is negatively rated away from home this has shown a good profit and I believe the reason for the disparity will be the superior quality pitcher employed.<br /><br />I need to take a step back over the break next week and look at this all logically because I still believe with a disciplined common sense approach there is good money to be made from this sport. I am just confused by this run which in truth is freakish.<br /><br />Regarding the XX Draws for some reason I have in my mind the xXx logo of the Vin Diesel, Ice Cube Films.<br /><br /><br />Pete Nordstedhttp://petenordsted.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-7550585381956030722013-07-09T13:10:13.630+01:002013-07-09T13:10:13.630+01:00Ed Smith in his new book "Luck' (well wor...Ed Smith in his new book "Luck' (well worth a read) describes how some sports are similar to Chess (like Tennis) where the better player/team usually wins whilst other are more like Backgammon (especially Baseball) where there is a much higher level of chance involved but where skill wins through over time.<br /><br />I know from my own betting I am much better at baseball than sports such as tennis. First of all, I enjoy baseball more, I get into the detail of it more, and I like the mix of skill and luck involved and accept it in my betting patterns.<br /><br />Re divisional away dogs, I think there is a slight benefit vs non-divisional away dogs but, as you suggest, it needs other filters before it is profitable.<br /><br />Running the numbers from 1999 onwards (not a best fit start point, just when I have data from) the win-loss results are:-<br /><br />All div away dogs (W-L) 4059-5609 42.0%<br />All non div away dogs 5198-7752 40.1%<br /><br />A lot of that difference, however, disappears when you look by price band<br /><br />Price band +100 to+125<br /><br />Div away dogs 2059-2466 45.5%<br />Non-div away dogs 1380-1682 45.1%<br /><br />Price band +126 or more<br /><br />Div away dogs 2000-3413 38.9%<br />Non-div away dogs 3818-6070 38.6%fizzer555https://www.blogger.com/profile/08039129722970635303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-56193626619666981412013-07-09T11:23:18.504+01:002013-07-09T11:23:18.504+01:00"On any day any team can beat any other"..."On any day any team can beat any other". <br /><br />Yes but so what? You can say the same about any sport, infact that's whay we watch it. It really is the most ridiculous platitude.<br /><br />The question is not can team A beat team B but are the odds for doing so better than the bookmaker's assessment. <br /><br />Looking at Pete's post to me he seems in grave danger of falling into the data mining/backfitting trap. <br /><br />It would be interesting to compare Pete's results to the PECOTA 2013 season forecasts, it might give some guidance through the fog.<br /><br />Pete - do you know a lot about Baseball or did you get interested thinking you could make money from betting on the games?<br /><br />I have an explanation for the triple XXX - Pete must have been using Bingo and Adster's 'draw inflation tool'.<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01800039267651942286noreply@blogger.com