tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post6429098661627422035..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Behind The NumbersCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-10741614750595431392010-11-12T09:15:21.551+00:002010-11-12T09:15:21.551+00:00Thanks for your explaination. I still think I woul...Thanks for your explaination. I still think I would base my results on the 1X2 markets instead of making goal difference compared to the expected win margin the key factor, because opposed to the financial market, there is a treshold for winning and exceeding this threshold doesn't bring you much. However, your system seems to be working for you and your picks usually make sense (look like they are value), so you must be onto something. <br /><br />The only thing that seems out of line to me is that some of the very weak vs very strong teams have too much of an expected goal difference, compared to the asian handicap markets. While it is possible that you are getting value, I doubt that the asians are off by as much as .75 to a full goal. <br /><br />Anyway, thanks for the explaination on how you shape your rating system and your reasons for doing it like this.Joepnoreply@blogger.com