tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post7181810556710086900..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: HomeworkCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-40807908629938428992013-11-10T21:09:44.559+00:002013-11-10T21:09:44.559+00:00Well for proof look at it this way; I dug up your ...Well for proof look at it this way; I dug up your results from last year.<br /><br />Amateurs- -115.26, -9.61%ROI Over 1199 selections.<br /><br />The spreads/commissions are certainly not large enough to eat up a 9.61% ROI and 1199 bets is a good enough sample to say this isn't variance.<br /><br />What's more as you note on that very post, this -9.61% ROI has this positive selection effect that the worst betters were disproportionately likely to quit in the middle. Had they stayed, it would probably have been a lot worse.<br /><br />This is a very rough proof, but I think it's enough to justify what to me is intuitively obvious, that there is such a thing as being really bad at betting without knowing anything whatsoever, and thus reversing those tendencies must necessarily demonstrate a handsome profit.<br /><br />Empnoreply@blogger.com