tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post7589711144950168370..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: SpecialisationCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-41711485715082670652010-08-30T15:58:09.692+01:002010-08-30T15:58:09.692+01:00To beat the market consistently it's imperativ...To beat the market consistently it's imperative to take into account the other factors aside from ratings themselves. <br /><br />Pure ratings can be misleading for reasons discussed. If you can integrate information into ratings as you go along then you have taken a big step forward and the ratings will be more accurate. If you don't, then the raw ratings become more and more meaningless as you ignore more and more factors. <br /><br />To simply discard all information, such as red cards is folly. Of course there's a difference between a first minute sending off and one in the 90th minute. Research and analysis is required to help estimate the impact.<br /><br />The comments on Drogba, with respect, are a little naive. Of course you're right in saying there's a big difference between replacing him with a youth player or a £30m superstar. But you have that information and should therefore use it. Again, research and analysis is required to estimate the impact. It can be done.<br /><br />The small things make a (relatively) small difference. However, given any edge in these markets can also generally be considered to be small, then these things take on high significance and are often the difference between value and non-value prices. Yes, it can be time consuming to keep on top of them - yet another reason for specialisation.<br /><br />There is also one crucial factor evident in (virtually) every game. You've kind of touched on it in a recent post. It's key to success and has been the subject of a huge amount of research over the years although I am yet to see academics quite get to the bottom of it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-75467115186696582952010-08-29T15:07:31.047+01:002010-08-29T15:07:31.047+01:00this is an area that can be quite lucrative if you...this is an area that can be quite lucrative if you specialise in it. As you say, you're either a raw ratings man or you get heavily into team selections. Bettorlogic (.com) have a section called PlayerLogic, which measures the impact of a player by results. Not just Drogba and Torres, but also the unsung players - you can set the query yourself. Basing it on selections is even more effective at a lower level where few punters know any more than the top goalscorer.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15580349973739747085noreply@blogger.com