tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post8664534859907374909..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Time MachineCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-77974261049652037782015-07-06T17:15:13.851+01:002015-07-06T17:15:13.851+01:00Sorry, this example is very badly written so lets ...Sorry, this example is very badly written so lets try again:<br /><br />Example 1<br /><br />- 1- One time, I layed a team (team A) that was winning 1-0 in the second half because the odd dropped a lot and I thought it was too low. I was unaware that the odd dropped because team B had already made the three subs and a player that was being assisted didn´t recovered. 1 minute later, i was already in a substantial red position and I notice that my team (team B) is playing with 10 men; i immediately edge my <br />position, the 8 seconds start to count but team B draws the game before. Final result: a four digit win.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07743005756893231031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-51664786010155929012015-07-06T17:03:10.339+01:002015-07-06T17:03:10.339+01:00*In example one: i layed a team that was winning 1...*In example one: i layed a team that was winning 1-0<br /><br />My mistake!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07743005756893231031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-67693297806914091982015-07-06T16:23:23.669+01:002015-07-06T16:23:23.669+01:00Hi Cassini!
I am long-time lurker of your blog an...Hi Cassini!<br /><br />I am long-time lurker of your blog and a big fan of your writing and your opinions, <br />which I consider to be always witty. <br /><br />These latest posts about whether it is possible or not to be a profitable casual trader, have been very interesting and made me want to contribute to the discussion!<br /><br />So, as a brief presentation on myself I exclusively live trade football markets from my sofa since 2007<br /> and I view myself as a part-time trader although this classification is somewhat ambiguous. <br />I certainly have traded thousands of hours by now (specially in the first years!) and i´ve been stepping down slowly as I´m getting older and the time is harder to find.<br /><br />Beginning by the end, my answer to the question in debate is: not impossible, but almost!<br /><br />So in football markets (as in all sports...i guess), there´s two parts of the equation: the market and the game. <br />In my opinion, if you don´t have a technological edge (court-siding), you have to be very good in your understanding of one of the parts and world-class in the other,<br /> to be a successful casual trader! Even if you accomplish this, you also have to at least evidence appropriate psychological skills as trading can be the ultimate mindfuck!<br /><br />In terms of the market, there is a lot of content that you can read to understand the basics, but from a certain point nobody will explain you the why´s or when´s. <br />The only way to learn is to spend loads of time trading, which can be very frustrating as you will be most likely losing money. <br />It took me 3 years to be able to break even, and I started losing a good amount of money. The easier option is to quit before you have a fair understanding of how the forces in the markets work.<br /><br />In terms of the game, if you don´t like the sport or you didn´t watch it as a fan, the chance of succeeding is very slim. Then, there is no manual on how you should watch a game of football in terms of<br /> trading. Again, nobody will tell you how to do it and you have to spend a lot of time watching football outside the games you trade to stand a chance.<br /><br />Then, you have to harmonize your knowledge of football with your knowledge of the market and try to figure the hardest part: what is a EV+ decision?<br /><br />Two examples:<br />1- One time, I layed a team that was losing 1-0 in the second half because the odd dropped a lot and I thought was too low. I was unaware that the odd dropped because the team had already made the three subs and <br />a player that was being assisted didn´t recovered. 1 minute later, i was already in a good <br />red position and I notice that my team is playing with 10 men; i immediately edge my <br />position, <br />the 8 seconds start to count but my team draws the game before. Final result: a four digit win.<br /><br />2- I was backing a team that by my interpretation of the game was great value, there is a corner kick against this team, and also an aggression that results in a red card for a player of the team i´m backing, <br />market suspended and a goal from the corner kick. Final result: a four digit loss.<br /><br />These examples are too drastic, but my point is that without a lot of experience and emotional intelligence there is a grey area between EV+ and EV-, <br />that is very hard to master as you can win money from mistakes and the other way round.<br /><br />As a final analogy, i would say sport trading is a war where people fight with different weapons: automatic rifles, pistols, knives, sticks or even water-guns. <br />If you have a knife you have to be way more careful than those guys with the rifles!<br /><br />Best regards<br /><br />Ps: I don´t know a lot about tennis trading (that is being discussed here) but i think the effect of court-siding makes life harder for tennis traders than for football traders <br />because <br />the tennis markets are way faster and more volatile and have infinitely more crucial events that football (goals and red cards vs loads of break-points).Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07743005756893231031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-12124269882815030212015-07-05T17:45:42.294+01:002015-07-05T17:45:42.294+01:00Yes, Matt is definitely a full time trader. He is ...Yes, Matt is definitely a full time trader. He is involved in stock exchanges and has a budget the most only can dream about. His main strategy are low lays against big favourites. Often there is a lot of value, because the average Johnny Punter backs them very low. I am a bit surprised that Matt didn't trade out earlier. Heather was trading at 1.45 (well perhaps it was still value, but not so much anymore when you consider the comeback qualities of Serena) and I can bet that Matt went in big to lay Serena at 1.01 to 1.05. <br /><br />Back to tennis trading... every professional started small. For me there are three ingredients to trade successful (tennis). The most important is the mind. You have to close bad trades early and make the best of green ones. Most spare time traders do the opposite. It's natural that you don't like to lose as human. So - even when the loss is small - it's difficult to accept it. It doesn't wonder me that Matt closed the trade with a small profit and not with a small loss. This topic is discussed in the book "trading in the zone". <br /><br />The second ingredient - also very important - is the knowledge of markets and players. There are good and bad lays of 1.01-1.05. To lay Djoko since the start is rarely good value. You really have to know the players, markets and patterns. In my opinion there is no chance for Johnny Punters, which just trade the Wimbledon final. Especially tennis trading needs a lot knowledge of the players. They often do the same things, because is a mental single sport and the psychology can't be changed that quick. <br /><br />The third ingredient is a strategy you trust. You can't copy&paste from the internet. You have to find your own way. If you start with tennis trading it's good to get some ideas of other traders, but you will recognize that some things will not fit your behaviour. If you don't feel comfortable you will fail.<br /><br />It sounds easy, but because there are three important (and not that easy) ingredients, most hobby traders fail. Most of them think that it's enough to have a good strategy which they downloaded from internet. In the end is hard work (knowlege of players, markets and pattern) and a strong mentality (most of us are weak and lose the nerves when things go against us).<br /><br />I am with you (Cassini) for most home part time traders, it's not possible to succeed. Right now I do the effort of a full timer, that's the reason why I think I can be successful. <br /> Brulatihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02889878882946803348noreply@blogger.com