tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post876681635064436402..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Scaling DownCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-11456996612813930442010-08-20T13:22:52.946+01:002010-08-20T13:22:52.946+01:00Good to see you back posting! Hope the wedding wen...Good to see you back posting! Hope the wedding went ok and married life is treating you well. Good luck with the ELO's this season. Edgar Davids at Selhurst Park eh ? Who'd of thought that....<br /><br />TalkbetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-32212540307429072702010-08-20T09:02:56.400+01:002010-08-20T09:02:56.400+01:00Lat year chelsea got 34 points away from home. Thi...Lat year chelsea got 34 points away from home. This makes them only as good as Blackburn or Sunderland are at home.<br /><br /><br />How do you adjust for home/away form in your ratings? I'm guessing an away win is worth more? But often teams have very different home/away personalities; like villa last year who were great on the counter attack when away but struggled to break down teams at home - they ended 3rd in the Away league table, 12th in the Home league table.<br /><br />If I were running an Elo rating system I'd treat the Home team and Away team as separate entities.<br /><br />Saying all that though it does make me feel more confident when my weekend punts match your 2 goal superiority picks!!<br /><br />Cheers, DannyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-55474498064622029582010-08-20T07:33:22.804+01:002010-08-20T07:33:22.804+01:00I can confidently state a team has never been a 2....I can confidently state a team has never been a 2.5 goal favourite away from home in the Premiership. And nor are Chelsea this weekend.<br /><br />Easiest explanation for your number would be the 8-0 at Stamford Bridge and, i assume, an over-reaction from your model.<br /><br />Do you do anything to help smooth the extreme results?<br /><br />Also, something is seriously flawed if you have a team with an expected one goal superioroity at 2.27 to win.<br /><br />And a 1/4 goal difference should generally be worth approx 6% at popular superiorities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com