tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post9055275654991584796..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: (Not So) Super AlCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-633812676285377462010-12-09T14:43:45.191+00:002010-12-09T14:43:45.191+00:00I'd like to see data - but I doubt 50% of the ...I'd like to see data - but I doubt 50% of the managers in the "next manager markets" that have traded evens or below have then gone on to be settled as the winner.<br /><br />I would add a rider. I'd get involved in any one where the vibe from the club is that an appointment "wont be made overnight". I recall the next spurs manager market some years ago where 4 or 5 traded at evens or below - its certainly not the only time it has happened. <br /><br />Judgement on the time frame the market will be open for is essential. Then, if getting involved, the only sensible way to do so is a layer of the short prices. These markets are BADLY inefficient - and that should be the trader's best friend.<br /><br />There's more paranoia than usual in these markets - but I would be stunned if (H R excluded) the majority of money that went on was real "informed" or "smart" money. Aside from anything else, the volumes matched (the infamous 16 million market excluded) are tiddly, especially in comparison to the people who REALLY know what's going on, not "my dad's hairdresser works in the boot room", which is the usual source of such "sure bets".<br /><br />They are markets where the layers of short prices will make money over time - especially if they are sensible about when they get involved. IMO of course.mouldhousehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17214196136374354948noreply@blogger.com