tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post9071050672490436730..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Big Home DogsCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-86201413151192131412011-01-03T12:08:07.307+00:002011-01-03T12:08:07.307+00:00Hi Cassini,
This is very interesting and somethin...Hi Cassini,<br /><br />This is very interesting and something I've looked at myself. However the data I've used gives different results to you, but then I’ve only analysed results from 2000 to 2010.<br /><br />For the 10 seasons I've looked at, the number of games where home teams are big dogs is pretty small from a statistical point I think. Can too much be read into these games? For example, I only make it 45 games in total where home teams have had between 12 and 16 points given them, and even then don’t see an advantage to these spreads overall.<br /><br />The spreads where I do see advantages are pretty small, although I actually think road underdogs seem to perform better at a small number of these. <br /><br />Overall, I see it as amazingly close; with home wins ATS at 48.82% and road wins ATS at 49.27% (with 1.91% of ATS games ending in a push). If that's right, then the LVSC guys do some pretty amazing work!<br /><br />I can’t be totally confident in my results, as the lines are all closing lines, but I’m not sure how they were calculated (i.e. one bookie, or an average of several). <br /><br />I could have also got something drastically wrong in my analysis of course.<br /><br />If you wanted to share the results, I’d be happy to send along what I’ve done so far. I’m also interested in finding other sources of data, as like I say, I’m not 100% confident in the one I have.<br /><br />All the best,<br />The One Armed TraderAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com