tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post9091032075360572690..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Bad BettorsCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-60991109037855303302013-11-12T05:50:33.768+00:002013-11-12T05:50:33.768+00:00It's quite an honor to be in a post titled ...It's quite an honor to be in a post titled 'Bad Bettors'. <br /><br />First I will address why the change from regulation betting to moneyline in my NHL bets. The simple answer is to get value. There are sections of the season in which certain teams play to overtime more frequently and of course the opposite is true. If I can get more value (from my model) then it only makes sense. My current feeling is that the implied probability from the odds haven't caught up to this in some cases. Last season was really different with the lockout shortening the NHL schedule.<br /><br />I'm not defending NBA Tips methods. I don't know who it is or how he/she comes up with selections. This person may have an edge, there really is no way to tell with such a small sample size. That is one of the toughest things about sports betting, getting a large enough sample size to know if the system has an edge. <br /><br />I think being a fan of the sport is necessary to be successful at betting on it. It's like the engine on a car, you need the motor for the car to work but you need the steering wheel, brakes, etc. Betting on (American) football determining team weaknesses, changes in personnel, etc. are the other parts of the car. At the same time you can have a system that has worked in the past but if you don't know why it has, you could be in dangerous territory. You have to have the motor in the car for it to work. I've played football, coached football, watch every NFL game. The NFL network is on my television all summer. NBA Tips could be the same with a system that accounts for every factor. <br /><br />Public knowledge is different now than even 5 years ago with so much information being accessible from a phone. My NFL model didn't suggest Tampa Bay was value in the game that just finished. I really thought the implied probability wasn't taking the whole Dolphin offensive linemen situation as enough of a factor. Miami had a patchwork line with a split dressing room and what sounded to me like very little leadership. Not to mention the distraction for the game. Although, the second half of this game is the most impressed I've been by the Dolphins all season considering the previous factors coupled with being down at the half on the road.John Walshnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-16600467767934318392013-11-11T11:29:08.357+00:002013-11-11T11:29:08.357+00:00Cassini thanks for the FTL update. How you are abl...Cassini thanks for the FTL update. How you are able to manage all these entries is an organisational miracle in itself!<br /><br />With regard to the FTL, I think it would only be fair to award 12 points to anyone who backed West Brom at Chelsea on Saturday, seeing as the Chelsea penalty decision was one of the most SCANDALOUS in the history of the game and a total fraud in my opinion.<br /><br />I think it only proper that FTL stands up for fair play and as the politicians like to say 'It's the right thing to do'.Danny Murphynoreply@blogger.com