tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post9173068177856944442..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Strength In NumbersCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-64200831316317558112010-10-25T12:39:50.420+01:002010-10-25T12:39:50.420+01:00You need to take a reality check sometimes.
For, ...You need to take a reality check sometimes.<br /><br />For, say, an average 1 goal football favourite, the chances of them winning by 1 are very close to the chance of them winning by 2. So I don't quite understand the need to pat yourself on the back quite so much when they win by 1. Had they won by 2, equally (almost) likely, it wouldn't mean your ratings are wrong any more than winning by 1 means your ratings are correct.<br /><br />In fact, of course, ratings are never "right" as there's no right answer. You can only use all possible existing information in the best manner possible. And that information is constantly changing. Therefore, ratings should be constantly changing. Yet you are (i believe), effectively betting that your ratings will remain constant.<br /><br />The folly of your back patting is perhaps better illustrated in a sport like NFL. If you make a team a 5-point favourite, are you predicting / expecting a 5 point win? And is that the outcome you'll back? Good luck with that.<br /><br />You still show no understanding of value or ability to price matches. To simply back an outcome equivalent to the supremacy your ratings show is a pretty horrific approach to betting and shows a gross lack of understanding of pricing and hence value. You never mention how you would price up the outcome you "predict" and you are clearly not price sensitive.<br /><br />Attempting to predict outcomes isn't any sort of strategy for a pro. Value-seeking based on the expectancy of ALL different outcomes is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-63497680933748942672010-10-25T07:47:55.107+01:002010-10-25T07:47:55.107+01:00Hi- fascinating reading as always- what are you ba...Hi- fascinating reading as always- what are you basing the "strong draws" research on? is it your own stats or something that is widely availible? thanks<br /><br />www.fulltimebettingblog.comgeoffhttp://www.fulltimebettingblog.com/noreply@blogger.com