Daily Targets

I have written before on here how it is my opinion that having daily targets is a bad idea. For one thing, value opportunities do not not come along with the same frequency. (Most sports have busy days and quiet days for example). Some days I do not find any value bets, and on other days I might find two in the space of two minutes. Quitting for the day upon reaching an arbitrary profit is senseless, and of course the other problem with setting a short term target is that you put pressure on yourself to meet that target, and thus try to find an opportunity that really is not value.

Having said that, I do suffer from a strong reluctance to record a negative profit on any single day, which is really just as bad. I record the results of every market by sport every day and I know I have taken bets at bad value simply to show a profit. I guess the solution is to just look at the bottom line every month, but it's a hard habit to break. I find it immensely annoying to have to record even the smallest of daily losses. My longest run of profitable days is 42, my longest run of losing days is 4 in April 2007.

So, this is the only target I have, as such. Other levels that I like to beat each day, but that I can honestly say do not factor into my decision making at all, are my 10 and 30 day moving averages, my one year moving average, my all-time average, and my current year average. I like to beat these because if I don't, it's no big deal but my charts take a dip and that is not pleasing to me. Obviously the 10 and 30 day averages are particularly volatile so the key ones for me are the 1 year moving average, and the all-time daily average.

I also enjoy beating the daily average income for full-time male employees (£71.15 per day) and females (£56.29). As I've said before, numbers are fun.

Marychain1 on Liverpool v Liege

A great post on the Betfair Forum today, following the Liverpool v Liege game (Liverpool won in extra-time after a goalless 90 minutes)

Enitled: "Thank you, you f*****s, cost me my bank"

"This is an absolute disgrace!!! How the f*** can that bunch of jokers not win against those amateurs??? What an absolute ******* joke!!!! I had my WHOLE BANK riding on them!!! How can they not even score one goal. I'm going f*****g mental here. If I was the chairman I'd be sacking the manager first thing in the morning after this, and half the players would be following him out the door. I was embarrassed watching it. If you ask me they have made the whole country a laughing stock drawing 0-0 with this shower of ****. They certainly wont be getting a warm welcome back in Liege if they can't even beat Liverpool."

Very entertaining, and caught a good number of people as well. Thanks for the laugh.

Football Favourite-Longshot Bias

Towards the end of the football 2007-08 season, I paper traded a laying system that I have been developing for 391 matches.

Although this was a limited sample, the selection criteria did show some interesting trends which indicated that in the matches I selected, there was a significant favourite-longshot bias. I'm not going to get too carried away, but I am going to continue monitoring these matches and will play with a small bank for added interest.

Statistically, the system had 277 winners from 391 selections (70.84%) and made a (pre-commission) profit of £47.44. There were two Longest Losing Sequences of 5, although since many matches take place at the same time, and in many cases the sequence is alphabetical, this may not be too relevant.

Early lay selections for today are Leeds United and Rushden and Diamonds.

10k Swimming

I can be such an idiot at times. Having traded like a demon in the Channel 5 Angels / Rays game tonight, I then invest, no - gamble, my profits on an Olympic event I know nothing about, just because we have a chance of yet another Gold Medal. Why do I do these stupid things? I must have learned enough lessons to write a small guide to what NOT to do on Betfair.

I did get a little luckier earlier when I really thought the price on a new 200m world record by Usain Bolt was too low, and backed "No World Record". Then my brain kicked in, and I figured it actually wasn't that unlikely and layed off to go Green-All-Over and lucky I did. A very impressive performance. That record and the 100m too will come down again if he stays healthy. Pretty cool runnings.

And I thought Jamaica was only good for the Bobsled...

Approach v System

Someone on the Betfair Forum recently posted something sensible. Yes, yes, I know, it hardly seems possible, but occasionally someone actually posts something that is worth reading. Apologies for forgetting whoever it was, (I didn’t note your name down but I will post a link to this entry in the hope that you will claim credit for the idea), but anyway, his comment was that to be successful on Betfair, it is the ‘approach’ that is important and not any ‘system’.

I agree with this statement absolutely. In fact, it’s my approach that I have been fine-tuning since joining Betfair, although I didn’t consciously think of it that way before.

I’m not saying that I don’t believe that ‘systems’ never work (they do if they always represent value), but the poster was spot on when he said that success or failure lies with the overall approach. Having been a Betfair investor for over four years now, I have five golden rules (mostly learned the hard-way) as to what attributes an ‘approach’ needs to have.

1. Software – never invest when you are tired, emotional or when you are euphemistically tired AND emotional. (Drinking and smart decision making have never gone together very well. How many of us would be here today if that were the case?)

2. Hardware – have reliable computer equipment and internet connection and a back-up. There is nothing more frustrating than being unable to exit a position due to a technical glitch.

3. Discipline – never be in a hurry to invest. Wait for an opportunity that looks like value, but never bet just for the sake of it. Some days there may be nothing to bet on. That’s ok, tomorrow there may be a hundred. For this reason I do not advocate having short-term goals. They sound fine in theory, but they put pressure on one to invest when one shouldn’t and vice-versa, to stop investing when one should be making hay. Also, and this should go without saying, never bet more than you are comfortable losing. The fact that a bet is good value is no guarantee that it will win. Expect the worst, understand that the bet was a good bet even if it lost, and look at the long-term picture.

4. Specialise – concentrate on what you’re good at. I have a number of sports and markets that I just can’t get ahead on so I just stay away from them and focus on those markets that I do understand and that make me money.

5. Records – keep accurate records. It is a well known trait of gamblers to remember (and inflate) the wins and forget the losses (ask a gambler how he’s done over the past year and the answer is usually “won a few, lost a few, slightly ahead overall”) but to see exactly what works and what doesn’t, it is essential that you keep track of your results. Numbers don’t lie. I have a spreadsheet dating back to 1/1/06 (one of the few New Year’s resolutions that I have actually kept for more than a week) and it allows me to plot fancy charts and calculate moving averages to my heart’s content.

Update: The poster who deserves the credit for inspiring this post has been identified and goes by the Forum Name of JPG.

Olympics, the US and John Cleese

So the Olympics doesn't open until Friday, but the games have begun (if you can call women's football a game). Just kidding ladies. When the last Olympics took place, I was a novice on Betfair, and aside from a teeny win on Water Polo one quiet Saturday, I don't recall getting involved very much. This year will probably be the same. Laying the USA men's basketball team at 1.36 could be good. Their NBA superstars often don't gel very well (as is the case in the Ryder Cup), and for other teams, they are the team to beat. Also other teams have a healthy starting line-up of NBA players themseves - Spain and Argentina to name but two.

Why is it that with the exception of basketball, the big sports in the US are games that hardly any other country plays? Reminds me of the old John Cleese joke (circa 1998), when asked by an American talk-show host what the difference were between the US and Britain:

"1. We speak English and you don't"

"2. In England, when we have a World Championship, we invite teams from other countries to take part"

"3. When WE meet our head of State, we only have to go down on ONE knee"

August Baseball

As some of you may have noticed, I pretty much took July off, but I am now back and raring to go with the new football season and the NFL just around the corner, but I start today with a look at baseball.

With the All-Star game behind us, the baseball season really starts to become meaningful. Probably the surprise team of the season is the Tampa Bay Rays who without the Devil in their name are giving the Red Sox and the Yankees a good run this year in the American League East. I expect the Rays to fade as they are currently exceeding their expected win/loss ratio (based on runs scored and runs conceded) by a few games and these things usually level out over a season. In the AL West, the ridiculously named Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are currently proving to be the best team in baseball, while in the Central Division there’s a tight race between the Twins and the White Sox.

In the National League, I am expecting to see the addition of Manny Ramirez help the Dodgers to overtake the Diamondbacks in the West, whilst in the East there’s a tight race between three contenders – the Phillies, Marlins and Mets with the Marlins my tip to fade away. In the Central Division the Cubs should be too strong for the Brewers and may well end the season as the best team overall in the MLB.

From an investment viewpoint, the beauty of baseball is that on any day, any team can beat any other. One swing of the bat can score four runs, or at the other extreme, can result in a triple play.

Simon Jordan

In the News of the World today there's an article about Crystal Palace chairman Simon Jordan and his opinions on football. As always, he is outspoken, but I do believe that much of what he says is the truth. Should players such as Ronaldo honour the contracts that they sign? Is any player worth £150,000 a week? “The reality is that football is a bullshit world - an insidious, insipid, egotistical, greedy, self-motivated game,” stormed Jordan.

Now I do have to declare upfront that Crystal Palace are, and always have been, my team. They were my local team when I was a lad, the first team I ever saw play live, and they were a big part of my life for many years. Not so much now. Like Jordan, I am somewhat disillusioned with the beautiful game, and pick and choose my games rather than blindly attend every game. Getting older and having responsibilities opens your eyes a little, but the comment I want to make here is that I believe football at the top level in this country is living in a bubble. How long can it be before supporters realise that they are being ripped off. Ticket prices are high, the cost of very average food and drink is excessive and once economic hardships start to hit home, football is one if the first luxury items that will go. And I don't think people will miss it nearly as much as they might think.

Football has changed in my years of watching it. As I wrote in a previous post, the days when any one of a dozen teams stood a chance of winning the league have gone. Winning is as boring as losing. The excitement in sport comes from the outcome being unknown. How exciting can it be for a Chelsea fan watching a home fixture against Hull City (and nothing against Hull City - they have done fantastically well in the last few years, and I wish them well) knowing that anything less than a solid win would be a disappointment?

And the Big Four are just going to get bigger. Read the latest transfer rumours to see what is happening. And the Big Four is really the Big Two and the Not Quite So Big Two. If Chelsea and Manchester United don't finish first and second in the Premier League, now what a shock that would be!

I for one am disillusioned with it all at the top level. Lucky for me that Palace aren't up there I guess, (I can enjoy seeing my team as a relatively big fish, but not so big as to make games irrelevant) but am I the only one who now takes far more interest in the non-League game than ever before?

Admittedly a lot of this is because from a betting standpoint there is far more value to be found non-league, but the leagues are competitive and games are fun to watch.

We are approaching a 'Tipping Point' and when we do reach it, the drift away from top-level football will be fast.

Simon Jordan speaks a lot of sense. The 'people's game' is not their game any more, and one day they will realise this. Football needs more people like Simon Jordan.

Brazilian Brush

I don't do the horses because as I have said previously, there is too much insider information in horse racing to which I am not privy, and I believe the sport is corrupt, so I stay away. Perhaps a good job tonight, because a commentator by the name of Mike Cattermole (ATR) called the wrong horse (Brazilian Brush) as the winner when it didn't even place, and someone (or someones I hope) had over £51k backing it at 1.01. And I believe the real winner traded for a small amount at 1000. Probably didn't seem a small amount to the layer.

Nostalgia Ain't What It Used To Be

There was a time, back in my youth, when any one of maybe ten teams had a realistic chance of winning Division One. The League Championship. By the time I reached 18, no fewer than 11 different clubs had won the title, and no team had won it more than 3 times. Indeed only once had the title been won back-to-back. [Quiz time, what year was I born?]

How different from today when the first 16 years of the Premier League have yielded just 4 different winners, with one team winning no fewer than 10 of them. Checking the prices for next season, and there are just four teams rated with a realistic chance of winning and there's no prizes for guessing the teams. Just a reality of the game today I realise, but I do think the old days were better. Sad that the best that 80% of the teams can aspire to next season is to challenge for fourth place.

Incidentally, if you're thinking of dabbling in this market, check around. I was a little surprised to see that odds better than those currently available on Betfair for next season's winner are currently available with BetFred (Chelsea at 3.25), VC Bet (Arsenal at 6.5 and Liverpool at 9). Man Utd are best priced on Betfair at 2.6.

Germany Value

Today sees the final of a very entertaining Euro 2008, with steady Germany playing a very impressive looking Spain. Germany's run reminds me of the way they un-inspiringly progressed to the 2002 World Cup Final only to lose to the better Brazil.

I think the same will happen today and Spain will triumph but having said that I think the value is in backing Germany with a view to laying the bet off at maybe half-time. Germany are available at 2.54 outright and I plan to lay this off at half-time if the game is tied or Germany are ahead. If Spain lead, then I shall await Germany to do what they seem to do quite often and manufacture a result when they are not the better team.

And although the under/over 2.5 goals market is off-limits to me today, I wouldn't discourage a bet on the unders with a view to laying it off after 15 minutes. These finals are usually low-scoring affairs. Usually.

PS: Thanks for all the comments on trading the under/over 2.5 goals market post. Good stuff.

In-Play Over/Under Futility

Graeme, who writes the very readable http://theexperiment-self-indulgentbullshit.blogspot.com/ blog, made a comment on my earlier “Pants Down” post that is worthy of a full post in reply.

“Why are you playing around on these under-over markets?”, he asked.

Well, that’s a very good question. Why am I? Boredom? Eternal optimism? I have played the over/under markets on and off pretty much from day one (March 2004) on Betfair. The appeal is that when you are on the unders, time is your friend and it’s nice to watch your position move into the money. Very nice and seductive. The problem is that it is not so nice when out of the blue comes a goal and just like that your small potential gain has turned into a potentially large loss.

The problem is finding the optimum market entry and exit points, but sadly, there is no hard and fast rule on this. Some games it pays to be on at the start, other games it pays to wait until a few minutes in, and other games it pays to not get involved with at all!

The exit point of course needs to be just prior to a goal is scored. Sounds easy enough…

After a loss, I quit playing these markets, and then one day there’s not much going on, and out of boredom I look at the football game that is currently in-play. Then I dip my toes in the water, splash around for a few minutes, exit the water making a few quid in a few minutes, and think to myself “That was easy”. And the cycle begins again. A few wins, then the one loss that wipes out the previous few weeks profits, and it’s back to square one.

I have had some success this season with making a reasonably large bet pre-game on matches I consider likely to end as unders, and then laying it off after 15 minutes. Last night’s Copa Libertadores final was the worst possible outcome, with not just one early goal, but two, and the bet was lost after 20 minutes or so. It finished at 4-2 but I had long since given up on it. I am still ahead on the season though, but more by luck than skill I suspect.

My thoughts right now are that the market is too efficient in these games, and that there is seldom an edge. Occasionally the market goes over-round so that you can lay the overs, then lay the unders for a profit, but the delay means that you are exposed for several seconds and the reward is miniscule.

Does anyone out there make these markets pay long-term?

I read a system which said to back the unders if the game was a draw at half-time, and leave it for 10 to 15 minutes. Sounds a bit like my backing pre-game and laying off after 15 minutes, but do any stats back up these ideas? I tend to think that everything is already factored into the price and any wins or losses are down to luck which is just gambling, and I am an investor, so no more in-play over/under betting.

I Can't Stand 'Loosing'

Why do so many people on the Betfair forum or indeed, in the Football Guerilla Betting System that I am currently reviewing (for free), not know how to LOSE?

E.g. “Take a break for awhile so you can get that loosing feeling out of your mind.” (from the afore mentioned Betting System which people are being asked to PAY for). What is a 'loosing' feeling?

The word is ‘losing’ – not ‘loosing’!

‘Lose’ means you didn’t win. You didn’t even get your money back. You lost!

‘Loose’ means not rigidly fastened or securely attached. Wobbly.

References: The Police: Can’t Stand Losing You, REM: Losing My Religion, Righteous Brothers: You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin'

http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/lose.html

Losing is bad enough as it is, without making it worse...

Pants Down

For two reasons. I got caught with them down in the final of the Copa Libertadores tonight when two goals in the first 8 minutes saw my pre-game back of the under 2.5 goals go down the pan to the tune of £900, a major dent in June's profits, (and when I tell her, June will not be at all happy), and secondly because I deserve a good arse kicking for putting my money on a bunch of long-haired, jewellery wearing macho men who can't defend and thank an invisible man in the sky every time they score. Yes, I'm a little peed off right now!

When will I learn? I think now is a good time. I lost money in the final last year, and just three weeks ago got (metaphorically) killed by a goal two minutes into stoppage time, so it is time to give up trading football in-play and stick with what I'm good at.

I have more luck with betting on football pre-game and letting it run, and am convinced that with discipline and patience and a solid selection system, the rewards are out there. My problem is that I get impatient, and jump in and out of markets when the game is on and after three years I think the message is that I do not have an edge, and I need to stop. Message received and understood.

Cold Hard Cash BS

I have just finished reading a (free) copy of the Cold Hard Cash (CHC) Betting System, first published in 2004, and what a pile of garbage it is. It consists of 28 pages of poorly written prose, the first 21 of which not only have nothing to do with the system, but are full of mistakes.

Anyone heard of the ‘Martindale’ staking system? Me neither, and that is by no means the only error contained within.

Anyway, the introduction is so painful to read that I can’t bring myself to spend any time on it at all, well, other than to generously point out that he warns readers to be wary of the scams and BS that are out there on the Internet… Oh the irony.

As for the system itself, it’s for football betting. Teams within a division are rated based on last season’s finishing positions from 100 for the bottom team in increments of 100 so that in say the Premier League the top team is rated 2,000.

Here is the meat of the system:

“As teams play each other they effectively bet 10% of their score/rating on the outcome of the game. E.g if Manchester United (score 2000) play Bolton (score 1200) Manchester would risk 200 on the outcome and Bolton 120. The winner of the match takes the 320 points. So if Bolton won their new score/rating would be 1520 and Manchester United would be reduced to 1800”.

“CHC looks for matches where there is at least a 1200 - point advantage to the home team. No matter how strong the advantage of the away team I do not bet on the away win. Partly because I know how I feel after a long car journey, my energy levels are low, I am tired and the last thing I want to do is run around. However, the main reason I don’t bet is, I believe this is always the best opportunity for the underdog to do a bit of giant killing. The home team is in familiar circumstances, the players have their wives, girlfriends, mistresses and family watching and they have thousands of fans cheering them on to vistory!”.

“Expect odds of around 1.5. Be suspicious of odds over 2.2. If the odds are below 1.3 consider using a betting exchange or placing the bet in a double..”

And that is basically it. Back short-priced home favourites! No mention of value at all. Back whether the selection is 1.01 or 2.18 I suppose. No mention of what happens to the ratings when a team draws. All in all a very poor effort. At least if you are going to sell a rubbish system, make it well-written and tart it up a little.

This is actually a simplified version of a system featured in an excellent book called “The Punter’s Revenge” written by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth which I purchased when it was first published back in 1986 just as home computers were becoming commonplace.

Based on the Elo rating system then used in Chess, the book suggested rating teams initially around an average of 1,000, and then adjusting them after each game with the home team ‘risking’ 7% of its rating, and the away team ‘risking’ 5%. In the event of a draw, the two teams would receive back 50% of the ‘risked’ points.

I actually used a modified version of this system quite profitably back in the days of betting shops and fixed odds coupons, but it was a lot of work maintaining those ratings after each match. Admittedly I monitored all 92 league teams for an entire season which may have been a little ambitious in those pre-Internet days, but surely someone out there with a little more talent than me could automate this and publish up-to-date ratings. Thinking about it, if it worked well in the days of fixed odds and bookies, it might be worth a shot today with Betfair.

By the way, if anyone would like to buy the CHC system from me, well - you can't.

But I will e-mail it to you for free...

And Then We Die

What are we trading for? The bottom line is surely “to improve our lives”. My social life for the past two and a half years has by necessity been seriously curtailed, but this has been a price worth paying because I have been able to make a very decent second income from it.

But what good is extra money if you never get a chance to really enjoy it, and drop dead from a heart-attack at the age of 60? Not much really. Life is short, and it’s easy to get caught up in the whirlwind of money-making and miss out on what is really important.

I have been looking at my spreadsheet which I have diligently maintained since January 1, 2006, and of the 905 days since then, I have traded on all but 69 of them. Family vacations and a trip to Germany for the World Cup account for most of those days, so many months I am trading every single day.

Is it worth it? In the short-term, the answer has to be 'yes', but where does it end? The expression ‘make hay while the sun shines’ comes to mind, because whilst for now I am able to make profits, I am well aware that this may not always be so. Markets can change in an instant.

Fortunately, I have a very understanding girlfriend who understands the rewards of what I do, but for many people I imagine this is not the case and relationships are suffering.

For now I shall carry on, but I do need to make a point of exercising regularly. I have noticed my weight start to increase slowly but steadily this year and I’m pretty sure that spending most of my spare time sitting on my arse trading is not the healthiest of lifestyles.

Anyone fancy a friendly challenge to see who can drop the most weight between now and Xmas? I’m at 16 stone 3.8lbs right now. First goal 16 stone. Time for another spreadsheet.

Forza Azzurri

My Italy replica shirt is donned, and the quarter-final with Spain is eagerly awaited. Admittedly influenced by my Italian heritage, I am laying Spain at 2.6, and at 4.7 in the outright winner market, and taking my usual approach of backing the Under 2.5 goals at 1.63. I shall probably only let this bet run for 10 minutes or so, before going Green-All-Over, but the odds do drop quite precipitously in that opening spell so it can be a relatively safe bet. Even with the disaster of an early goal, it would not be unusual to reach half-time with no further goals and be able to get out then.

All three group winners so far have lost, and I don't see why this run shouldn't continue today. Spain have looked impressive so far, but they rested a lot of players in their game against Greece, and that tactic doesn't always pay dividends with returning players a little rusty and losing their touch.

I had a dream about Betfair last night. Sad I know, but I find that after a long day on here, the brain is buzzing with odds and numbers and ideas and just doesn't know when it is time to turn off. Good luck.

Half-Time Update: I layed off the unders bet at 1.42 after 15 minutes, a nice profit for just a few minutes of increased heart rate. At least that's my workout for the day done with! And the Spain match odds bet has been backed back at 2.88. Come on Italy!

Russia - Netherlands

Although my usual strategy for quarter-finals is to back the under 2.5 goals and let it run, I have a feeling that this could be an open game. I'm on the unders for now, but in another ten minutes I shall lay that off (hopefully still 0-0 at 20:00) and hope for goals soon after.

I am still in shock at the finish to yesterday's game. Fortunately I avoided the carnage but I imagine there are a few people looking at significantly diminished balances today. I'm not averse to backing 1.01 shots because I feel that they are often value, but in football it is a dangerous game. I see that some money was put on Turkey at 1000 to win the whole tournament and now are at 15 / 15.5. Well done to someone. There must be a nervous layer right now.

Half-Time Update: £54.04 on unders, £54.00 on overs. Looking like unders right now, but a long way to go yet.

More Euro 2008

The football game of the day for me today is the Sweden - Russia game, and I am expecting a tight game and have gone with the unders. With half-time approaching and a goal by Russia, I shall be laying off at half-time as I quite expect Sweden to push for a goal this second half. The other game, Greece - Spain I am leaving alone for reasons outlined yesterday.

Call Me Roberto (For A Few Days Anyway)

So an Italian win tonight, coupled with Romania failing to win against the impressive looking Dutch, would see Italy advance to the Euro 2008 Quarter-Finals, and as I write this, the second-half is under-way, and Italy and the Netherlands both have one goal leads. From a betting standpoint, I'm always a little wary with these third group games. The first games are usually tight and good for the Unders. The second games tend to be a little more open, and favours the Overs. The third games are tricky - teams don't need to win, (sometimes they don't WANT to win), they rest players - bottom line is that strange things can happen. I backed the Unders in the Italy - France game expecting a tight first half and laid it off at half-time, so I can sit back and enjoy the second half. I left the Netherlands - Romania game alone, though there may have been some 'Dutching' opportunities...