Cursed Profits and 17 Years of Benford

Three winners out of four last weekend for the 'Curse' / Unders selections, although with both rested teams winning their games, 'curse' may be a little too strong a word. Hopefully some of you were along for the ride.

This weekend (Sunday) features the Championship games for the two conferences, with the Philadelphia Eagles at home to the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC and the Kansas City Chiefs v Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC. 

Both home teams are small favourites - the Eagles are currently giving 2.5 points while the Chiefs are giving just 1.5 points and as in the regular season, the value in these games is on the 'dog. 

All-time in playoff games, when the Road 'Dog is getting 3 points or fewer, they are 18-5-2 ATS, and 12-1-1 in the NFC. As always, a caution that these are small sample sizes. 

At 3.4 the Eagles are currently favourites to win the Superbowl in two weeks' time. 

There were also a couple of winners for the 'Close' Draw System in the EPL last weekend, with two of the three selections finishing as Draws, and all three as Under 2.5. These are still down on the season though, by 4.15 units from the 38 selections so far and with no games this weekend, that won't be changing any time soon.

Finally, for those of us who love our numbers, here are the updated numbers for my daily betting profits (and occasional losses) from 2006 through 2022 for Benford's Law: 

Seventeen years! Anyway, the numbers correlate pretty well, at least for 1 though 7, before they go a little wobbly. 

NFL Playoffs; Rest and Grass

Some of you may recall the post from last October which looked at whether receiving a bye was a gift or a curse, but as a reminder it's that weekend of the year in the NFL where the number one seeds from the regular season resume after a couple of weeks off. The sample size of games where one team has 7 or more days of rest than their opponent is not large of course, just 45 games, but I noted then that:

Another major sport that rewards its top regular season performers with a bye week is the NFL, and here the data since 2002 shows that the rested team underperforms with just a 36.4% record ATS.

The two rested teams this weekend are the Philadelphia Eagles (v New York Giants) and Kansas City Chiefs (v Jacksonville Jaguars) who are giving about 7.5 points and 9 points respectively. 

Both games are being played on grass, and while Unders is historically the bet on this surface in playoff games, in games where the home team has an extra week of rest, this has been the outcome in 64.3% of 28 such previous games. 

The Eagles v Giants game is also a divisional game and by now, we should all know about opposing the favourite in such games. 

Emotional Market

Although the sample size isn't huge, backing Away (or Road) underdogs in NFL playoff games is historically not the worst idea in the world with a 53.2% winning record against the spread and at least two winners in every season since the data begins in 2001. 

Already the current 2022 season has produced three such winners with the Miami Dolphins, New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens all covering. 

The Dolphins were getting 14 points against the Buffalo Bills, a number that seemed to me was possibly inflated by the emotional support for the Bills which followed the scare with Damar Hamlin a couple of weeks back. 

ESPN reported that:

The Miami Dolphins closed as consensus 14-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, making them the largest underdogs ever in a Wild Card game.

Since 2001 only two teams had been bigger playoff 'dogs, and while the value is usually on the smaller 'dogs, I took a chance that the market may have been wrong on this one.

ESPN continued: 

The game attracted the lopsided action on Buffalo, with the bulk of the money on the heavily-favored Bills minus the points and on the money-line (-1,000).

The Dolphins covering was good for the sportsbooks as well as those of us feeling contrarian about this game and not getting emotional. 

One more Wild Card game to go tonight - Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers  and all five so far have gone Over. 

Superbowl Favourites in the Playoffs

With the NFL's Wild Card Weekend in progress, courtesy of SportsOddsHistory here are the fates of the Superbowl favourite at the start of the playoffs. I've converted the US odds to decimal, but the original is in the link above. 

I'm suspicious about the 2007 season where the New England Patriots are shown as 1.25 at the start of the playoffs, but the recent trend of favourites not doing so well is apparent, with just one clear favourite (Patriots in 2016 at 2.4) and one joint favourite (Seattle Seahawks in 2013 at 3.5) going on to win the Superbowl since 2004.

In the second game last night, I layed the Los Angeles Chargers at 1.57 after they scored the first touchdown, but after throwing four interceptions in the first 25 minutes and trailing 0-27, I gave up hope for any Jacksonville Jaguars recovery and went to bed, waking up to find out that the Jaguars had completed the third biggest comeback in playoff history and won 31-30. 

Just a fun bet mind you, unlike this reckless individual who won't have had a pleasant Saturday evening:

 

Milestones and Mountains

A rare comment on the blog earlier this year, from Hkibuzz who wrote:

One more year of the blog in the bag. Thank you for your entertaining and instructive posts, and all the best for 2023

I only managed 74 posts in 2022, which was down on the long term average but slightly up on the 2021 total, and the total number of posts all-time since 2008 is now closing in on 3,000.

The number of hits is also likely to reach a significant milestone this year with three million probable by June or July. 

If I make it to March, and I have every intention of doing so, the coming of Spring will mark 15 full years of the blog. If this was a marriage, I'd be looking at a crystal gift to mark the occasion. 

Thanks to Hkibuzz for the comment, which are always appreciated, and I'm always on the lookout for any general betting / investing blogs to add to the blog roll so if you have any recommendations please let me hear them. 

The number seems to dwindle year by year, as the challenges of coming up with interesting topics as well as staying motivated when losing money prove insurmountable. It's easy to be enthusiastic about a project when things are going well, but a few losing weeks will soon change that.

I'm slightly annoyed that my bet on Georgia -13.5 wasn't matched in the College Football National Championship game last night given that TCU lost by 58 points, (7-65), but hindsight is a wonderful thing. 

TCU were big outsiders to even make the College playoffs, not even quoted among the top 17 teams.

I wrote about the NFL Regular season yesterday, and in a further reminder that results will always vary slightly, the corresponding numbers from the Killer Sports database are:

Underdogs vs. spread:143-119-6 (54.6%)

Road teams vs. spread: 130-129-6 (50.2%)

Unders: 146-114-5 (56.2%)

Pretty close, and one interesting observation is that Unders had its best season ever (since 1989), and of these 34 seasons, three of the top four for Unders have occurred since 2017. The Unders on grass (as opposed to artifical turf) pitches was 59.4% and an incredible 69.6% (39-17-1) in the NFC this season.

In other (personal) news, with 900 miles covered on foot since the start of September, it's hard to believe that two years ago on this day, I was in a little discomfort after breaking my leg in three places. Yeah, yeah - don't go to those three places again... 

Anyway, I just quizzed my wife with "what happened two years ago today?" (she hates it when I do that), and when I told her, she said "oh yeah, remember when the ambulance guy thought you were my Dad?" 

I'd actually erased that part of incident from my memory for some reason, but clearly it made an impression with Mrs. C and was actually quite funny. Clearly the gentleman in question had left his glasses at home that day. 

Last summer's goal was to hike up Snowdon, something that I had long delayed after losing a friend in an accident there back in 1972. 

The news wasn't delivered in the most compassionate way. I can still remember my Dad reading the newspaper at the breakfast table and, prompted by the Purley reference in the report, asking me: "Do you know a John Twyford?, presumably not imagining for a moment that I did. 

After responding in the affirmative, adding that he went to the same youth club as myself, and asking why he would ask, he paused for a moment and then said "Well he's dead. Fell off a mountain." That's how we dealt with things in those days I suppose.  

This year we're targeting Scafell Pike in early July and if the weather permits, Helvellyn, which I last ascended exactly 50 years ago, although I'm hoping for better weather this time around, and I might be more prepared. 

NFL 2022 Small Road Dogs

The regular NFL season is over, and the Small Road 'Dogs System recorded its fifth consecutive profitable season with a 37-29-3 record, including four wins from five in the final round of matches. 

The Divisional System, which uses a slightly different definition of 'small', was also profitable for the fifth consecutive season, with a 23-20 record although had it used the same criteria for selections as the main system, the results would have been an improved 17-12 record. 

Sacred Manuscript subscribers who followed these systems will hopefully have made some money.

The NFL season continues next weekend with the Wild Card weekend and historically road 'dogs receiving fewer than 8.5 points are profitable in the playoffs, especially in the NFC. 

The New York Giants (at the Minnesota Vikings) and Baltimore Ravens (at the Cincinnati Bengals) currently sit within that point range. 

Two Road teams are actually small favourites next weekend, and historically teams in this situation have a 59% record ATS. 

X-Axis and Tesla Woes

In my first post of 2023, I touched on a couple of topics that have subsequently become more relevant.

 

One was that (about 2022) I wrote that:

This was my first down year since I started tracking these things in 2009, with my net worth total declining by 11.6%. At my age, this number is all about investment performance, with income from employment pretty much irrelevant.

This is a topic covered by Nick Maggiulli today, accompanied by a nice chart illustrating my point rather neatly: 

I'm at the extreme right of the x-axis above, and clearly while saving over 20% of my income doesn't hurt, how my investments perform is far more impactful to my net worth.

Interestingly, Nick's year seems to have been very similar to mine, although he is far younger. In this article he writes:

In fact, 2022 was the first year ever where I saw a decrease in my net worth from the year prior. To be specific, my net worth dropped by 11% in 2022 though my portfolio was down over 20%. What prevented my net worth from declining by 20% like the rest of my portfolio did? My ability to save money to offset my investment losses.

As I mentioned in my post, a reasonably large percentage (about 20%) of my portfolio is made up of investments in my company, which performed relatively well last year, although my main retirement account was down almost 20%.

That's four consecutive mentions of 20%, make that five, which must be something of a record! 

 The second topic I mentioned was that of Tesla, and I suggested that: 

"he [Elon Musk] seems to be having some kind of mid-life crisis and his political views, unpleasant to the majority of people, and certainly to his customer base, have likely reduced the demand for Tesla cars."

The stock ended the day down by 12.24% after the company:

"delivered fewer vehicles in 2022 than it initially targeted, capping a year during which the stock suffered its worst annual performance as demand appeared to soften and Covid-related production disruptions persisted."

Not the start to the new year I was hoping for, but a tremendous buying opportunity, or is the stock headed for under $100 shortly? Time will tell. 

Ken Block

2023 hasn't started well with the terrible news that Ken Block was killed yesterday in a snowmobile accident in Utah at the age of just 55, leaving behind three children. Ken was more recently famous for his rally driving and stunt videos, but was a business partner of my wife's brothers founding DC Shoes in 1994, a venture that worked our rather nicely for them.

He died doing what he loved to do, lived an extremely full and active life, and while I look at my Dad and his quality (or lack of quality) of life in his 96th year and understand you can live too long, passing at 55 with teenage children is much too young and very sad.  

In other bad news yesterday, the NFL's Monday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals was abandoned after the Bills' Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field in the first quarter after making a tackle and going into cardiac arrest. He required CPR for eight minutes and resuscitation but reports today suggest that his vital signs are back to normal.

While American Football is a brutal game, only one player has ever died during a game - Chuck Hughes of the Detroit Lions in 1971 in a game that was played to its conclusion against the Chicago Bears.

Some reports suggest that the NFL initially wanted the game last night to resume, but it was clear that many of the players were in shock and not in a fit state to play. Not a good look for the NFL if true. 

Both of the above events are jarring reminders of how fragile life is, and how important it is to maintain perspective and and understand what really matters in life. And it's not winning or losing your bets.

Eyeballs on 2023

2023 is not only the second consecutive year that is a harshad number and it is also an Eyeball Year since its binary representation only contains two zeroes and they are consecutive.

2023 is also a number that can be formed using the digits from one to nine in sequence:

Fascinating, I'm sure you'll agree. Maybe.

As I wrote in my opening post of 2022, Harshad is a Sanskrit word which means 'joy-giver' and while I commented at the time that "hopefully the year will live up to its categorisation and do just that", for many of us it didn't. 

Looking back a year, and it seems that not much has changed in the past two years. I wrote a year ago:

As for the year just gone, much of what I wrote in my review of 2020 a year ago remains true.

My job isn't really work these days. It's all meetings and management and if I can do it full-time from home, and by full-time I often mean for two to three hours a day, then I might as well hang in there until the next bonus and stock options are doled out at least, which is next month. Were my job hacking away at a coal face, my attitude to retirement might be a little different.

I'm getting boring. A year on, and I am still working, with retirement presumably closer, but motivation to pull the trigger is still very much tempered by the fact that I do very little actual work. My office was closed in 2022, so aside from the occasional work trip, and due to cost cutting, those haven't been so plentiful, all the work I do is from home. The possibility of a 2023 trip to India has been mentioned, and that would be an incentive to stay, but I am starting to consider the end of June as a good retirement date. 

My daughter is expecting her third child, and my fourth grandchild, on the 30th June, which is an extra nudge towards that date, but knowing myself as I do, it will all depend on how the stock markets perform in the next few months and how much of a golden parachute I can negotiate. 

Two of my peers were let go in November, and while I don't know exactly what redundancy terms they received, it was probably somewhere between 6 months and a years salary, either of which would suit me just fine. I complete 20 years of service with my firm in a few days, so I would expect to be close to qualifying for a year's money based on the formulas I have seen when having to lay people off myself, but if the decision to walk away is mine, I'm not sure how generous they might be. 

While work isn't exactly onerous as I've mentioned, I do need to keep an eye on the clock, as the good years of retirement can quickly evaporate. While I still feel physically good today, it might not be that long before the leg I broke in 2021 develops arthritis, or something else happens in an instant that reduces or removes the ability to travel. 

Psychologically I know that I need to be close to, or at, an all-time high but 2022 wasn't helpful. This was my first down year since I started tracking these things in 2009, with my net worth total declining by 11.6%. At my age, this number is all about investment performance, with income from employment pretty much irrelevant. 

I did warn myself a year ago that:

Of course the stock market will crash at some point, but predictions have been out there for at least eleven years now, and if you'd moved to cash at that time, I'm pretty sure you wouldn't be too happy.  

We've all been rather spoiled over the past two decades with low inflation, and a bull market that aside from the crash of 2008 saw the FTSE100 index decline by more than 6.5% just twice, and the USA's S&P500 index never, until 2022 when it dropped by 19.4%. Last year was just the second time (2016) since the crash of 2008 when the FTSE100 index has out performed the S&P 500 index, which readers will know has been my preferred index for many years.

One interesting observation from A Wealth of Common Sense is this:

The stock market probably won’t give us “average” returns. Depending on the time frame you use the long run annualized return for U.S. stocks is something in the 8-10% range.

The strange thing about investing in stocks is any given year rarely gives you anything close to that range of returns.

In fact, going back to 1928 there has been one single year of returns that fell between 8% and 10% (1993 when the S&P 500 was up 9.97% in total on the year).

Most of the time the stock market is up big or down big on the year. From 1928-2022, 70% of all years have seen double-digit gains or losses.

A great example of how averages, at least in the short-term, are often not very useful. 

As for my individual stocks, Tesla had a terrible year, with it's CEO Elon Musk  going from an absolute hero to a complete zero in the space of a few months. After closing at 352.26 last year, the stock is now priced at 123.18, a decline of 65%. 

Tesla is still my best performing share, up 488% since I purchased them in November 2017, but the distraction of buying and running Twitter, along with Musk's need to finance the purchase by selling Tesla stock, has clearly had an impact.

Musk has always been a bit of an odd character, but he seems to be having some kind of mid-life crisis and his political views, unpleasant to the majority of people, and certainly to his customer base, have likely reduced the demand for Tesla cars. 

Unfortunately the Tesla board is comprised of "Elon Musk, his brother, and people they control. It’s a public company in name only, and is controlled by a clique of insiders. It will be shocking if they move against him."

After cashing in some of the shares a year ago, I am now playing with house money and can watch from the sidelines, but what was looking like a great investment at one time has now become an interesting one to watch for all the wrong reasons. 

I've mentioned in the past that I invested a small amount in a Bitcoin trust, and that has preformed terribly with cryptocurrencies in general struggling after the recent FTX scandal. I know exactly why I dipped my feet into Bitcoin, simply a FOMO play, but  since they are not income producing assets, “investing” in crypto is purely price speculation, or gambling, and I'll not be adding to my position. 

One of my best individual holdings continues to be Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway which I bought a little over two years ago and has quietly increased by a little over 37% in that time. It's not a jazzy holding, but it's a very solid one, and as regular readers will know, I'm a long time fan of Warren Buffett and his philosophy, although changes at the top for Berkshire Hathaway are unavoidable fairly soon with straight-talking vice-chairman Charlie Munger turning 99 yesterday. 

Of course with my stock, stock options and RSU holdings, my company's performance and share price is hugely important, and while a repeat of 2021 was always unlikely, a year when the stock was up 45%, it did at least manage a market beating 5.6% increase in 2022.  

For sports investing, 2022 was a steady year with a total gain of 5.28%. The glory years of 2006-2014 are a distant memory, but it's still possible to make steady profits with a disciplined approach. The markets for US sports appear to be evolving rapidly as the betting landscape over there changes, but the loosening of betting restrictions in many states was always likely to be disruptive. 

The 2022 College Football season is almost over, with a few Bowl Games and the Championship game next Monday where Georgia (-13.5) are favourites to beat TCU. The Away Small 'Dogs System 'officially' recorded a 41-34 winning record, an ROI of 6.7%, but as detailed back in October, Killer Sports doesn't include all college matches and individual results will therefore vary. (Individual results will always vary, depending on the time selections are identified, and the method by which they are sourced.)

The NFL season is still ongoing, with the regular season ending up next Sunday, but at the end of 2022 the ROI was 9.5% with a winning record of 31-24-3 with the related Divisional System recording a 17-15 record for a 3.7% ROI.  

So American Football was again profitable, but it's not the same story in the NBA where both of my systems are struggling quite badly. The Road Team System is currently down almost 20%, and a first losing season since 2005 looks certain.

The main reason is that overall, Home teams are having their best season since at least 1995 (when records began), with the results for road teams playing on short rest (two or fewer days) against opponents who won their last game also an outlier.

The Overs on High Totals System is also struggling this season, with an ROI of -14.1%. While the number of points being scored per game is the highest since the 1969-70 season, the market appears to have adapted to the higher totals being set. 

The NHL System started badly with losses in both October and November, but normal service was resumed in December and at the turn of the year, the system is 'officially' in profit, albeit by just 0.3%, but after trailing early on, this feels like a much bigger gain than it looks on paper.

Turning to football and while the Draw System in the EPL is currently down 5.33 units (from 29 selections) the similar Segunda División Draw System is currently up 7.89 units (from 78 selections) this season. 

The World Cup Draw System was again profitable as I mentioned in my last post, up 24% overall and up 94% on games with no team odds-on at fair prices.

In the Bundeslayga, the laying systems continue to generate slow and steady profits and are currently up 4.30 units (ROI 1.49%), and that's about it for sports betting, at least for those systems detailed in the 'Sacred Manuscript'.

As I mentioned in my last post of 2022, my goal of 1,200 miles on foot proved too easy, and was initially bumped up to 2,000 miles before I belatedly realised that 2,022 miles made for a more interesting target, and the final total was exactly 2,023 miles.  

Health will continue to be an area of focus in 2023, with my 'miles on foot' target 2,023 miles. I'm in a good routine and if I can stay healthy, this is again achievable. There's little point in trying to make money if your health isn't as good as you can possibly make it. I enjoy the time outside, and listening to podcasts certainly makes the longer walks go by easily. I love the time alone, with the mental benefits just as important as the physical. 

While exercise is of course good for you, for weight management it's mostly about the calories ingested as I have mentioned before. 

January is the 28th month I've been tracking these numbers, and while the net calories (ingested minus active calories burned) has a correlation of 90%, weight loss v ingested calories on its own has a correlation of 89.7%. 

Alcohol totals and total days are also highly correlated to weight gain or loss, and one new year resolution is to cut down on 'junk' drinking - those days when I go out for a few beers just because a friend texts me. I'll save my beers for special occasions as much as possible but a Dry Veganuary should get the year off to a good start.

Unfortunately I have a propensity to gain weight if I don't watch my diet, with the scales measuring a gain of almost 11lbs after returning from a very enjoyable Xmas break with family. Overall I lost 19.2 pounds in 2022, so the goal in 2023 is to drop those 11 Xmas pounds in January, and another 10 through to the end of November when it all goes (literally), pear shaped again!

Stay disciplined and good luck in achieving all your goals in 2023. 

The Draw at the World Cup

I'm now returned from my Xmas holiday in the wilds of Kent, and pleased to have managed enough walks through the muddy fields in borrowed Wellington boots to achieve my goal of 2,000 miles on foot this year. It only occurred to me today that a goal of 2,022 would have been much catchier, and at 2,011 with two days to do, this is almost certainly done.

The 2,000 miles target was upwardly revised once I realised the original 1,200 miles a month was going to be too easy. 

Next year's goal will be an even tougher one, set at 2,023 miles. The absence of an office to go to, and a reduction in business travel, have combined to create the extra time needed each day to accomplish this. 5.55 miles a day at 15 minute miles is about an hour and 23 minutes a day. Plus I have the flexibility now to wander off in mid-day while it is still light and avoid any inclement weather.

While I was away, the World Cup wrapped up with a great result for Draw backers in the Final. A profit from backing the Draw in every knockout game was already guaranteed before the Semi-Finals began, but the Final Draw was icing on the cake. The investment was looking extremely unlikely to pay dividends for much of the game, but two Mbappé goals in the last ten minutes came as a welcome surprise. 

Backing the Draw in all 15 games resulted in a 3.53 unit profit, an ROI of 24%, and in games with no fair priced odds-on favourite, the respective numbers were 4.68 units profit and a 94% ROI.

I have data starting with the 2006 World Cup, and by tournament, here are the totals for backing the Draw in every knockout game and in only those with no fair priced odds-on favourite:

While there is a women's World Cup next summer, the next big international tournament for the men's game is CONCACAF's Gold Cup (also next summer) although that tournament isn't great for this strategy, followed by Africa's 2023 Cup of Nations delayed to January 2024. The summer of 2024 will see both the Copa America and Euro tournaments.

Here are the updated numbers for backing the Draw in every game for these tournaments:

And here are the numbers for the Draw in matches with no fair priced odds-on favourite:

Full details are in the Sacred Manuscript, so I'm confident at least a few readers made a decent profit from this World Cup. 

A nice way to the end the year, which hasn't been the best one by the numbers, but more on that in the New Year when I look back and forward. Happy New Year to everyone who reads this. Stay healthy and stay lucky.

World Cup Winner Odds Since 1966

I will be travelling this afternoon and away for a couple of weeks over Christmas so there will be no posts for a while. The original plan was to watch England win the World Cup with friends and family, but that won't be happening now. The numbers of those of us who are old enough to (just about) remember 1966 continues to dwindle as the years of hurt climbs to 60. 

As is often the case, the Guardian today had an interesting feature about the fate of pre-tournament World Cup favourites going back to 1966, and posting it here serves two purposes - I don't lose it, and it may be of interest to some of you. 

Scotland joint 4th favourites in 1978? I had no idea. Merry Christmas. 

The only time since 1966 that Brazil lived up to their pre-tournament billing was at the 1994 World Cup. That is one of only three times in 15 tournaments since 1966 that the favourite has won; West Germany in 1974 and Spain in 2010 were the others.

Here’s a list of the odds for the favourites and winners before each World Cup:

1966
Winners England 9-2 Favourites Brazil 7-4 (went out in group stage) Other notable odds West Germany 10-1 (runners-up), Portugal 20-1 (semi-finalists), North Korea 100-1 (quarter-finalists)

1970
Winners Brazil 7-2 Favourites England 3-1 (out in quarter-finals)

1974
Winners and favourites West Germany 9-4 Other notable odds Brazil and Italy 5-1 (joint 2nd fav), Netherlands 9-1 (finalists), Poland 28-1 (won third-place playoff)

1978
Winners Argentina 4-1 (2nd fav) Favourites Brazil 22-10 (out in second group stage) Other notable odds Scotland 8-1 (joint 4th fav), Tunisia 1000-1 (became first African team to win a World Cup match)
1982

Winners Italy 18-1 Favourites Brazil 15-8 (out in second group stage) Other notable odds Poland 25-1 (semi-finalists), France 33-1 (semi-finalists), Algeria 2000-1 (beat West Germany in group stage)

1986
Winners Argentina 7-2 (2nd fav) Favourites Brazil 10-3 (quarter-finalists) Other notable odds West Germany 14-1 (runners-up), Uruguay 6-1 (last 16), Denmark 14-1 (last 16)

1990
Winners West Germany 6-1 (4th fav) Favourites Italy 3-1 (semi-finalists) Other notable odds Argentina 11-1 (runners-up), England 10-1 (semi-finalists), Cameroon 500-1 (quarter-finalists)

1994
Winners and favourites Brazil 3-1 Other notable odds Colombia 8-1 (out in group stage), Sweden 40-1 (semi-finalists), Bulgaria 50-1 (semi-finalists)

1998
Winners France 6-1 (2nd fav) Favourites Brazil 3-1 (runners-up) Other notable odds Croatia 66-1 (semi-finalists)

2002
Winners Brazil 13-2 (4th fav) Favourites France 4-1 (out in group stage) Other notable odds Argentina 5-2 (out in group stage), Turkey 100-1 (semi-finalists), South Korea 200-1 (semi-finalists), Senegal 300-1 (quarter-finalists)

2006
Winners Italy 8-1 Favourites Brazil 3-1 (quarter-finalists) Other notable odds England 13-2 (quarter-finalists), France 12-1 (runners-up)

2010
Winners and favourites Spain 4-1 Other notable odds England 8-1 (out in last 16), Uruguay 100-1 (semi-finalists)

2014
Winners Germany 13-2 (joint 3rd fav) Favourites Brazil 3-1 (semi-finalists)

2018
Winners France 6-1 (3rd fav) Favourites Brazil 4-1 (quarter-finalists) Other notable odds England 16-1 (semi-finalists), Croatia 33-1 (finalists)

2022
Winners (from) Argentina 11-2, France 6-1, Croatia 50-1, Morocco 200-1 Favourites Brazil 7-2 (quarter-finalists)

World Cup, Round of 16 and Qatar-Finals

With a 0:0 draw between England and the USA on Thanksgiving Friday, diplomatic relations within the Cassini family have remained positive, although since then the fortunes for the two of us have gone in separate ways.

Only one of the Round of 16 matches (Croatia v Japan) was a game with no odds-on favourite, and Draw backers will have been pleased with the 1:1 score. The ROI on World Cup knockout matches without an odds-on favourite increased to 47.5%, just ahead of the Euros where the ROI is a mere 45.2%.

If you backed the Draw in all matches to level stakes you'd be down 0.74 units, or if you'd stuck with matches where the Draw was shorter than 4.0, you'd be up 2.26 units.

Hard to believe that only seven proper matches remain, and the Portuguese speaking quarter-finalists will both be odds-on this weekend, with the other two matches will be more evenly balanced. 

Some readers will have noticed that the eight knockout games so far have all been won by the alphabetically first team, and if this continues throughout, then England will lose in the final to Argentina. However, I wouldn't recommend this idea as a betting strategy. 

The shortest Draw price is Argentina v Netherlands at around 3.16 and the most evenly balanced game is England v France where the Draw is a rather rare underdog at around 3.28.

Since 2006, only nine previous World Cup knockout matches have had the Draw as the 'dog, with three wins each for the Favourite, 2nd Favourite and the Draw.

Notice that when the 2nd Favourite wins, it's always in some style. 

Looking at the slightly larger sample of non-World Cup elimination games, the value is on backing the favourite, with an ROI from the 22 matches of 39%.

Again, with one exception, when the 2nd Favourite wins, it's by three goals or more!  

USA Sports Betting, MLB 2022 and Marital Discord

The 2022 MLB season is over with the Houston Astros winning the World Series by four games to two over the Philadelphia Phillies. It was an interesting season, with the Phillies reaching the final despite finishing third in their Division behind two teams winning over 100 games. The Astros were the best team in the American League though, so their success wasn't such a surprise, but with four teams winning 100 games for only the second time in history, and the New York Yankees only one short on 99, it's not surprising that there were a record number of 'hot' favorites this season.

Unfortunately the strategy of backing such teams in the regular season wasn't a winning one this year overall, except in inter-league games. The universal adoption of the Designated Hitter (DH) rule may have been disruptive, but this doesn't explain why American League (AL) clubs playing intra-league games would have been the worst performing types of game.

Here are the numbers going back to 2013, and note that in 2020 the DH rule was also not in effect:

Excluding the 2020 COVID season, the number of 'hot favourites' (shorter than 1.5) has doubled in the past five years as parity between the teams has dropped but of the five teams winning 99 or more games this season, only backing the Yankees and Atlanta Braves when hot favourites was profitable.

The majority of selections are Home teams, but ROIs have been slightly higher historically on Away teams with that for the 2013 to 2021 seasons (excluding the COVID 2020 season) at 8.9%, but this season the ROI on Aways was -10%.  

The above image shows the results by League, and while it might not be a surprise to see the National League disrupted in the two seasons with no DH rule, the season just ended was the first where the American League selection has lost (other than that very small loss in 2016). 

One other possible explanation is the huge increase in sports betting in the US in recent years. Just five years ago, Nevada was the only state with legal U.S. sports betting but a Supreme Court ruling in May 2018 gave states the power to legalise and regulate sports betting. It's a constantly increasing number but more than 30 states have legalized some form of U.S. sports betting, with likely more to come.

It could be a blip of course, but as markets open up, and billions of new dollars pours into markets, of course there is going to be some disruption. I'm in California at the moment, (it's Thanksgiving this week, although my in-laws are both currently sick and turkey plans may well be disrupted), and today's New York Times had a feature on the topic: 

Four years ago, betting on live sports was illegal in most of the United States. Now, fans watching games or attending them at stadiums are barraged with advertisements encouraging them to bet on matchups, not just watch as spectators.

This transformation in sports betting started nearly a decade ago, at first with the explosion of wagering on fantasy sports. Then in 2018, the Supreme Court cleared the way for states to legalize wagers on live games. Today, 31 states and Washington, D.C., permit sports gambling either online or in person, and five more states have passed laws that will allow such betting in the future. Professional sports in the U.S. now are part of a multibillion-dollar corporate gambling enterprise.

This shift represents the largest expansion of gambling in United States history.

At least $161 billion in wagers have been placed since sports betting was broadly legalized in the United States. This explosion of gambling is just the start. Betting companies have made clear that the ultimate goal is to bring so-called iGaming to states across the nation, where customers can use their mobile phones to play blackjack, poker and other casino-style games.

California is one of the minority of states with no legal sports betting, but TV shows now openly discuss odds, lines and totals, and 'bad beats' are often featured and while sports betting has always been a part of life here, it's never been so openly discussed. 

When the last World Cup was played, just three states (Nevada, New Jersey, Delaware) had legal sports betting markets, but for the current one:

20.5 million American adults plan to bet $1.8 billion on the 2022 World Cup, per a new report from the American Gaming Association. Three in 10 (29%) of American adults who plan to watch the World Cup intend to wager on the tournament.

Of course, not all the money is too sharp:

If given $50 to bet, most Americans would put their money on the U.S. (24%) to win...

Systems that have worked well for several years in the NBA and NHL are also off to poor starts this season, but touch wood, American Football seems to be its usual self. It's unlikely I'll get to see a game live while I'm here, but with Friday being a holiday for most Americans, and the game starting at 11am local time here, bars should be lively for the US v England game. Whether or not my wife will still be talking to me afterwards remains to be seen. 

Stupid Small Eyed Pig

Backing the 'Dog in the MLB Playoffs had another winner last night, with the Houston Astros 'officially' winning at evens but backed at 2.06 on Betfair, following on the heels of the Philadelphia Phillies win on a delayed Tuesday night game three at an official 2.05 but again, backed higher on Betfair at 2.16. Betfair take their 2% commission so we're not comparing apples to apples here, but 2.16 is equivalent to 2.137. 

With a maximum of three games left, this post-season is guaranteed to end up in profit. I'll look at the MLB season in its entirety later this month. It's been an unusual one with the significant rule changes, but it's nice to end out the season positively.

With the series tied at two after a rare no-hitter last night, tonight's Game Five is hugely important, with the Phillies a home underdog at 2.46. 

With my wife away, I've had some extra time on my hands, and with excellent timing, I've been entertained by a crypto scammer in recent days. It started with a text from an unknown number addressed to "Kevin" referencing interest in a property deal, and asking for the contract. 

Being a decent chap, and assuming positive intent, I responded clarifying that I was not Kevin. I'd hate for someone to miss out on an opportunity because of a genuine mistake, and the reply stated that "my assistant saved the wrong number digits" adding "I hope I didn't cause you any trouble".

"None whatsoever" I replied, to which I was told "You are very gentle... Let's make a friend, How old are you?"

And so it began. By nature, I'm a sceptic, and 99.9% sure this now wasn't a genuine wrong number, and sure enough within a few messages my new friend was saying how they were "analysing the crypoto currency market" in their spare time.

"My aunt is a finance expert from a Japanese university, majoring in financial market analysis, quantitative investment and sound asset management, He (sic) is trading short-term Bitcoin call options. She will notify me in advance every time there is a good market quote, so I have been able to make rich profits in the cryptocurrency market for the past two years." 

The target for next year was $800k. 

The two years later grew to four, with 3 to 4 trades per month on average and when pressed on the strike rate and position size was told 100% and 30% respectively.

Not a single trade of a total of approximately 168 made had ever lost. Very impressive? 

Even more remarkably, the profit on each was 40%. When I pointed out that this seemed rather unlikely and that with compounding they would now literally be a billionaire even starting with a very modest bank, I was told that I'm old and don't understand trading.

Well, I am certainly old, although I prefer the term 'experienced' and after being told I was a 'stupid pig' with an 80s / 90s mindset my new friend is no longer reaching out to me every hour to see if I've opened an account yet. Hopefully I wasted plenty of their time, and saved someone else from potentially losing money. 

October in Perspective

It seems that when writing a weekend, weekly or monthly review that I often use the phrase "good in parts", with my first reference to the curate's egg all the way back in January 2010, and it's hardly surprising.

For those of us who have a number of systems or strategies, it's to be expected that over any given short-term period, some will be up and some will be down. If each individual system has a positive EV, the overall trend will be positive, but the more systems you have, the rarer it becomes for a month where everything was up, or down for that matter. 

While the big picture financially last month was positive, a welcome change to how much of the year has been going, the sports investing division of Cassini Holdings wasn't the cash cow I was hoping for, with an 'official' loss of 10.77 units, a negative ROI of -3.8%.

The EPL Draws extended their losing run to seven, with the one selection this weekend (Brighton and Hove Albion v Chelsea) failing. Longer losing runs when you're backing the draw are to be expected though, and hopefully the record of 15 will not be broken this season. 

The two seasons that started last month (NBA and NHL) haven't started off well, and while it's always a concern that something has changed in the close season, I've not seen anything along the lines of last year when NBA rule changes directly impacted the number of points being scored.

Hopefully with a few more matches in the ledger this month, things will have settled down. Handling losing runs never ceases to be difficult, but looking back at past results is always helpful, and implementing a stop-loss after a drawdown is one strategy where you reduce or even stop betting and just monitor results until your confidence returns. 

Overall though, October was a good month, the second best of the year after March, but still down almost 13% from my high, and 9.2% down year-to-date. The major indexes all had good months with the FTSE100 up 2.9% but the S&P 500 was up 8% and the narrower DJIA almost 14%. It also helped that my company's share price hit a new all-time high on Halloween, with those stock options nicely in the money.

It was also a good month for exercise and weight. I covered 226.5 miles on foot, slightly fewer than September, but well on track to average 5 miles a day for the year, and despite my wife going off on holiday, I was more self-disciplined than I thought and only consumed alcohol on three days resulting in a losing month on the scales. 

The worst part of the month by a long distance was losing one of my dogs, which put into perspective a few losing bets. She was 12, had congestive heart failure and was starting to suffer, so we had to make the tough decision to put her to sleep, and it was a lot tougher process to go through than I thought.

An animal rescue charity in the US runs a 'poorly drawn pets' fundraiser where you send in a photo of your pet with a donation, and in return get a drawing. I was rather pleased with mine:

If you're not a dog or pet owner, you won't understand how upsetting the loss of one can be, but I have two more with me who are probably wondering what the heck is going on after my wife has also disappeared from their lives, although she should be back this weekend.

Life goes on, and here's to a winning November, with a major football tournament to turn our attention to.

World Series Miscalculation

In baseball, the World Series is set with the Houston Astros to play the Philadelphia Phillies in the best-of-7 series starting on Friday. 

The Astros, last season's runners-up, are the top seed in the American League and have so far won every one of their seven playoff games, while the Phillies are the number six seed (i.e. lowest) in the National League but have won 9 of their 11 playoff games. 

Not surprisingly the Astros are favourites to win the series at around 1.57, but worth noting that backing underdogs, particularly at home, has again been profitable so far this post-season. 

In the last ten years of playoffs, Home 'Dogs have an ROI of 9.5%, although this includes games played on neutral grounds during the pandemic where the team was designated as Home based on seeding and batted in the bottom of the innings. 

David Purdum wrote an interesting article about a supposed odds calculation error by Sportsbook BetMGM who for two weeks early in the season offered 2,500-1 on the Astros defeating the Phillies in the World Series:

A fortuitous bettor in Colorado is in position to win big on the World Series, a potential score magnified by a bookmaker's miscalculation.

On April 13, one week into the Major League Baseball season, a bettor in Colorado placed a $50 futures wager with BetMGM on the Houston Astros to beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series at 2,500-1 odds. Nearly seven months later, the Astros and Phillies are in the World Series, and the bettor is position to win $125,000, if Houston prevails. The bettor also could lock in a profit by placing a hedge bet on the underdog Phillies. A $10,000 wager on Philadelphia at current series price of +160, for example, would secure a $15,950 profit if the Phillies pull the upset or a $115,000 payday if the Astros win off their original $50 wager.

The bettor declined interview requests but provided some quotes to BetMGM.

"It's been surreal living and dying with the Phillies from April all the way through 'Philtober,'" the bettor said. "Shoutout to the Astros for taking care of business, and to the Dodgers for choking as usual."

The bettor added, "I'm not hedging."

Regardless, the bettor is in for a World Series sweat that could be more lucrative than it should be -- because the odds on the wager were longer than they should've been. Instead of 2,500-1, the odds on the Astros' win over the Phillies in the World Series should've been closer to 250-1, if not shorter.

The most basic way to create odds on an exact outcome of a World Series, months in advance, is to multiply the projected champion's odds to win the World Series with the other team's odds of winning the pennant. At the time of the bet, the Astros were 10-1 to win the World Series, and the Phillies, despite a slow start, were around 10-1 to win the National League. Using the traditional method, the odds would've been around 100-1, not 2,500-1. Different approaches might have produced longer odds but unlikely anywhere close to 2,500-1. In comparison, the odds offered on the Texas Rangers beating the Miami Marlins in the World Series were also 2,500-1 at BetMGM.

"We were probably a little bit of aggressive on those," a good-spirited Jason Scott, vice president of trading at Bet MGM, told ESPN, acknowledging a misstep in the oddsmaking process.

Egregious odds errors, often referred to as palpable errors, can be a controversial topic in the betting community. Data entry errors or typos can cause sportsbooks to post the wrong lines, sometimes making a big favorite an underdog, for example. Sportsbooks often include stipulations regarding egregious odds errors and, in the past, have fought from having to pay out on bets made on the bad lines. Scott, however, made no indication that BetMGM would go that route.

BetMGM offered the 2,500-1 price for two weeks but only took six bets on an exact Astros-over Phillies World Series outcome. Scott said the $50 wager accounted for "about 90%" of the total amount bet on the inflated odds.

"I'm more worried about Mattress Mack beating us than him, to be honest," Scott said.

Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, a Houston furniture store owner known to place big bets to mitigate risk from promotions, placed a $2 million bet with BetMGM on the Astros to win the World Series. In total, McIngvale has approximately $10 million riding on the Astros in the World Series with a chance at a $75 million payout. He'll need it: After placing his seven-figure bets in June, McIngvale offered to refund customers who spent $3,000 at his store Gallery Furniture double their money back if the Astros win the World Series.

"It's not pleasant, but we can deal with it," Scott said of the liability caused by McIngvale's bet on the Astros.

BetMGM said it will be sending the Colorado bettor to Friday's Game 1 of the World Series in Houston.

A glitch in the Matrix on Monday night caused some confusion for a couple of subscribers, with the Killer Sports site throwing up qualifiers for one of the NBA systems who were most definitely not qualifiers. The problem was soon rectified, but it was a reminder that it's always a good idea to double-check the data before investing any money. 

Results over the weekend were mixed. With the end of month approaching, I'll write up a summary at that time, but the EPL Draws had a blank weekend with the two losses extending the losing run which started in midweek from 4 to 6, while the Segunda (+0.77) and Bundeslayga Systems (+2.13) were both profitable.

My findings on the 'seeded and rested' teams that I've mentioned here recently has sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole. After looking at seeded and rested clubs in the National Leagues (the English football ones, not the MLB one), and rested, but not seeded, NFL teams coming off a regular season bye week, my interest in time zones was rekindled. Some of you may remember my NBA findings on Eastern teams playing in the West published in 2019, but most of you likely won't. 

Equinox Knocks

There was another Sports Equinox in the US on Thursday, but it wasn't a profitable one. The Thursday Night NFL game went Over by a mile, and the 2.5 points the New Orleans Saints were getting was nowhere near enough.

On top of that, the two NHL selections both lost, but at least the Los Angeles Clippers picked up a win on the road. Well, technically on the road, since the win came in their home stadium which they share with the Los Angeles Lakers.

A profit yesterday from the Bundeslayga though, and the NBA's two systems were both in profit.  

Regarding my observation that top clubs resting on a bye historically underperform in their next game or series, Can't Win With Kids took the idea down a different path asking the question:

Were there not an odd number of teams in the National League when Macclesfield went bust a couple of seasons ago, therefore one team per week who effectively had a bye week, may be worth looking at especially with Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday game weeks.

There have been quite a few leagues played with an odd number of teams in them, going back to 1893-94 when Division Two had 15 clubs.

Why does this season sound familiar, I hear no one ask. Well, I can tell you. It's because Small Heath went the entire season without drawing a game.  This wasn't a first however, with two clubs - Sunderland and Aston Villa - managing this feat in the Football League of 1891-92, and something not repeated in the top division since Stoke managed it in 1895-96. 

While I'm on the subject, I should mention that the last time a top league had a club with no draws in a season was in 2009-10 when RKC Waalwijk finished bottom of the Eredivisie without a single draw.

Back to the odd number question, and other leagues with an odd number of clubs are:

1931-32 Division Three North (Wigan Borough resigned after 12 games and had their record expunged)

1961-62 Division Four (Accrington Stanley resigned after 33 games and had their record expunged)

1987-88 Divisions One and Two had 21 and 23 clubs respectively

2019-20 League One (Bury expelled without playing any matches)

The season Can't Win With Kids is referring to is the 2020-21 National League season when Macclesfield folded before they had played any matches, and later saw Dover Athletic refuse to play matches from January before they had their results expunged in March. 

The 2021-22 National League season was played with 23 clubs, and Dover Athletic were relegated after having 12 points deducted for sulking the previous season, while the National League South also had 23 clubs that season, which means that there have been several years where clubs have had a bye week.

While finding the Match Odds data from 1893-94 Division Two might be rather challenging, the data is there for those more recent seasons, but it's a relatively unusual scenario so I'm not sure it's worth trawling through the data for something that might not happen again for some time.

These 'ordinary' games remove the element that the rested team is always the, on paper at least, stronger team, but if we're looking at this scenario, we have some good data from the NFL where teams are given bye weeks, so for example this weekend is Week 7 of the season and:

Unfortunately, historically there is no edge here, with an almost 50/50 record against the spread: