Green All Over

Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Saturday, 16 November 2013

Equalising Formula

L commented on my past post about levelling up your profits (or losses) writing: Nice stuff Is possible to specify mechanically the ris...

Second-Guessing

A frustrating Thursday night / Friday morning in the NBA with the Oklahoma City Thunder giving up a game-winning shot as time expi...

Thursday, 14 November 2013

Model Bettors

In my Bad Bettors post a few days ago, I wrote: In other tipster updates, John Walsh had a quiet week in the NHL, but another profitable ...

Tuesday, 12 November 2013

Mugs And Shrewdies

Cobo wrote: Thank you for addressing my doubt in length Cassini. It's true the markets pre-off are very very accurate and difficult...

Monday, 11 November 2013

Bad Bettors

The comment about losing more that would be expected on coin-flip selections is interesting. Is this really true, or do people win 5...

Sunday, 10 November 2013

Homework

As I suspected, Emp suggests that any tone of patronisation in his earlier comment was quite unintended. I think this may be cultural rath...

Sporting Differences, Innate Ability

Cobo asked: Hello Cassini, Are you sure that "advanced not publicly available stats" reasoning can only be made for NBA? I don...

Tuesday, 5 November 2013

Tipster Updates

You can follow NBA Tips1 at the UK's leading free tipping site but here are their results so far this season: Not exactly evidence y...

3PW And Goals

A little more on the suggestion from Jamie last week that three points for a win (3PW) might have made a difference to the percentage of mat...

Tipster League - Fizzers And Sparklers

After a record number of selections this week, and the Monday night games in the books, here are the latest standings. Not much time for a d...

Sunday, 3 November 2013

No Place Like Home

NBA teams win approximately 60% of their home games, but in the early days of this season, that percentage has shot up to 77.5%. Early days ...

Saturday, 2 November 2013

Shiny Shoe Tips

Emp asked: "Do you only trade in-play on the NBA or do you also have pre-match bets that you keep on?" I do occasionally have p...

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Sponsorship Announcement

Fairfranco had a question about the (former) FTL table, correctly answered by Jamie and Emp. The column headings IP and LW do indeed refer t...

Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Fizzer Fizzles

Overall, a losing weekend for the FTL tipsters combined, but some success stories within the total loss. The big winner of the weeken...

Sunday, 27 October 2013

Why The Draw Is (Almost) Never Favourite

While we await the conclusion of the weekend's matches and the official prices before the latest, eagerly awaited FTL table is published...

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About Me

Cassini: I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.

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