Saturday, 1 May 2010


Another long-running blog hits the end of the trail tonight with JP calling it a day after 800+ posts and 350,000 visitors. (That's more than me!) After two successful years, and a few months off at the end of 2009 into early 2010, his recent return to betting has been notable only for it's almost complete lack of success. The services he uses, and their results, are all detailed in his blog, but only four are in profit, the top two being Equine Investments and Football Elite. Sixteen show a loss, and the other two of the four profitable services are only just profitable. It was primarily as a result of following JP's blog that I selected Football Elite as the one service I follow, although I do still get the Sport's Betting Professor's selections despite not having paid for them.

But as one door closes, another opens. The Gambler is back after a gap of close to eight months. Quite a coincidence that the two events should happen on the same day. Is JP really The Gambler? Funny that you never see them in the same blogosphere at the same time...

And in another amazing coincidence, back after two months away is Betting For a Living (BFAL) who is aiming to do exactly what JP was trying to do, make a living from betting. Interesting day. Rather ambitiously in my opinion, BFAL is aiming to make £2,500 a month mostly on horses, but without having any edge, or at least not one that he is revealing. Most readers know my views on horse racing, and this is that it it most probably the toughest sport to make a living from unless you are on the inside. I look forward to being proved wrong though, but starting the year with a loss of £545 in two months doesn't bode well. He is also a Football Elite subscriber.

Maybe I'm just doom and gloom right now, because it's not only JP and the Gambler who have had a bad time lately. To say that April was disappointing for me is, to borrow David Icke's phrase, a bit like saying that it's a littly chilly at the North Pole. The pounds came off, but more from my balance than from my body.

My second worst month ever, April was my first losing month since last April, and I suspect that's not a coincidence. In fact, three of the last four Aprils have seen losses, and when you consider that 'only' 9 of 56 months have seen overall losses, for three of them to be April suggests that a long Easter holiday at this time of year is called for. I'm beginning to wish I hadn't moaned so much about the Premium Charge. I almost miss it these days.

So April comes to a close, and I draw a line in the spreadsheet and start again, battered and bruised a little, down but not out. Handling losses is still a tough nut to crack. As much as I tell myself that I still have a very healthy balance, and try to kid myself that losses are from 'house' money, and not 'really' my money, losses still hurt. (And it really IS my money!) Losing is unsettling. Every time I have a bad run, I fear that the markets have changed and the profits aren't there any more, but every time (at least so far) I've been proven wrong, and there's no reason why this time will be any different. There will be a certain re-grouping taking place though. Yes, to win £129,000 would be nice, but as my son pointed out - £1,290 is still a lot to lose if it doesn't work out and it's time to get back to basics and rebuild a little confidence before throwing four figures around again.

May will thus most likely be a quiet month. Currently it ranks 11th best month, which combined with April's 12th place suggests a really long Easter break next year, although May is at least profitable. Domestic football is pretty much done for the season, and if Palace lose on Sunday they could be pretty much done for a lot longer than that. Perhaps the answer is a big bet on Crystal Palace to go down. At least then if they do, I'll have the consolation of a nice pay day, but that's not my style. Hard to believe that 20 years ago, Palace finished the season with a Cup Final appearance and are now trying to stay in the Championship.

I'll try to bring the Elo ratings up to date ready to hit the ground running in August, and there's some tournament going on in South Africa pretty soon. Incidentally, between 10am and 11am today (MayDay), I hear that Paddy Power are offering 10/1 on England to win the World Cup. Layable at around 8.0 on the exchanges, that's a decent arb, though I'm not sure what the terms or limits of the offer are, so don't blame me if you can't get more than a fiver on them.

The NBA play-offs will continue through the month with good liquidity, but no such good liquidity for the NHL or for baseball. At least not yet. Once the NBA season is over, interest in baseball usually picks up though. I hope so. Right now, the relative calm of trading a baseball game or some Tigerless golf perhaps seems very appealing.


Anonymous said...

What exactly have you been doing it in on?

Cassini said...

Pretty much anything but football and tennis! I've had losses on golf, baseball, NRL, Aussie Rules, basketball (NCAA and NBA) and cricket. It happens - it's May now, so the corner has been turned. I hope.

Anonymous said...

Personally, I specialise in specific areas of 3 sports and also bet a couple of sports where I feel I'm not giving anything away (i.e. have no edge but take what are probably roughly correct value prices) "for interest".

I would suggest you're casting your net way too far. Similar principles apply in many sports but the specialists are always going to be at least a step or two ahead in your weaker sports.

I don't see how you
a) have time to research all those
sports and keep on top of all matches etc.
b) can have a sufficiently high level of knowledge and pricing ability in all those sports.
c) have time to trade them all unless you simply dip in and out of what suits you time wise

And I could go on and on.

To beat the market I think it's fair to say you need to analyse virtually every match in your chosen field (i.e. say, the Premeirship, not every football game). If you are away and miss them then you need to go back and analyse and price them retrospectively to keep models up to date.

And I do not believe that simply attempting to trade whatever televised sport takes your fancy at any given time can possibly be a profitable venture without the appropriate research and constant working knowledge of the players, teams and leagues involved.

Carbine said...

I have found golf matchups to be readily quantifiable and have developed a fairly profitable model, with a reasonable history of success (4+ years). Feel free to follow at

Good luck with your punting. Cheers. Carbine.