Bots and HFA in the NFL

Beeblebrox, possibly not his real name, had an explanation for my observation that recently bets placed between the available back and lay money are often being matched instantaneously:

That will be a bot matching your bet. It's very simple to create bots that get notified about every change in a market and then they decide what action to take.

This makes sense, although why this is something I've only noticed recently is still a mystery, since bots have been around for a long time. It could be a timing issue with these bets being placed closer to the event start time than usual, as apparently it's nothing new as Subscriber Rob let me know:

Regarding your latest blog post on bets getting matched on Betfair at
‘Invisible odds’

This has definitely been happening for quite some time and occurs on other sports not just NFL although I do notice it more on American sports.

And a subsequent email today pointed out that it:

Happened again last night. I put in 1.76 for the Islanders and it got matched immediately despite the market being 1.75 / 1.77. They lost!

It's not been the best of runs lately for the NHL Systems, but the ROI is at 9.1% for the season which is in line with their records since 2005.

Two more likely selections tomorrow night.

Subscriber Larry sent me an interesting article on the value of Home Field Advantage in the NFL, a value which is constantly evolving and needs to be looked at on a team by team basis. The article concludes with a table showing the highest as 6.3 points (Detroit Lions) and the lowest as -1.5 (Washington Commanders).

Five of the eight 'North' teams feature in the top 10 which is likely due to their familiarity with the weather, while only two 'West' teams feature in the top half, one of which is Denver with the 'mile-high' location the likely major factor.

Little Boys

My old Mum (RIP) used to tell me that "little boys who ask, don't get" to which, when I was a little older, I would respond "but if I don't ask, I still won't get as no one will know what I want". 

The importance of getting the best price when investing can't be understated and when using Betfair's platform, those extra pips will add up over time. 

I've noticed recently that not all available money is necessarily displayed. It's always been the case that amounts less than the minimum bet won't be displayed, but this seems to have changed.

For example the Indianapolis Colts were a selection today and there was a gap between the prices available to Back and Lay which were 2.0 and 2.04 respectively.

When there is no gap, I typically put in a bid at the higher price, but when a gap exists will often fill it, which is what happened today.  Immediately, my back at 2.02 was matched: 

Of course it is possible that someone just happened to put in a lay at that price for the same amount at the exact same time, but this doesn't seem likely, and it's not the first time I have noticed this recently. 

Happenstance, coincidence, enemy action, as James Bond was told and to the idea that it could all just be a coincidence, as Jim Gordon said "You're a detective now, son. You're not allowed to believe in coincidence anymore."

It's not really a big deal, but another reminder that it usually pays to not take what someone is happy to offer you, but to ask for more. 

After all, if you don't ask, you won't get. Sorry Mum.

Bluesky

Like many others this week, I have been slowly but surely setting myself up over at BlueSky where you can find me at @green-all-over.bsky.social

I have no immediate plans to leave Twitter, sorry X, and the plan is to use both in parallel for a while and see where it goes. 

The Mike Tyson v Jake Paul fight last night got the weekend off to a winning start, and the NBA's Overs system had three winners from three.

Spoiling the night were the Nashville Predators who lost in the NHL to reduce the ROI for the season to 19.2% after 24 selections. We have another selection in action tonight. 

The NFL this season hasn't been great. Several matches have been selections on more than one market (e.g. spread and totals) and it seems like it's been a story of winning on one and losing on the other, which isn't helpful. 

The Thursday Night game between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles last week was the latest example, and once again it looks like a fairly quiet weekend with just one probable selection for the Small Road 'Dogs System, but we do have two qualifiers for the "Bye Week" system which doesn't generate a lot of selections but has been very solid over the years:

 

Mike Tyson v Jake Paul

The Trump rally in the financial markets cooled off a little this week, although Bitcoin is still hovering around its all-time high. I've started to monitor Dogecoin since Trump's new right-hand man Elon Musk has long been a supporter, and this has more than doubled since the US election to around $0.37. This is still well shy of it's May 2021 all-time high of $0.73.

Tesla remains up 27.6% since the election, but Pfeizer (down 10%) isn't looking so good with the nomination of RFK Jr for Health Secretary this week not ideal.

I'll be watching the Jake Paul v Mike Tyson fight tonight, and have backed the former to win at 1.68. One subscriber asked my opinion, and as much as I would like Mike Tyson to win, I can't see him overcoming his age, but also that he's not boxed in 20 years and quit his last fight. 

Here's what my thoughts were yesterday, for what they are worth, which is probably not a whole lot to be honest:

I did initially think that Tyson is probably where the value would be, and for the same reason as you, that Paul's followers will be backing him in large numbers, but I do have some reservations, specifically:

Age. At 58 and not having boxed (other than an exhibition) for almost 20 years, he's not as fit as Jake Paul ( age 27) will be.

Motivation: Tyson quit in his last fight , saying afterwards "I do not have the guts to be in this sport anymore. I don't want to disrespect the sport that I love. My heart is not into this anymore. I'm sorry for the fans who paid for this. I wish I could have done better." - that's a concern.

Health: The fight was postponed from its original date due to a "health scare" (ulcer issue) for Tyson on a flight. That doesn't sound great.

Finally, his open workout this week raised questions about how ready he is for this fight. I'm not an expert, but the opinion among experts was that Tyson didn't look good: “This guy should not be in there. Mike couldn’t gauge the distance with his trainer on the mitts; he was coming too close; the punches were missing the mitt; they were not hitting accurately enough, and his feet weren’t there either.”

That doesn't sound good. On the plus side for Tyson, he's a natural boxer, and the rules seem to have been set to help him - 14 ounce gloves and two minute rounds.

Overall I have to say I think Paul will win. A 31 year age difference is a lot, and it's not as if Tyson is in the best of health for a 58 year old.

But of course, one punch and all these doubts are irrelevant.

I think many of us who are of a certain age will be hoping that Tyson can find that one punch and put Jake Paul in his place. It's interesting that the 1.68 price from yesterday has now shortened to 1.55 / 1.56 in just a few hours, but in a gimmicky contest like this, whatever happens, it will be obvious in hindsight.

Leopards

In my Silver Linings post, I referenced my "hedge bet" on Harris, and I am pleased to say it has so far paid off rather nicely. I wrote that:

...my bet on Harris was a hedge, and focus on the silver lining of my Bitcoin holding hitting a new all-time high. Hopefully Tesla will also benefit from Elon Musk's role with the Trump campaign, and the US futures look green across the board, especially the Russell 2000 which is comprised of smaller companies who will benefit from Trump's promised tariffs.

The three days since the election have been rather interesting with Tesla up 27.8%, Bitcoin up 10% and the S&P500 up 3.7% and Wednesday was my best single day ever beating the record set on March 24th, 2020 - eight days after my worst day ever - when the markets bounced back in the early days of COVID. 

Tesla closed on Friday at $321.22, still a little shy of it's November 2021 high of $409.97, while Bitcoin did reach a new high and is currently around $77,000. The S&P500 also set a new high going above 6,000 for the first time ever on Friday. 

As a new retiree, the sequence-of-returns risk is always a concern. Because of my severance, I have yet to dip into my retirement funds which is when retirement will get real, so for those funds to be about 10% higher than they were back in April when employment ended is a positive with the negatives unfortunately landing on people a lot less fortunate than myself, many of whom will have voted for Trump. 

'I never thought leopards would eat MY face,' sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.

If you've been following this blog for a while, you should be aware that I've long advocated for investing in low-cost passive index tracking funds over high-cost actively managed funds, and for the S&P 500 over the FTSE 100. 

While there are still about seven weeks to go in the year, it's looking most probable that the S&P 500 will again be the "winner" - results from the past ten years:

It's week 10 of the NFL today, and for the first time since week 5 of the 2020 season it looks very much like there will be no qualifiers for the Small Road 'Dogs System. With a 14-18 record this season, perhaps that's not a bad thing. 

The College Football cousin had four winning selections from five in week 11 to take the season record to 56-48, and the new College Basketball season has begun, although no selections yet as the early weeks are essentially warm-ups for the conference games which start in January.

The season didn't get off to a great start for the number 11 ranked Auburn Tigers, after two players started fighting on their flight to Houston and the pilots decided to divert.  Not a surprise that the replacement flight didn't include the two combatants Jahki Howard and Ja'Heim Hudson. Auburn won the game, so a new system is born - back the Away team if their flight is interrupted by a brawl. 

Odd Odds

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Killer Sports is not perfect. In the past, I've written that the line they record for a game is not necessarily the closing price, but:

"a representation of the line at which most people bet the game."

On the Killer Sports site today, this approach now seems to have changed to this:

The lines in our sports databases are currently a consensus of closing lines from several of the leading national sportsbooks. While that should provide a baseline for finding profitable situations, shopping around for the best available lines will only increase that profitability.

There were a couple of games yesterday in the NHL which highlight one of the challenges with Killer Sports.  

One of the Sacred Manuscript's NHL Systems had the Detroit Red Wings as a selection.

Running the query now shows them as -110 (1.91) in their game at the Chicago Blackhawks, but depending on where you went to bet them, you would have found some inconsistency.

At the time I ran the query, the Red Wings were -122 (1.82) and I did back them at 2.0 on Betfair where they were not the Favourite. 

Subscriber Stu decided to skip the game, and of course, as always happens in situations like this, the bet was a winner.

Some sportsbooks had the Red Wings as favourites, some as joint favourites and others as underdogs:

Coincidentally, we have the identical situation with a 'selection' again today. 

While it's a little confusing, showing both joint favorites as a favourite is reasonable, but in a second game yesterday - Washington Capitals v Nashville predators, both teams show up as favourite even though one was -108 and the other -112. Being priced at odds-on isn't the same as being the favourite! 

No system had an interest in this game so it was a curiosity rather than a problem, but it's something to be aware of if you are using Killer Sports to source your investment decisions.

Here are the 'official' results for the NHL systems so far this season, but with a little line shopping, these results should be the easily beatable:

Silver Linings

Since Jimmy Carter's win in 1976, only one underdog going into Election Day has won the Presidency, and last night the favourite won again. 

Here are the prices on previous elections courtesy of the Sports Odds History site: 

The "French Trump Whale" called it correctly, put his money where his mouth was and made millions while I, once again, managed to lose money betting on politics. 

However, the financial markets appear to be reacting positively to the result, so I shall pretend that my bet on Harris was a hedge, and focus on the silver lining of my Bitcoin holding hitting a new all-time high. Hopefully Tesla will also benefit from Elon Musk's role with the Trump campaign, and the US futures look green across the board, especially the Russell 2000 which is comprised of smaller companies who will benefit from Trump's promised tariffs. 

While it wasn't a market of quite so much significance to the world, we did have a winner in the NHL last night, a qualifier in two systems, and after a slow start the season has picked up with an overall ROI slightly above 25%.

In the NBA, the 'Overs on High Totals' system has started the new season positively too, with an 8-4 record to date and two more selections tonight, but the new 'Unders' system is 0-2 so far. 

Next Stop - White House or Prison?

Following up on my last post "Record Breaking" and one of my subscribers sent me an email containing some interesting data. Martin wrote:

I enjoyed your blog post 'Record Breaking' and was having a poke around myself so thought I would share my spreadsheet of Betfair ticks.

It doesn't look like much of that £1.4m @ 1.8 traded in the morning or afternoon, but £6m traded between 7 and 8pm, including £3.6m at 19:25-19:26.

Obviously Betfair is counting back and laid stakes so is double counting really, but that's still huge. I noticed the spike on their crappy charts on Sunday.

That's a lot of money and the backer is in a good position right now with Trump down to 1.59 / 1.6 at the time of writing.

Bogdan R left a comment on the same post asking:

How low did Trump trade in 2020? I remember something around 1.25. I'm not overly confident on Harris @2.30-2.40, but I'm tempted to leave a few lay orders on Trump, something like 1.40/1.30/1.20.

I looked back at my posts from four years ago, and in one of them I wrote: 

Trump's defeat is made all the sweeter given that on Tuesday night, with his odds as short as 1.24, he almost certainly thought he had won. 

Bogdan has a good memory.

Some of you may have heard about the trader known as "French Trump Whale" who had, at the time of this interview, bet $45MM on Trump to win the election.  

It promises to be an interesting night as the results start to come in.  Fireworks expected...

Record Breaking

I believe I'm right in saying that the largest market in Betfair's history to date is currently 2020's "Next President" market, in which around £125MM was traded up to and including Election Day before another £75MM was added during the period leading up to the Electoral College meeting in mid-December.

The total for the 2024 "Election Winner" market is currently at £154MM, and it's unlikely to be closed any time soon if Trump is the losing candidate.

This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress.

Earlier today (Sunday) there was a large amount looking to back Trump, a sum that I can't recall ever seeing before. The market moved to 1.8 / 1.81 but whether that huge amount was mostly matched or cancelled isn't clear but over £7MM has now traded at 1.8, far more than the amount traded at either 1.79 or 1.81. 

That Trump is favourite at all is surprising to me, although I'm trying to learn my lesson after misreading the 2016 Brexit and US Presidential Elections. I've layed Trump at various prices over the past few weeks, and this may not age well, but my gut feeling is that Kamala Harris will ultimately win fairly comfortably.

Neither Trump or his campaign are sounding confident, he looks physically exhausted and flat, and the latest polls are generally good for Harris. I could cash out for a nice profit, but I'm going to let this run. It could be running for a while though as Trump ramps up his "stolen election" claims and provokes civil unrest. Interesting times.