tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post5117717245121152100..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Kershaw Ka-Ching!Cassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-53031145657873050902015-06-19T07:42:55.003+01:002015-06-19T07:42:55.003+01:00I tend to agree with your comments about only gett...I tend to agree with your comments about only getting involved where you think you have an edge, but surely the barrier to becoming an expert trading some sports markets is much lower than for financial markets. And if you're taking a sensible approach then it doesn't have to cost a lot to test a strategy and determine, in a statistical sense, if it's positive expectation value. <br /><br />I don't disagree with your sentiment, but I'd rather encourage people to have a well considered attempt rather than not bothering at all.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567888989982430019noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-51179786014271160832015-06-18T23:12:03.435+01:002015-06-18T23:12:03.435+01:00Cassini,
Although I agree completely that spottin...Cassini,<br /><br />Although I agree completely that spotting a pitcher down from his peak before the market builds it in is a good strategy ( I had VerLayDer lay bets making money for a season but the market has long caught up with that) I still think that Kershaw is a superman amongst pitchers and isn't on the downgrade just yet. In fact, if the market does start reacting to his ERA too much he may end up being a value bet.<br /><br />Latest sabermetric analysis on Kershaw is (courtesy of BaseballHQ) is: -<br />6/8/2015 - Don't worry about Kershaw ... every year from 2011-14, Clayton Kershaw (LHP, LA) has been in a class of his own. Kershaw was a consensus top-five pick in 2015 fantasy drafts, and while rare for a pitcher, his elite consistency warranted such a move. But Kershaw's 3.36 ERA has been mere mortal thus far in 2015. Any reason to panic?<br /><br />Year IP ERA xERA Ctl Dom Cmd GB/LD/FB H%/S% hr/f FpK SwK Vel BPV<br />==== === ==== ==== === ==== === ======== ===== ==== === === ==== ===<br />2011 233 2.28 2.95 2.1 9.6 4.6 43/18/39 28/79 7% 64% 11% 93.4 137<br />2012 227 2.53 3.23 2.5 9.1 3.6 47/19/34 27/78 8% 65% 11% 93.2 121<br />2013 23 1.83 2.93 2.0 8.8 4.5 46/23/31 26/82 6% 65% 12% 92.6 130<br />2014 198 1.77 2.27 1.4 10.8 7.7 52/19/29 29/81 7% 69% 15% 93.0 187<br />2015 80 3.36 2.34 2.1 11.3 5.3 52/25/23 32/71 16% 65% 15% 93.5 176<br />Deep breath. He'll be fine:<br /><br />His Dom is at a career-high level, and it's supported by excellent SwK and a slight uptick in fastball velocity.<br />He's given back some of 2014's Ctl gains, but we're nitpicking. Kershaw is frequently getting ahead in counts and exhibiting pinpoint control.<br />2015's hr/f sure looks like an outlier. Combine that with unfortunate swings in H% and S%, and we quickly see why his ERA is more than a run higher than xERA.<br />Kershaw's "shaky" production through 12 starts means he's unlikely to provide a full return on preseason investments, but there's nothing wrong under the hood. Kershaw's missing plenty of bats, has an elite Cmd / GB% combo, and his BPV is still other-worldly for a starter. He's still the best pitcher in the game.fizzer555https://www.blogger.com/profile/08039129722970635303noreply@blogger.com