tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post9115645024764407952..comments2024-03-24T00:19:53.054+00:00Comments on Green All Over: Value Is Not An OptionCassinihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05879449876804295094noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-19271589542283730762013-10-15T08:18:05.595+01:002013-10-15T08:18:05.595+01:00early away goal or the red card or lack of motivat...early away goal or the red card or lack of motivation or human error etc . Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-25609383273349887952013-10-15T08:14:16.898+01:002013-10-15T08:14:16.898+01:00Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current ...Expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score and all the variables that are known to impede and accelerate goal production such as a red card and a early away goal . The flaw in any model based on goal expectancy is that a) goal to shot on target ratio is not consistent game by game and b) there is not a predictive model that can predict the earAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4528393111359731672.post-37239918032001064732013-10-13T19:09:28.973+01:002013-10-13T19:09:28.973+01:00At the risk of over quoting:
"Football prices...At the risk of over quoting:<br />"Football prices are derived from goal expectancies, the current score and the time remaining, and with occasional blips where a goal is more probable, the trend is pre-determined."<br />"Whether they should be is debatable."<br />"How is this debatable?"<br /><br />It's debatable because one might say:<br />The prices are real, the goal expectancies can be derived from prices using the inputs you mentioned, some you didn't and A MODEL. If someone has a different, better model (or believes one exists), or believes the model is bad then he would think prices should not be derived from goal expectancies etc.JLivermorenoreply@blogger.com