Elo Selections 5.Feb - 7.Feb

This weekend’s Elo ratings at the top of the English pyramid have Manchester United to win by 3 over Portsmouth, but at 1.14 this is a play on the Correct Score market. 3-0 or Any Unquoted.

To win by two are Chelsea at 1.87 and Nottingham Forest at 1.63.

Winners at home by one should be Burnley (2.68), Liverpool (1.9), Stoke City (2.4), Sunderland (2.14), Tottenham Hotspur (2.22), Birmingham City (1.87), Swansea (1.95), Barnsley (2.15), Blackpool (2.32), Bristol City (2.01) and Sheffield United (1.85).

Winners away by one: Manchester City (1.78) and West Bromwich Albion (1.87).

The other games at Newcastle United, Bolton Wanderers, Ipswich Town, Peterborough United, Scunthorpe United and Doncaster Rovers are predicted to be draws.

It’s interesting that the one goal selections range in price from 1.78 to 2.68. My numbers suggest that the Manchester City price is on the short side, but all the others are value. Chelsea at 1.87 are also excellent value to win.

Oh Danny Boy

Not quite how I remember that Thursday night from almost 20 years ago, but the BBC is never wrong.

No mistake about tonight's result though, with Palace dominating Wolves from the start and benefiting to the tune of nearly 1/2 million much needed pounds. Danny Butterfield scores 7 goals in 252 matches, and then hits a perfect hat-trick in 6 minutes.

The Elo ratings weren't playing Cup games, and they had a mixed night in the League games that were played.

No winners in the 3 Premier League and Championship games, but it got better.

League One saw the games at Colchester United and Charlton Athletic finish spot on, with the correct result at Leyton Orient too, and in League Two the draw at Crewe Alexandra was spot on as was the Histon v York City draw in the Conference. Other than that, nothing to brag about. Chelsea underperformed, as did Celtic and Aberdeen.

Tomorrow sees Fulham (1.78) win by 2 over Portsmouth, and draws at Blackpool (3.6) and Annan Athletic (3.6+, market very thin).

And finally, this from a friend today:

Fabio Capello called Wayne Bridge to tell him that John Terry had lost the captain's armband. "You couldn't take a look under your bed for it could you?" asked Capello.

Hang Cheng

Another winner for the Elo ratings today with Sunderland and Stoke City finishing all-square. Predicted draws in the Premier League are hitting at 39% which is well in profit.

Tomorrow's game is forecast a three goal win for Chelsea. Hull City are currently the lowest rated team in the Premier League at 735, and Chelsea are the highest on 2615 and the 1.3 available reflects that.

Most of the Correct Score money is on Chelsea winning 2-0, so perhaps the value is on 3-0 at 9.2 or Any Unquoted at 4.8. (The latter covers you in the event that Hull should win 4-0...)

Another idea suggested by my financial advisor son is to play these win expectancies in the Asian Handicap markets. Although liquidity is a bit thin, it is possible to back Chelsea -1.5 at 1.86 right now on BETDAQ. That seems like a value play. For the bolder investor, there's also a Chelsea (-1.5/2) market (rather thin again) with Chelsea priced at 2.09.

Meanwhile, the work has begun on incorporating the other strongest leagues in Europe but apparently it'll take me a while. Serie A is the first one to be added, and I started last night but got distracted reading about Messina's demise which I had somehow missed!

Wikipedia is great, but I start following the links and get completely wrapped up in interesting, but useless, facts about things I never knew existed five minutes previously.

Walk Like An Egyptian

Since everyone is titling their posts as above today, I thought I might as well follow suit. Could be a pyramid scheme that I need to get in on... or am I in de-Nile?

The Elo ratings got the Manchester City v Portsmouth result spot-on with the expected 2 goal win but Arsenal were out-played by Manchester United and the expected draw didn't happen.

A problem with picking the draw is that there is no room for error. You either hit it for a nice win at 3.4 or so, or you lose. With the 1+ goal predictions, you can back the winning team and get a winner even if the margin is not exact.

There are three teams in Serie A with the initial letter of "C" and Football Elite went for all of them today. The Recommended Bet was Cagliari, and two Short-List selections were Catania and Chievo but unfortunately all three teams drew to complete a negative weekend for the service. Cagliari were 2-1 up before being reduced to 10 men, so a little unlucky perhaps, but luck evens out over time.

I was looking at a very interesting link provided by Scott Ferguson showing the proofed results of horse-racing tipping services. As Scott says "Why bother risking losing your own money when there are people out there willing to pay for such 'great' advice..."

Matt (Football Elite) commented on the topic of only backing at evens or better, and his summary was that backing at shorter prices just doesn't pay. "Maybe the market is too efficient at that end of the market?" Perhaps, but my answer would be that if these shorter priced selections are failing to return a profit, then they are clearly NOT value selections. More research needed.

Finally, I am going to replace the Conference Regional leagues with Seria A and La Liga. Possibly the Bundesliga 1 and Ligue 1 also. The spreadsheet is certainly showing promise in the higher leagues, and I'm hopeful that the stronger leagues in Europe will also perform well.

I had an enquiry as to the availability of my spreadsheet, and while I am willing to share ideas in general, the spreadsheet does contain two years worth of proprietary data so it's not something I would want to be giving away. Besides, it's an evolving work in progress and will continue that way for some time.

Cream On Top

Once again, today saw a few gems for the Elo ratings, particularly in the higher leagues, but overall nothing spectacular. The draw predictions in the Premier League are hitting at an overall 38% right now, including the draws at Birmingham City and Hull City today. Everton did win by the 1 goal predicted at Wigan Athletic, with Liverpool and Chelsea both winning, but missing their expected margin by 1 goal. Disappointingly, West Ham could do no better than draw at home to Blackburn Rovers.

In the Championship 4 of the 11 games were spot on, 4 were winners but not by the expected margin, and the other three were off by 1 or more. Predicted draws in this division are hitting at 31%.

League One saw 4 spot on from 11, with 1 other winner.

League Two was pretty much a disaster with no spot-on winners, and only 2 winners overall, and the Conference was an unmitigated disaster with four away wins out of four and not one prediction even close.

In Scotland, the Premier League saw the Big Firm matches finish exactly as predicted, with Hibernian also a winner, and in the handful of other games north of the border, two were spot on, and one other was a winner.

Football Elite’s Recommended Bets today saw their first losing pick in 19 games, with Fulham going down at home to Aston Villa. I had this as a draw myself, so we were both wrong! As Matt said in his notes: “Villa could be on their day and get something, but at 2.75 you have to side with Fulham in my opinion”. Agreed that this was the value bet here, despite the result.

His other picks were Napoli who drew 0-0 at 1.92 v Genoa and Deportivo La Coruna who lost 1-3 v Real Madrid where even the ‘safe’ play of laying Real Madrid didn’t help me.

His Short-List selections saw a nice win at 4.0 for Borussia Moenchengladbach at home to Werder Bremen 4-3, and Hull City failing to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers – Drew 2-2.

One more recommended bet tomorrow, and two short-list selections. Overall slightly down including commission, with the Short-List selections faring better than the Recommended Bets.

I had a comment from an anonymous Curly about why a tipster might be reluctant to tip at odds-on, and he suggested that in part it could be because tipping at odds-on is something anyone can do, and that the moment one tips an odds-on loser everyone is critical. It would be interesting to hear Matt’s thoughts on this.

My own view is that within the category of odds-on, there is a huge range of probabilities. Odds-on simply means an implied probability of 50%+, it by no means necessarily means ‘almost certainty’ as some people seem to think. A fairly priced 1.7 shot will lose 7 times in 17 so there should be no shame in tipping one of these. Of course if you are tipping 1.1s regularly and hitting losers 7 times in 17, that would be deserving of criticism.

There is another football tipping service out there called AH Betting who according to the Betting For A Living blog “are now 27/61 for January at odds-on”. That would be cause for concern.

On a completely unrelated topic, I was out for a ‘lose-some-weight-you-fat-bastard’ run / walk this afternoon, and had the misfortune to cross paths with a young girl, about 5 or so, enjoying the fresh air with her mother and sister. Why she wasn't indoors playing video games I don't know. Kids today!

Anyway, as I approached, I saw the girl point to me and then heard her say very clearly “That man looks like Granddad” followed even more bizarrely by a certain level of agreement from the girl’s mother. All very puzzling. Either there was an old man somewhere behind me, or her Granddad must be an incredibly young looking and amazing athlete.

Hammers And Poppies

The Elo ratings are in form right now, and confident they will continue that way, in this weekend’s English Premier League, the best value bet is West Ham at 2.17 to beat Blackburn Rovers. I expect them to win by 1 goal and anything over 2.0 is good value for these selections. An additional bonus is that West Ham currently have (by my ratings) the best form in the Premier League.

Favoured by 3 goals are Liverpool and the price of 1.45 is a reflection of their wobbly form right now. With this win expectancy, 1.45 is value.

Teams favoured by 2 goals this weekend are Chelsea, a short 1.31 at Burnley, and Manchester City a not much better 1.32 at home to Portsmouth.

Everton should be one goal stronger than Wigan, but they are away and 2.38 is not generous.

The other games are predicted to be draws, although form favours Birmingham City and Hull City against Tottenham and Wolves respectively. Hull at 2.46 and a lay of Tottenham at 2.48 are my plays here. Draws at Arsenal and Fulham seem value at 3.4 each. A lay of Sunderland at 2.2 for Monday’s game.

Looking outside the Premier League, the stand-out value bet based on the numbers is Kettering Town, 2.4 at home to Crawley Town. Kettering may be missing their player-manager and captain, but for those like me who believe the market often overreacts to team news, 2.4 is a good price.

Other selections are Cardiff City (1.78) v Doncaster Rovers, Preston North End (2.54) v Ipswich Town, Reading (2.05) v Barnsley, Bristol Rovers (1.77), Carlisle United (2.04) v Leyton Orient, Leeds United (1.71) v Colchester United, Aldershot (1.75) v Grimsby, Morecambe (2.34) v Chesterfield, Port Vale (2.02) v Hereford, Torquay United (2.38) v Bradford City, Luton Town (1.47) v Ebbsfleet United, Aberdeen (2.16) v Motherwell, Dundee United (2.42) at Kilmarnock, Hibernian (1.7) v St Mirren, Inverness Caledonian Thistle (2.06) v Partick Thistle, Alloa Athletic (1.63) v Arbroath, Fofar (1.55) v Elgin City, Livingston (1.43) v Queens Park.

Pride Comes Before

Not to blow my own trumpet too much, just a small toot, but the Elo predictions don't come any better than my post on Wednesday. 4 out of 4 with every margin exactly right.

If only every match day was as accurate.

Matt from Football Elite also picked Blackburn Rovers on Wednesday. It's interesting to me that Matt doesn't select teams that are less than evens. I have written before about the fact that value can exist at any price, so it is puzzling to me that Matt (and indeed others) don't like to back at odds-on.

I can understand that recreational punters might not want to risk more money on a bet than they stand to win, but I think that punters with a more 'professional' approach would be quite happy to bet at 1.7 if that price is value.

I say 1.7 because that was Everton's price on Wednesday evening, which, for a team with the two goal supremacy I predicted, was a standout price.

Typically my 3 and 4 goal home selections are very short priced - they are your Manchester United v Hull City types of games, and for these I favour the Correct Score market, but then there are the 2 goal supremacy teams who typically are priced in the 1.4 to 1.6 range that offer value at anything much over that.

For the one goal supremacy home teams, the price is typically 1.6 to 1.8 and so anything at evens or above is good value.

As part of the evolution process of my spreadsheet, I am dropping the Conference Regional Leagues. For whatever reason, the results of predictions at this level are significantly less accurate than those higher up the pyramid, and with the liquidity being so poor on these games anyway, it just isn't worth the extra time and effort.

The Conference National isn't much better, but I shall persevere here for a while longer, even if no money is invested for the moment.

Weekend selections in the morning, but beware that I may have used up several weeks of luck on Wednesday! If you believe in that sort of thing of course.

Red Rose Value

Two value selections today in the Premier League. Blackburn Rovers are value at 2.03 to beat Wigan Athletic at home tonight.

For my reader who wants numbers and an explanation, Blackburn’s Elo rating is currently 948 and Wigan’s 921. After taking into account home advantage, the result needed to keep these numbers close to their current values is a 1 goal win by Blackburn.

Typically when the ratings predict a one goal home win, the price is a lot shorter – for example yesterday Tottenham were 1.68 to beat Fulham, so anything above evens is excellent value.

Also value is Everton at home to Sunderland. Everton’s supremacy is 2 goals and 1.7 is a great price.

For the record, Chelsea’s supremacy over Birmingham City should be 3, and Aston Villa v Arsenal is predicted to be a draw.

Worth a mention perhaps is that Crystal Palace’s odds for relegation plummeted from 19.5 down to a low of 2.96 yesterday, before settling in at 3.5. A nice play if you have inside information.

Perspective

I have long considered that the concept of fining someone a fixed amount for a transgression is inherently unfair. If I drive at 95mph on the M25 or park on a double-yellow line somewhere, I will probably receive a fine. It will be for a fixed amount. Whether I am unemployed, retired, on minimum wage, a lawyer or a multi-millionaire is not taken into consideration. The court just wants its ₤100 or whatever, and the fine is clearly not a fair punishment. To be fair, fines should not be fixed penalties, but should be proportionate to net worth or income.

It’s for a similar reason that I tend to keep this blog free of actual amounts won (or lost). It’s meaningless to read that Mr. Apple won ₤20 on an event or that Mr. Banana won ₤20,000 without knowing what the win meant in real terms to each individual. If Mr. Apple has a net worth of ₤200, then his win clearly meant considerably more to him, than Mr. Banana’s did to him, if he is worth ₤10 million.

Extreme examples admittedly, but they make the point. Reading other blogs, it is clear that some people are quite happy to make a few quid a day and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that. Any increase in your disposable net income is great, whether it buys a pint of milk, a pint of beer, pays for a nice holiday or allows you to give up your regular job.

When I started with exchange betting back in 2004, I was happy with any profit. My bank was at one time ₤21.40 and just a 10p win meant something back then. (Many years ago, when I was still in school, I once won a little over ₤1 during a lunch-time card game. I still remember the giddy excitement I felt that afternoon, as the winning of a whole week’s pocket money sunk in. I was rich!)

So it’s not the amount won that is important, it’s the relevance of that amount to your circumstances that is important. While it is perhaps all too easy to look on with envy as someone claims to be winning thousands, or alternatively to look sneeringly down your nose at people who make ₤2 a day, the truth is that whatever the results are is not as interesting to others as the method or thinking behind the investment decisions.

He's Not The Messiah

Troubling news today with one of England’s more illustrious clubs being forced into administration. The impending points deduction will mean that promotion becomes that little bit harder to achieve. A realist would say that promotion now becomes impossible. Assuming that the deduction is 10 points, Crystal Palace will descend from the vertiginous heights of two places from a play-off spot to the depths of two places away from relegation, and morale will not be high for tomorrow’s visit to table-toppers Newcastle United.

Saints Prayers Answered

After my relative success in the Colts – Jets game yesterday, I stayed up full of confidence for the NFC game with the New Orleans Saints at home to the Minnesota Vikings.

The confidence was soon dashed as I made a few mistakes on this one.

First of all, I am not a Brett Favre fan. I think he is an attention seeking drama queen, turning on the tears when it suits, whereas his opponent Drew Brees is one of my favourite quarterbacks, and the complete opposite of Favre – someone with a little class. I know I let this affect my investing.

Secondly, I had the Saints as favourites by ?? points, and really couldn’t see them losing. Another mistake – sometimes you’re wrong. Deal with it.

Thirdly, I was tired, and that is never a good state to be in when trading. As with driving, tiredness or alcohol do not make for good partners when trading.

Anyway, in a close game that could easily have gone either way, the Saints did finally prevail in overtime after our friend Mr. Favre threw a game-losing interception on the Vikings’ final drive. Ha ha. That moment alone was almost worth the money I lost, almost, but not quite.

So one more real game left this NFL season, since one can’t count the Pro-Bowl next week as a serious investing opportunity, and my numbers have the Colts by ½ a point.

The Saints have topped my ratings for the past several weeks, but after yesterday’s performance, they have dropped below the Colts and I would have to say that I expect the line to be several points higher and the Colts to win by more than that ½ a point.

Footy Round Up - Sunday January.24

Some excellent results today, with the Elo ratings predicting 4 away wins out of the 4 FA Cup and Scottish Premier League games today. Three duly obliged, including the two that I had an investment on. Form in Cup games is too unreliable.

Football Elite had a stellar weekend, with both recommended bets winning, Mainz at 2.05 and Palermo at 2.45. 11-15-2 is their full record now since I signed up, down to a level stake, but not by much, and only two losers out of 29 selections at better than even money is value to me.

The short-list bets did almost as well this weekend - 5 selections, and four winners at good prices:

Borussia Dortmund 2.52 v Hamburg

Deportivo La Coruna 2.44 v Athletic Bilbao

Getafe 2.56 v Atletico Madrid

Internazionale 2.66 v AC Milan

Ironically, the sole loser was the shortest priced selection of all - Udinese, who lost 2-3 at 2.1 at home to Sampdoria (after leading 2-1).

NFL Live Chat

The Indianapolis Colts have just beaten the New York Jets to reach the Superbowl, and a good result for me with the Colts coming close to winning by their expected supremacy of 12 points (they won by 13) and thus comfortably covering the -7.5 handicap.

It's always nice to get the result right, but equally was pleasing was the opportunity provided by Mark Iverson over at Mark Iverson - Professional Sports Trader to chat with other traders as the game unfolded and make calls about the more immediate events in the game.

It was an easy game to trade, no turnovers until late, with the Jets looking good early on taking a 17-6 lead, but the turning point was the final two minutes of the second quarter when the Colts are at their best. The Jets traded in the 1.50s at one point, but as I had hoped, the Colts scored to close within 4 at the half. The Colts have an excellent record of scoring in the last two minutes of the first half, and my comments were for once spot on.

The second half was all Colts, and the half-time price of 1.76 (of which there was an amazing £127k available) looked very generous. My bank isn't quite large enough to allow a bet of that size, even if it was value, but perhaps one day.

Anyway, an interesting idea which I think was enjoyed by the dozen or so people who joined, and hopefully everyone made money and there will be another event covered fairly soon.

The Noughties And Floating

This article, reflection on the last decade, was posted by Greg Wood Thursday 31 December 2009 12.58 GMT on guardian.co.uk

How it changed for the better The launch of Betfair in June 2000 has brought profound change to racing and betting, and was responsible for a golden decade for punters. When there is not a single newspaper tipster in the country whose return beats a blind bet on the favourite, you can be sure that form horses are running with exceptional consistency. By giving the authorities access to betting's "money trail", Betfair has also made racing much more difficult to corrupt. Other sports now come to British racing for advice on stamping out betting-related corruption.

How it changed for the worse The on-course betting market is dying on its feet (an inevitable, but less welcome, result of Betfair's arrival). Traditional racecourse bookies who travel the country to shout the odds are on the way out, and the track is a less exciting sporting venue as a result.

2020 vision: There is no reason to think that the second Betfair decade will be any less significant than the first. If they can crack America and then float, then by 2020 the international betting market could be increasingly dominated by Betfair and — perhaps - one other exchange. Fixed-odds and high-street shops will be seen as a very old-fashioned way to bet.

And continuing on the topic of Betfair floating, the Sunday Times today has this:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/leisure/article6999780.ece

Betfair, the online gaming exchange, has selected two investment banks to advise it on a £1.5 billion stock-market flotation.

It is understood to have chosen Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to weigh up options for its future, which include a possible sale or share listing.

A deal could lead to a giant windfall for Betfair’s founders, Ed Wray, a former JP Morgan trader, and Andrew Black, once a professional gambler. They own 25% of the company between them.

It could also mark an exit for Japanese backer Softbank, which has a 23% stake. However, a float is unlikely to take place until the autumn.

Travelport, the hotel reservations group, last week announced plans for a £1.8 billion listing, firing the starting gun on a dash to the stock market for a host of private companies in 2010. Hugh Osmond’s latest cash shell, Horizon, also fleshed out plans to raise £500m next month for deals.

On Betfair, gamblers can bet against each other instead of a bookmaker. The firm took two billion wagers last year and reported earnings of £72m, a 29% rise, on sales 27% higher at £303m.

It believes it is well placed to lead a consolidation of the gaming sector.

Pretty In Pink

Once again, the FA Cup appears to be Chelsea's for the taking. Already on Betfair they have traded as low as 2.48, but earlier I had a dabble on them at 2.94. While there is always the risk of a tougher draw for them at the likes of say Aston Villa, Manchester City or Crystal Palace, the Cup appears to be Chelsea's if they want it. Other competitions may well take precedence as the season unwinds, so I doubt that I will let this bet run for too many rounds.

The draw for the fifth round in a couple of hours will be interesting. If Aston Villa, Manchester City, Tottenham, Birmingham or Fulham are paired together and Chelsea avoid them, then that 2.94 will be looking even better.

Football Elite returned to fine form this weekend. After yesterday's aforementioned win for Mainz '05, Matt followed up today with what, at the time of writing, is looking like a solid win for Palermo over Fiorentina. 3-0 up with 7 minutes to go. How often does one get the opportunity to watch teams in pink and violet play each other?

There are also three short-list bets which I shall report on later.

Are There Any Women Here?

Drew The Winner

The NFL Conference Games are tomorrow and for what it's worth, I have the Indianapolis Colts rated 12 points better than the New York Jets in the NFC game which makes the Colts -8.5 at 2.1 a value bet.

In the later game for the AFC championship, I have the New Orleans Saints 7 points better than the Minnesota Vikings. The Saints -4.5 at 2.08 are the value bet here as the classy Drew Brees sends drama queen Brett Favre into the NFL sunset.

Curate's Egg

A bit of a mixed bag today for the Elo ratings. For the second week in a row, Manchester United were spot on, Crewe won comfortably, and in Scotland Aberdeen were a good bet for me, but one or two others let me down. None of the selections lost, (although Stirling Albion and Livingston left it very late) so the conservative approach of laying the opposition would have paid off nicely.

Football Elite returned to winning ways with their recommended bets as Mainz '05 beating Hannover '96 1-0. Since I signed up, their 27 selections are now 10-15-2, and interestingly, 22 have been under 2.5 goals. And just 2 losers is impressive. Again, a conservative approach would have reaped rich rewards.

From their short-listed bets, Borussia Dortmund beating Hamburg by 1-0 and Deportivo la Coruna beat Athletic Bilbao 3-1 for a very profitable day. The running total for these is 39 selections, going 15-15-9. 24 unders / 15 overs.

Port Value

Another Saturday is here, and a quiet league schedule due to all the 'big' teams being involved in FA Cup action. Teams such as Accrington Stanley, Crystal Palace, and goodness, even Brighton, are still in, all boosting their bank accounts with much needed additional revenue from cup ties.

Meanwhile, less successful teams (I'm not mentioning any names) are labouring away in the league trying to trim their £716m debts with a home game against Hull City, or possibly out playing golf while neighbours Everton play Birmingham City.

The best value bet this weekend is Port Vale at 2.1 versus Macclesfield, followed by Aberdeen at 2.0 v Kilmarnock.

Other selections are Carlisle (1.62), Norwich City (1.51), Crewe Alexandra (1.57), Rotherham (1.62), Oxford United (1.55), Stirling Albion (1.7) and Livingston (1.51).

Manchester United (to win by 4) are being backed via the Any Unquoted at 3.1, and Rangers are value at 1.43 to beat Hearts.

No Stopping Photo-Shopping

The topic of photo-shopping came up again last week. In the wake of Mali's comeback in Angola, someone was (somewhat bizarrely) claiming to be the unlucky loser on the wrong side of the 999-1 layed on Betfair. Nevermind that the real loser was from Sweden, and the big winners were from Moldova, Germany and Cyprus.

From the Irish Independent by Wayne Bailey on Saturday:

Earlier this week, a story did the rounds about a man who supposedly risked €4,400 to win €44 by backing Angola in-running on Betfair who were 4-0 up with 11 minutes to go. Their opponents Mali, however, fired in four goals late on and the match ended in a draw costing the man a small fortune.

When offered a few quid from one of the redtops for his story, the man admitted that he had 'photo-shopped' his profit and loss and the whole thing had been made up.

This guy's story may have been a fake, but similar tales of woe (and euphoria) happen for real every week on the exchanges and the in-running markets can be both a goldmine and a minefield all wrapped into one.

In other news, I see that Psychoff have today called time on their blog. Speaking of dead or dying blogs, does anyone out there know what became of John Tuohy, aka the Gambler?