Improbable Is Not Impossible

Paul stopped by on the last post to say this:

Sorry for making such an uninspiring first post, but I am more a consumer than contributor being very new to the trading side of things (and damn do I have a long way to go!).

But I was hoping you might be able to indicate where John Walsh's NFL selections are to be found? The NFL is one sport where I feel a bit more confident, but (possibly due to not seeing what is right in front of me) I can't locate where his predictions are published - nor whether they are 'free' or a subs service?

Thanks for any help, and for the most entertaining blog which is a great help to a 'newcomer' such as me.

John Walsh's selections are available via Peter Nordsted's Trade on Sports newsletter:

If you would like to receive these picks on a weekly basis throughout the NFL season then you can do by subscribing to the Trade On sports Newsletter here

I believe they are free, although Peter's use of the word 'subscribe' implies otherwise, but Peter is a frequent visitor who will doubtless clarify the situation.

John finished off the NFL weekend with a nice winner at 2.65 as the Philadelphia Eagles comfortably beat NFC East rivals Washington Redskins and also had the Over 50.5 come in for a total profit of 2.15 points.

On the subject of traders being either unwilling or unable to share their loss size : win size ratio, Anonymous suggested another possibility:

Or maybe you're just overestimating your own importance to readers of the blog?

That category would be covered by the "Can't be bothered, or aren't interested" category, and that's all fine and dandy. I happen to like these kinds of things, but I understand not everyone loves their numbers as much as me. It remains an interesting topic though, and I really would like to see more data to confirm or refute my theory that the ratio for a perfect trader will in the long run be close to 1:1, with, of course, more winning markets than losing ones.

Mark Iverson stopped by after I had penned the above to add some data:

Only just had a chance to take a look at my numbers (since 2008)....
NFL -
Markets: 250
Ave Win: £86.15
Ave Loss: £83.10
S/R: 79.6%

In comparison....

Cricket (until end of Aug) -
Markets: 1199
Ave Win: £230.85
Ave Loss: £231.59
S/R: 84.24%

Interesting to see that your NBA results are as important to you as cricket is to mine.

Given Mark's experience with trading, his average win size slightly exceeding his average loss size in the NFL, and very close in cricket, is in my opinion, testament to his prowess as a trader, especially when you consider Mark's strike rate which is actually quite remarkable.

As for the comment that my NBA results are as important to me as cricket is to Mark, it doesn't take a rocket surgeon to calculate Mark's winnings from cricket, and they are some way ahead of my NBA winnings. I do have him beaten on the NFL though, and a few of those games were ones where we co-hosted a trading room and I remember Mark's approach being a little different to mine. Whereas Mark tapered to the point of little trading late in the game, where volatility becomes more extreme, my approach was, and still is, to be more involved later in a game.

A classic thread from 2007 has been resurrected on the Betfair Forum. The opening post by a 'kenniky' proposed a modified Fibonacci based progressive staking system on under / over 2.5 bets and added that after eight losing bets ...

"Naturally you have no profit...but it's impossible to lose 8 bets in a row"

As is always going to happen with these silly ideas, less than a month later (certainly ahead of schedule) the eight losers in a row came in and kenniky was never heard from again.

I saw a quote the other day:

When you are dead, you don't know you are dead. It is difficult only for the others. It is the same when you are stupid.   

The Conference prices have finally been updated at football-data.co.uk and the top (in the money) of the revised FTL table now looks like this:

Gundulf had a post on his blog about the FTL table, noting the similar strike rates for many entrants, and noting the differences in returns. It's too early in the season as he says, but it will be interesting to see how these numbers mature.

Dastardly Doubles

Well we have one contributor, albeit anonymous, but that's ok, to the loss size: win size ratio question with a 65:43 ratio (66%) but from a small sample size of just 120. Not too far off my numbers, but it would be interesting to see more. Thank you anonymous.

Still no official prices for Saturday's Conference games, so the FTL table below is provisional. The positions are extremely unlikely to change, but the numbers for the top boys may adjust slightly.

Scatter Gun couldn't find a winner from the last two matches of the weekend, but he has had a good couple of weeks after a poor start to the season, and at exactly zero, it's a brand new season for him and starting again from third place (up from 10th) and in-the-money.

Skeeve maintains his first place, but worth mentioning is the bad luck he has had with his official double bets, having had six all so far come up empty, or rather come up with one winner and one loser. If your double is going to lose, at least the selections could have the decency of both losing or both winning! In the good old 80s I used to back short priced favourites in certain sports in accumulator bets quite often, but they are not for me any longer.

The NFL season got into full swing last night, with two more games tonight to round off Week One. Not sure how many of you follow John Walsh's NFL selections, but they have been solid over the last few seasons, but he made an average start today with four winners from eight selections and a small loss to date. He does have a couple more selections for tonight though, so that can change.

Not a bad day for trading though, with a couple of games flip-flopping and the successful day was marred only by the New York Giants six turnovers leading to a five point loss to the Dallas Cowboys when I had the Giants getting 3.5 - and the most annoying thing about the loss is that it wasn't on Betfair.

Trading baseball has pretty much died a death this year, with the method of backing the home side once the starting pitcher has been removed proving hard to implement due to the lack of any money in the markets. Occasionally I get lucky, and last night's late game was one such occasion, a result that lifts the 2013 profits over those of 2012, and my best baseball season since 2009 - so I suppose I shouldn't complain too much. And we still have the post-season and World Series to come.

When you see the below on Betfair's homepage, you know the year is almost over:

It'll be Christmas soon. I must be getting old.

Loss:Win Average Size

A resounding zero replies after 24 hours to my request for comparisons on average trading loss to win sizes which suggests that readers are one of the following:

Not serious investors and thus not keeping detailed records - unlikely since the importance of keeping records is one of the first rules for successful trading

Too busy - unlikely on an International break weekend

Unwilling to share proprietary information - unlikely given that the data doesn't reveal anything selection or strategy specific

Can't be bothered, or aren't interested, in researching their numbers because they don't see it as being relevant

Someone who's numbers came in worse than mine and is ashamed

Or maybe no one trades any more!

Tamworth v Southport - Clash Of The Titans

"Tamworth v Southport - Clash Of The Titans" might seem a little too much hyperbole for a Skrill Premier game, but the title doesn't refer to the match itself. The titans are Skeeve and The Football Analyst (Graeme Dand) who wasted no time at all in going to war with Tamworth and Southport as their proxies. Not quite a proxy war on the scale of the Korean conflict, but with Graeme on Tamworth and Skeeve on Southport, it made for an interesting Saturday afternoon.

Tamworth won handily 4-1 with the benefit of a penalty and an own goal and The Football Analyst took the points. No official prices updated yet, but Skeeve will lose about a point overall, while Graeme will make a small profit because his second selection (Woking) lost 1-3 at Alfreton Town.

Skeeve's other selections were Chesterfield in League Two who beat Accrington Stanley 1-0, and in the Conference Premier Barnet (lost at Halifax Town), Lincoln City (lost at home to Salisbury City) and Gateshead (beat Hereford United).

A good weekend so far for the Scatter Gun, who as things stand leads the table after 4 winners from 8, but two matches remain. Scatter Gun is looking for 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2 in these games:

I lost some money on betting yesterday, no big deal, but for anyone who thinks a loss is something of a disaster, check out Paddy's post today at Betfair trading to Gamblers Anonymous - it's actually one of the most disturbing posts I can remember reading and can only hope that Paddy is getting the help he clearly needs.

Average Loss:Win Ratios

The much anticipated debut selections of  The Football Analyst are here, and they are from the Conference Premier League:

The bets (with current Pinnacle prices in parentheses) are Woking (2.88) at Alfreton Town and Tamworth (2.21) v Southport. Higher prices than Pinnacle's are available on the exchanges, so depending on your premium charge / commission situation, you should, as always, shop around.

Rubicon made a winning selection of a lay of Croatia, coincidentally the only World Cup qualifier I had money on with an opposing lay of Serbia. Skeeve's associate's Croatian Football Bets recommended a back of Croatia with the Draw No Bet, but I went for the safer lay option meaning that both Rubicon and myself profited from the 1-1 result.

Unfortunately for Rubicon, he will have to make do with just his winnings, as these matches do not qualify for the FTL.  

Skeeve of course has more selections with his leagues of expertise not impacted by the International break, 

In plenty of time, Emp has already submitted a whopping 23 selections for next week. There is no maximum number of bets, although I encourage the number to generally be 10 or less to avoid me having to retire and run the FTL full-time, but as Emp says:

though given there is money (however small) on the line, I do feel I should be able to make this larger number.

Since I didn't specify a limit, Emp has a point, so I am happy to go along with this number. Scatter Gun may feel slightly aggrieved at being encouraged to stay at 10 selections for the opening three weeks so in future, I'll work with as many as he wants also.

What I suspect will happen is that with as many as 23 selections, value will be wafer thin, and losses will soon mount, but I hope to be proven wrong.

My old buddy Mark had a post from August 13th that I had not read until yesterday, (too many bookie adverts on the blog...) talking, refreshingly honestly it has to be said, about a big loss on the cricket. One line caught my eye, which was this:

However, what is apparent is that when I’m unable to rescue a situation, I’ve been settling for a loss bigger than my average win.

I think most traders are probably guilty of this. Traders who cut their winning bets prematurely will certainly see their average win size lower than their average loss size. My numbers for the NBA illustrate this all to clearly - after almost eight years (1463 matches), the losses to wins (median) are:

For the NFL, (290 matches, so a much smaller sample), they are even worse:

It would be interesting to know how the results of others compare. I suspect that a 'perfect trader' will be closer to or indeed above 100%.

Manning Up

Regarding the FTL, Anonymous asks:

When's the last time we can join, I don't usually start betting til we've at least a couple of months of results. Are there rules as to how many months need to be bet in or when the first bets should be in?

You can join at any time, but to qualify for a cash prize you need a total of at least 64 bets, and each month (August and September count as one, as do April and May) after joining must have at least 5 selections.

The pot increased by another £25 yesterday with the entry of The Football Analyst, and with the top leagues not in action, and many entries inactive, it will be interesting to see how his lower league selections fare. Leader Skeeve should be in action too with some Conference Premier selections qualifying. The current table now looks like this:

Also playing this weekend is Scatter Gun with ten matches all destined to end 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2. He's on a roll with five winners last week, and here are his upcoming selections:

Bradford v Brentford

MK Dons v Swindon

Burton v Oxford

Carlisle v Port Vale

Halifax v Barnet

Northampton v Scunthorpe

Den Bosch v Volendam

Mallorca v Alcoran

Eibar v Cordoba

Padova v Palermo

A big start to the NFL season from Peyton Manning last night, throwing a record equalling seven touchdown passes (last time was 44 years ago) in one game as favourites Denver Broncos easily covered the 7.5 point spread winning 49-27 against the Superbowl Champion Baltimore Ravens - admittedly the latter are a quite different team from last February's.

It was the largest ever opening day defeat by a defending Superbowl Champion. The Broncos also left a TD on the field as Danny Trevathan celebrated a yard early and dropped the ball. The half-time chat was once again key here as the first half was pretty even with the Ravens actually leading by three at the break, but adjustments get made and half-time (or just before) is often a good time to lay the leader.

Fog Clears

There's an excellent post on the Wallpapering Fog blog about the big part that luck, or probability, plays in the outcomes of football matches. If you never understood why "two hypothetical teams which are exactly identical in every way and take an average number of shots each, will only draw 27% of the time" read this article. There is also some good information in there for anyone looking at creating their own football model.

Webbo has signed up for the FTL, which makes 12 entries and more to come, which in turn means that prize money now pays out down to fourth place. Good news for Peter Nordsted as things stand with him holding second and fourth places.

The NFL is back tonight, historically my third best trading sport, with its twists and turns providing plenty of opportunity for trading. It's one of those sports where the leader is often backed down too short in-play, and where greed is so often followed by fear. Not so much matched on the opening game as previous seasons, but there's usually decent liquidity on games when there is just the one in-play so let's hope for the best.

Here's a post from early in the NFL season a year ago with some links you may find interesting over at Betting Exchange, even if they are a preview of last season.

Skeeve Takes The Lead

The only people excited about this week's FTL update will be Graeme, aka The Football Analyst, Scatter Gun, and possibly Skeeve. As I mentioned last week, Graeme will be paying a bounty of £25 to anyone finishing ahead of him in the FTL table, and as he hasn't yet started, the only beneficiary will be Skeeve who leads the table after a good weekend finding three winners from four and is the only entry in profit.

In descending order we have Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting who were strangely idle this week, Forza Fizzer (one for two and a small loss) closely followed by Peter's Drawmaster.

Debutant Rubicon's lay of Liverpool didn't pan out, Fedslam had one winner from eight selections, the XX Draws Under 2.5 selections had just 5 winners from 14, and Football Elite had two losing selections.

Scatter Gun had his first winning week with 5 winners from 10 to reduce his deficit, while another debutant Webbo started his campaign with 1 winner from 3. He is yet to pay however, as is the third debutant Emp (Prabhat) who went 0 for 4, so they remain in italics until their entry fee is received.

Payment via PayPal to calciocassini @ aol.com

The Bundeslayga had another poor week with three losers. Punter's Friend Neil had one winner from seven, and the XX Draws had a poor weekend with just two draws from 14 and remain rooted at the foot of the table. Crystal Palace v Sunderland saw a 79' penalty take away the draw, but in the history of the XX Draws, never have I been so happy to see a draw bet go down. I don't imagine it was only me who felt that Palace looked more like Champions League contenders than relegation candidates. Oh it was?

The Football Analyst should be making his long awaited and much anticipated debut after International week, and the table is certainly showing signs of a tough season to date. However it is still early days, and several entries are only a little in the red, so still all to play for and finish ahead of TFA and get your money back at worst.

And of course, any new entries will start in the money as the table currently stands, so don't be shy.

As always, if you see any errors with your numbers, please let me know. Contrary to popular opinion, I am not perfect, and the occasional error may slip through.

Seconds Out

My last post announcing The Football Analyst’s entry into the FTL ignited something of a firestorm in the comments section, with the combatants losing sight of what the F stands for. Friendly!

I am not going to reproduce all the comments here or my post would rival one of Graeme’s in length, but they are available should anyone be interested.

A brief summary is in order though, and it all started with Neil (Punter’s Friend) expressing surprise at Graeme’s decision to apply for entry into the FTL. He quoted Graeme as saying:

"probably the worst tipster league I’ve ever seen published anywhere on the net?"

He also said that:

"Putting my systems into Cassini’s friendly tipster league would be like Barcelona playing in the Bsq Prem for a season"

Now Cassini has a thick skin, (most selections are not mine anyway), and he is also prone to tongue-in-cheek comments along the lines of Graeme’s “Barcelona in the Blue Square Premier League” himself so no harm, no foul.

There was mention of a thread on OLBG which runs to 48 pages, so I only glanced at the opening and closing pages, but the gist of it seems to be that someone (perhaps Neil) started recording bets on laying odds-on home favourites, but finally wrapped it up after (inevitably) early profits were almost completely eroded by subsequent losses. [Correction - I did say I only glanced at this thread. I am told by Neil that the idea was laying away teams in all English Leagues, and in two seasons "it did not lose any money"].

While the Bundesliga, as something of an outlier among the top leagues, continues to offer slight value to home / odds-on layers, I haven’t seen the same returns consistently from any other leagues. The trap that many fall into is that a season seems like a long time, and a large sample, but in statistical terms it is a miniscule snapshot, and often the difference between profit and loss is one freak result such as Barcelona losing at home to Hercules.

Whether anyone is claiming an ROI of 18% or not on such a simple system, such a return does seem highly unlikely over any significant length of time. ROIs are really quite meaningless until you have a sample size of, in my opinion, at least a hundred. Over the short term, you could find seasons where a simple strategy is profitable (Lay Liverpool is a current favourite) but it’s unlikely that any such system will be profitable indefinitely. The chances of the system maintaining profitability are reduced even more by advertising your short-term success on a betting forum.

Whatever the deal is between Neil and Graeme, the latter’s entry into the FTL, with his promise of £25 to anyone finishing ahead of him at the end of the season, is a positive. With Graeme making the selections available to all ahead of time, you have the option of profiting from them yourself, or winning the £25 if they are losers. Win-win.

A couple of comments have compared the Neil v Graeme debate with the occasional disagreement between myself and Mark Iverson, the latest being the frankly dangerous and awful Soccer In Play app which seems to me to be nothing more than a bookmaker sponsored gimmick designed with the sole intention of making the less sophisticated bettor think they have an edge, and throw money away.

As I pointed out in this post, the app has a grand total of FOUR sets of results, with no details on how, when, or from what leagues these numbers were obtained. Enter any two classifications of teams for any league in the world, and your pre-game probabilities will be one of the following:

That Chelsea would have the same probability of beating Tottenham Hotspur or Crystal Palace would seem to most of us to be quite ridiculous, and how Mark can claim that the app is in any way a useful betting tool is frankly incredible. Football matches cannot be broken down into four outcomes.

The most worrisome aspect of this misrepresentation is that a few less than sophisticated bettors will possibly be seduced by this toy, and lose money, and to highlight the occasional ‘win’ as support for the idea that the app is anything but garbage is disingenuous to say the least.

The basic idea remains a good one though, but to be useful you need to be able to enter individual teams, and the data needs to be league specific and frequently maintained. Many of us have our own models that we update each week, (time-consuming, but essential), and the odds on a home win will not always be one of these four - 1.55, 2.02, 2.42, 3.52

Looking ahead to this weekend’s matches, FTL leader Fedslam has the following selections:

Cardiff City v Everton - Cardiff win
Newcastle United v Fulham - Draw
Norwich City v Southampton - Norwich win
West Ham United v Stoke City - Over 2.5 goals
Crystal Palace v Sunderland - Draw
Liverpool v Manchester United - Draw
West Bromwich Albion v Swansea City- Draw
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur - Over 2.5 goals

As he is the only non-service in profit, those are the only selections you get this week.  

A late comment from Anonymous went like this:

Geez Cassini, you sure do seem to have a knack for creating a bit of buzz and controversy!

Think I remember you from the 'Ultimate Betting Forum' could be wrong of course.

Please say something nasty or skeptical about my new blog, so that I get a bit of free traffic, I'm pretty lonely talking to myself
: )

As Gary pointed out -

And Anonymous it seems, missed the name part lol : )

Webbo could be Anonymous, as he requested adding http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/blog/ to the blog roll.

And Anon could be wrong about the Ultimate Betting Forum. Never heard of it, never mind contributed to it.

Wise Man Of The Betting Blogosphere

The Carrot Dangler

If Graeme Dand, aka The Football Analyst, @TFAsystems is lacking anything, it is most certainly not confidence. I threw down the gauntlet in my last FTL update post and Graeme has not only picked it up, but has proceeded to metaphorically heartily slap each of us around the face with it, both cheeks, while calling us "losers". Kind of.

His email is below in full, but the highlight is that Graeme is not only happy to join the FTL, but is so confident of success and glory that he will also be dangling a £25 carrot for each and every entrant who finishes above him in the FTL table.

Graeme and I go back a long way. I believe I was in short trousers waiting for my voice to break when I first crossed paths with him in a discussion about horse racing and edges back in 2008, and he is a good egg.

Here is Graeme’s email in full, with my responses in brackets.

Hi Cassini. Hope things are well. [Things are well]

Just saw your blog post re. the FTL. [Try to read a little more frequently - there's some brilliant stuff on here].

I'm happy to get involved if entries are still allowed? [Entries are indeed still allowed. The only requirement is that the minimum total number of bets will be 64, and each month (August and September count as one as do April and May) must have at least 5 selections. Late comers can join at any time (might be an idea if everyone is deep in the red!) but the will need to make a pro-rated number of total selections, plus the minimum of 5 per month].

I won't have bets for a couple of weeks as I need 6-8 games to be played in each league. Given the start you guys have had, I'll pay the £25 entry and also put up a carrot of £25 to each person who finishes above me in the table! [Like rabbits, we love carrots].

Based on last year's FTL performance, any system I had would have won the league, so there's minimal risk I hope! I'll build a unique system for the FTL so you don't need to worry about pasting the bets beforehand. They won't match the subscriber bets. [Bring it on big boy!]

Only thing I need to know is how the league is ranked. Is it based on pts won or ROI? [The league is ranked on points. I do show the ROI as some people are interested in this number, but the points are what really matter].

I'll build a system to win the league based on either. Let me know your thoughts. I'm away on holiday from today, so may be slow in replying mate but as always, I'll reply when I can. No worries if I've missed the boat. Always next year! Hopefully my offer of £25 to each person who finishes above my system would ensure anyone in the league already doesn't mind me joining. :) 

And I thought I was modest! Well, the more the merrier, and the prospect of extra money coming into the pot must surely appeal to all those currently signed up, and possibly to anyone interested in joining the party. Finish ahead of Graeme and you at least get your money back. 

£25 PayPal to CalcioCassini @ aol.com is all it takes to join the fun - plus a few selections of course.

And finally, I’m not sure what prompted it, but Random Man commented that I am what Fergie “might have called the Dennis Wise of the betting blogosphere”. For those unfamiliar with Sir Alex’s words, he once said about Wise that “he could start a fight in an empty house” but I think Random Man may have simply meant that I am a wise man...

Soccer In Play

Danny Murphy is back, but with a considered and accurate comment on a subject I don't think has been discussed too widely in the blog world:

Cassini I must congratulate you for the excellent reading of the Sunderland Fulham pre match odds in your recent Betting Expert article of August 13th.

This is in stark contrast to a similar attempt by Mr Mark Iverson on the Norwich Everton match in his blog.

To me his pre match model appears to be very crude, grouping teams into very broad bands as it does. How you could rationally argue Norwich to be 2.41 shots against Everton is beyond my comprehension and it should be noted the market had Norwich at 3.81 at kick off.

The funny thing is Mark's conclusion of either backing Norwich or laying Everton was correct, albeit for the wrong reasons. If you know your odds construction there is no way Norwich could be much less than 3.00 for this game unless Everton had a lot of injuries but in fact it was Norwich who had injury doubts themselves. Norwich at 2.41 is not a credible percentage against such a strong opponent.

If Mark had seen Norwich at 3.81 and viewed them as 3.00 shots that would be rational but the 2.41 was a rogue figure.

Perhaps it is a case of 'garbage in garbage out' with this model?

In my opinion, an app of this kind would be an excellent idea, and something that would well be worth a lot of money if it worked. The idea of being able to input two teams and the current game-state and see the probability of various outcomes based on historical data is as good as it gets, especially if it's for free, but unfortunately, the "Soccer In Play" app is not this model, and falls short in a number of ways.

For a start, it does not allow you to input two teams, but only two, often very subjective, categories of teams.

The input options are limited to A Top Team, Top Half Team, Bottom Half Team and Relegation Candidate. While the category for some teams in some leagues might be clear-cut, the definitions are vague, and many teams are hard to categorise, especially early in a season.

There is also no opportunity to select the league nor indeed any indication of what league or leagues the historical data is from. This is important, because the statistics from the Bundesliga are quite different from Ligue 1 for example, and each league and division has its own personality.

The app does say that it uses “data from across the top leagues in the world” which implies more than just Europe, but where these leagues are is unknown. South America perhaps, but presumably not MLS where there is no relegation and thus no team would ever be a "Relegation Candidate".

There is no consideration for form, but even more seriously, the numbers are simply wrong, or 'rogue' as Danny phrases it.

The image below gives the projected pre-game percentages for the 16 possible combinations of matches between the four classifications of teams.

Look closely.

Now does it really make sense that “A Top Team”, would have the same probability (0.6453) of beating a “Top Half” team as they would of beating “A Relegation Candidate” or a "Bottom Half Team"?

And those exact same numbers are coincidentally the same for a “Top Half” team beating a “Relegation Candidate”.

In fact, of the 16 possible combinations, (allowing for rounding) no less than five are 41 / 29 / 29, four are 65 / 22 / 13, another four are 28 / 27 / 44 and the other three are 49 / 28 / 23. 

Is a “Bottom Half” team really as likely to beat another “Bottom Half” team as it is a “Top Half team”? Mark uses Norwich City v Everton as an example of this latter match up, but his model would generate exactly the same odds were Norwich City at home to say Cardiff City, Stoke City or Sunderland.

Is “A Top Team” really as likely to lose at a “Top Half Team” as it is at a “Relegation Candidate”?

For a “Relegation Candidate”, they apparently have the same probability of beating “A Top Team” as they do a “Top Half” team, and identical probabilities when playing a “Bottom Half” team or another “Relegation Candidate”.

But only at home. Away, they have the same chance of winning at “A Top Team” as they do at a “Top Half” team. I would love to see the database for these statistics.

There are some other anomalies which you can see in the numbers above, but the bottom line is that while playing with the app may be a curiosity, it is certainly not an app that should be used for making investing decisions. The ULTIMATE in-play soccer app it is not.

The numbers discussed are those pre-game, but there is no evidence to suggest that the quality of the in-play data would be any better.

The presence of a bet365 advertisement on the app is revealing though. I've seen them advertise somewhere before. At first sight, one might wonder why on Earth a bookmaker would sponsor such a valuable weapon in the punter’s arsenal, but on reflection, it’s all rather obvious - along with why the "Soccer In Play" app is completely free. 

Out of interest, I looked at tonight's Freiburg v Bayern Munich match, and my model has Bayern Munich at 1.29. Soccer In Play has them at 2.26 (if Freiburg are considered relegation candidates, a bottom half, or a top half team). Betfair has them at 1.275.

Full Disclosure: I have no affiliation with Danny Murphy, the Soccer In Play app or bet365 and screenshots are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be considered recommendations. 

Fedslam Leads

Apologies to fedslam whom I suggested had taken a break from selections this week. As he corrected me, he had in fact made several picks, but because I was away for the weekend and in catch-up mode, I forgot that his selections come from a different email name for which I offer my sincere apologies. The good news for fedslam is that he now has a whole post dedicated to a study of his selections, which included one from last night’s big match at Old Trafford.

Here were his selections for the weekend, with a few nice winners in there.

FULHAM v Arsenal
Hull City v Norwich City – Draw
Newcastle United v West Ham United – Draw
Southampton v Sunderland – Over 2.5
Stoke City v Crystal Palace – Over 2.5
ASTON VILLA v Liverpool
CARDIFF CITY v Manchester City
Manchester United v Chelsea - Draw

He certainly wasn’t the only one to expect more from Fulham and Aston Villa, and Norwich City were arguably a little unlucky to lose. Two draws from three and a win for Cardiff City more than made up for the losses though, and fedders is back in the title hunt going from 11th to 1st in one fell swoop.

Here is the updated table:

The more awake among you will have realized that you can enter the FTL now, and with a starting total of zero, already be in third place. I am just saying.

Hits, Not Runs

A little surprisingly, none of the FTL entries have any selections from tonight's Manchester United v Chelsea game, so I can publish the FTL. It's not too impressive that only one entry (of 13) is currently in the green, but it is still early days of course.

Last week's leader Forza Fizzer dropped a couple of points, although I personally played his Inverness Caledonian Thistle selection by laying Celtic which was a winner.

Second placed Football Elite went for a back of Aston Villa, with the Draw No Bet, but this one was a loser, and third placed Punter's Friend had four lay selections, only one of which obliged by failing to win. Here's the latest table:

The XX Draws had a mixed weekend with nine of eleven selections staying Under 2.5 goals, but only three of the matches ending even. The last two matches of the weekend were both perfect (0-0) draws and nine winners was good enough to lift the XX Draws U2.5 to first place in the table, but the three draws this weekend means that the same selections backed as draws stay in the wooden spoon position. In baseball terms, we are getting hits but not runs right now.

Premier Betting had a better weekend, with three winners from five FTL selections and four from seven official winners, and move up to third. The Bundeslayga system found one winner from three for a small loss, and Skeeve's FTL entries found one winner from three selections.

Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster again found one winner from five selections for another small loss, while Fedslam took a rest this week.

Scatter Gun improved on previous weeks finding three winners from ten, but another small loss on the week. He needs to stop selecting Coventry City at "home". They followed up a 5-4 win v Bristol City two weeks ago with a 4-4 draw with Preston North End, and their four league matches to date have seen a total of 26 goals. It's a brave man who picks Unders on Coventry's matches these days.

Bets On, Feet Up

Current FTL leader Forza Fizzer (Tony liked the proposed name, and the FTL Management Committee approved it at their weekly meeting) has two more selections this week, and here they are along with his reasoning. 

Staying in the Scottish Prem this week with two selections:-

Away wins for Aberdeen and Inverness Caledonian Thistle.

OK , Inverness first.

I might be falling into the keep picking them trap, but I picked out Inverness pre-season as the most underrated team in the SPL and took the Evens on them finishing top 6 and had a small flutter on Billy McKay to be top scorer.

Great start and the last fixture Celtic would want this weekend after the tiring and demoralising Euro trip this week, and the need to be fit and ready for what is now a vital 2nd leg fixture for them next Wednesday.

Inverness won one of their two league visits to Parkhead last season (at odds of 13.0) and go in on a high - odds of 8.0 on Betfair look too big to ignore.

Aberdeen have shown their ambition in pre-season, building their squad, and they also have a proven forward in Niall McGinn. Before last weeks loss they had a strong away win at Motherwell.

Hearts have done well so far given they have to go with their youth, but they haven't played a team of Aberdeen's level. 2.28 with Betfair.

Celtic v Inverness - a match that always reminds me of that classic 2000 headline. The only other currently profitable entries are both subscription services (Football Elite and Skeeve) so those will remain confidential until after the weekend's action is complete.

On a different note,  Steve R commented on my Work post with this:

After all, the first question after meeting someone for the first time is often "So what do you do?", and instant impressions are formed depending on the answer.

Re the above, so this means that basically we are all defined by what work we do, rather than who we are? This to me, based on life experience, is plainly wrong. I am not concerned with what somebody does for a living, compared to how they are as a friend or fellow human being. This may sound "wishy washy" but when you experience happiness or tragedy with family or friends, you do realise that financial success is truly unimportant. It is the misconception that possessions, materialism and great wealth equates to happiness. You can certainly have happiness without it and conversely you can have great wealth and still be miserable. There are other things that induce happiness, life does not have to revolve around work.

Your blog was an interesting read on a Monday morning though! Have a good week and best wishes to you.

What a polite young man. This is certainly taking the idea and running with it, because our work alone does not, or at least should not, define us. My comment was meant to illustrate the important role that our work plays in how others see us, certainly initially, and the ‘meeting someone at a party’ example does illustrate this. It’s usually one of the first questions asked when you meet someone new, be it in the pub, seated next to you on a flight, or indeed at a party, and the answer, like that all-important first impression, makes a difference to your perception of that person. That initial impression may well be modified later as you get to know them better, but we all make instant judgments based on the answer. The nature of someone’s work is often a guide to their intelligence, education, background, interests and personality.

A reply of “barrister” will ensure that your perception of that person is quite different to a reply of “stand-up comedian”. (I have heard both incidentally, with the latter [Bill Engvall for those interested] owing – in my opinion – much of his later success to recycling some of the excellent jokes I told him at that party. I am still awaiting my share of his estimated $40 million net worth by the way, but he was a nice guy - just not quite as funny as me, although I was in particularly sparkling form that night).

You can also have fun with your answer. As most of you know, I work in IT, and my career has seen me work in a lot of industries. One was pharmaceuticals, and depending on my audience, at that time I would sometimes answer the “what do you do question” with “I sell drugs”. In some shadier settings, that reply would trigger some interesting responses, the best was probably “you and I need to exchange phone numbers”. His perception of me was certainly different from what it would have been had I answered “I’m in IT".

But back to the original comment – no, work doesn’t totally define us, nor should it, but it’s often a useful opening bucket to assign someone to, and my comment on 'rich' was intentionally limited to the financial definition. I agree totally with Steve that financial success, however you define it, is really unimportant in the whole scheme of things. Few would argue that working your socks off for thirty years and dying of a stress-induced heart attack is something to strive for, so keep the work-life balance in perspective.

Speaking of which, I shall be off in the next few minutes for a well-deserved weekend getaway myself with no laptop. Enjoy the games, and good luck this weekend.

Revill's Range

From the Huddersfield Daily Examiner today, comes another sorry tale of greed and addiction. I liked the line that the subject bet on sports 'ranging from tennis to football" as if sports 'range' in that way. Is cricket within that range or does it fit before tennis or after football?

An IT manager ordered £18m worth of computer equipment through his employer’s accounts and gambled away the £5m he made from selling it, a court heard.

Jonathan Revill, from Shepley, was employed as a service delivery systems manager at a Leeds subsidiary company of GDF Suez – one of the world’s biggest energy companies with a billion pound turnover.

He was earning a £55,000 a year salary with bonus and a £400 a month car allowance but had a “serious addiction to gambling,” Mehran Nassiri prosecuting told Leeds Crown Court yesterday.

Less than a year after he started working for the firm he realised he could place orders that would not be noticed.

Although he was limited to £3,000 purchases without further approval he forged signatures and over the next three years ordered £18,976,062.63 worth of equipment.

That was delivered either to his home in Huddersfield or to storage unit and quickly sold for less than its value either on E-bay or to six different companies.

Revill’s dishonesty only came to light earlier this year when an audit revealed financial irregularities but by then he had gambled away nearly all of the £5.6m raised. The only asset now left is his £500,000 house.

Even when he was bailed while police inquiries were continuing he spent £2,500 on further gambling.

It is understood Revill bet on sports ranging from tennis to football.

Revill, 38, of Marsh Lane, Shepley, was jailed for a total of seven years after he admitted four charges of fraud and three transferring criminal property.

Sentencing him Judge Geoffrey Marson QC said: “In three years you used 104 invoices to order property to the value of almost £19m. It is a vast amount of money.

“You were addicted to gambling – all the money has gone on gambling save for your house which you will now lose.”

He said fortunately the company had a one billion pound turnover so was not going to be forced into liquidation by its loss.

Ben Hargreaves, representing Revill, said he was made bankrupt in 2005 and was then out of work for four months and got into debt before he joined GDF Suez Energy UK in 2009. He quickly realised there was an opportunity for him to be dishonest.

He said it was a simple fraud “not ingenuous” involving him creating invoices and forging signatures on them. The items were sent to his home or the yellow Storage Box Company in Leeds from which he tried to sell them quickly taking a loss of some 70% on the cost.

Mr Hargreaves added: “The money has been spent on gambling, that is his tragic downfall.”

He said Revill had tried to win big to pay back the company and at one time had £3m in his account “trying to get myself out of the hole I’d dug” but that had gone.

He was relieved to be finally caught and was shocked at the total involved.

Det Chief Insp Mark Griffin, who heads the Leeds District Proceeds of Crime Act Team, said: “Revill abused his position of trust and defrauded his employer on a massive scale to feed his addiction to online gambling.

“His actions have destroyed his life and affected a number of businesses. This case clearly highlights the very serious consequences of gambling addiction and illustrates how effective the Proceeds of Crime Act is in helping us to tackle offences of this nature”.

Few And Simple

Following last night's demolition job by Manchester City, all results have been tabulated for the FTL and the current standings are:

Some administrative notes before we get down to the individual results, and the first is that entries eligible for the cash prizes are shown with a ($) before and after their name. I am also going to include the 'official' results from services such as Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting and Skeeve. For example Premier Betting this weekend had twelve official bets, but some are non-qualifiers as far as the FTL is concerned because the Half-Time prices are not recorded by the excellent football-data.co.uk web site, and neither are the Under 1.5 prices. Where the bet is an Under or an Over, the FTL records the 2.5 goals market, but Premier Betting sometimes tip the Under 1.5 and the Under 2.5 so only one bet makes it into the FTL. Since this might be seen as doing the service a disservice, I'll try to track the full results using those given by the service. Clear as mud?

Skeeve sometimes puts his selections into doubles, but to keep things simple, the FTL will treat these as two single bets, but track the official results as well.

So in descending order, Fizzer (I chose the name Forza Fizzer as a temporary measure pending an official choice of name) went for a no nonsense approach selecting one team (albeit one with a rather long name) and one winner as Inverness Caledonian Thistle beat Motherwell 2-0 at a Pinnacle price of 2.59. Very nice start. I personally got matched at 2.52 on Betfair and close to kick-off the price had shortened to 2.36.

Football Elite will be pleased to get into profit early this season selection just one bet also, Nice who beat Rennes 2-1.

Skeeve had one winner and one loser, Alfreton won, Luton drew, but Alfreton's Pinnacle price of 2.09 ensured a small profit.

The Bundeslayga selections had one qualifier in the end, but Moenchengladbach won easily for a losing bet.

Pete's Drawmaster returned for the new season, but one winner from five (Norwich City v Everton) meant a small opening day loss.

Last week's co-leader Punter's Friend went for five home lays, but only one (Sunderland) obliged by failing to win.

The XX Draws Under 2.5 bets had just three winners from nine selections with four matches seeing four goals, and two seeing three. Two of the matches saw all four goals come in the second half.

Premier Betting started the FTL season with a win on the Liverpool v Stoke Unders, but lost the other five of six selections. Arsenal v Aston Villa and Swansea City v Manchester United both went over, while Chelsea v Hull City somehow stayed Under, as did Sunderland v Fulham, and Cardiff City needed more than +0.5 to cover at West Ham United. Their official bets included five half-time bets, only one of which won.

Fedslam will not look back on opening weekend in the EPL too fondly, dodging winners in all six selections. The failure of Crystal Palace to beat Tottenham Hotspur was especially upsetting.

Scatter Gun repeated week one's performance finding two matches from ten ending 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2 for another loss, and propping up the table are the XX Draws.

Just two winners from nine meant a second losing week. Winning draws at Norwich City (v Everton) and Toulouse (v Bordeaux) were the good news, with the hard-luck loss of the week being Southampton scoring a 90' penalty at West Bromwich Albion with the perfect draw in sight. A couple of other selections were draws as late as the 76' and 79' but it's a long season and any bad luck will even itself out. I hope.

The mistake I mentioned on Saturday was backing Croatia Football Bets selection of Dinamo Zagreb to cover -1.75 rather than the -1.25 stated. I nearly got away with it as Dinamo Zagreb led 2-0 until NK Lokomotiva scored in the 78'.

All in all a disappointing weekend for many of us, and so far the lesson seems to be to keep the number of bets few and the type of bet simple.

Work

Caan Berry over at Trading A  Profit on Betfair's Exchanges brings up the subject of being rich, prompted by his reading of the 2007 book "The 4 Hour Work Week" by Timothy Ferris.

I've come across a rather interesting book just recently, i'm not all the way through it yet although i don't think its going to be long! If i can find time to read it that is!

So far it's really made me think, what is rich?

Because everyones rich is different.... or so it should be. Does it really matter about the 6 figure bank balance? or is it just the lifestyle we hoped for that we associate with that?

I think for me, i have spent along time associating a great life, early retirement with large monetary values but its not always the case. What is the point in working 40 hours a week and living for 2 days where you spend one of them starting to relax and the other dreading the day after?

So when i think about it like that already, i'm already rich. I don't have a boss to answer to if i want a holiday or to check how much of my allowance is remaining, i don't need to fret and worry about working hours, i certainly don't have to work 40 hours a week and still i find myself in a position of well above the average income. To top it all off i enjoy doing this every day!!

So it seems like i already am in a great position although i think this last year has only really just been the start for me!!

Nothing else to report other than the usual, would be really good to hear some views on the above questions though? is it why you're interesting in trading the sports markets?

I'll update and talk about my thoughts on the book later next week as i'm having a long weekend this weekend!!

Leaving aside the wishy-washy stuff about richness being about family and friends and relationships and focusing on financial richness, it is of course all relative. Not only relative to others, but relative to your previous position in life. If you inherited  £5 million are are now down to £500k, you may not feel rich whereas someone from more typical humble beginnings starting out with very little might well consider themselves rich with that same amount.

I think I've written on here before that by one definition, the crossover point into richness is reached when income from investment exceeds expenses. It's at that point where earned income becomes technically unnecessary, although why so many people find their jobs so unfulfilling that they would rather quit at this point than continue to enhance their quality of life is a little baffling.

We are all different, but reaching the crossover point is immensely liberating, so even if you hate your job (which begs the question why didn't you change years ago to something more palatable) you can do something else. Caan talks about working 40 hours a week and then living 2 days a week. Perhaps this is true if you are working on a production line or employed in some form of manual labour, but I suspect most people reading this work in a more white collar environment, where work is not all work, but an integral part of our lives and probably something we take some pride in. Work is often more than just financially rewarding. After all, the first question after meeting someone for the first time is often "So what do you do?", and instant impressions are formed depending on the answer. It's something of a paradox, but in my experience, the more you enjoy your job, the sooner you will be in a position to leave it. If you enjoy your work, it ceases to be work and success (financial and otherwise) often follows.

The 'working' part of my week is blurred these days any way, but if anyone dreads going in to work on a Monday, they have some changes to make in their lives. Life is good every day.

I'd also say that I wouldn't consider myself rich if I ever needed to "check how much of my allowance is remaining", nor would I enjoy trading if it was my main source of income and "did this every day". There are easier ways to make money if that is your main goal in life. Early retirement sounds like a dream, but more and more successful people are now working way past the traditional retirement age, and not because they have to.

We live longer than we used to, and 'work' no longer means working 40 hours in an office between 8 and 5 with lunch between noon and 1. With telecommuting, many jobs now, including my own, are at least part of the time work-from-home. (At last week's training class it was stated that 28% of the company now work from home). I often put in hours from home myself (sometimes doing double duty with trading which is perfect) and take days or hours off to compensate, and the older you get, the more senior you become, and the more time off you are allowed and the better the benefits and bonuses. Work gets easier in other words. It's a bit of a shame to slave away and then quit just at the time when it is all about to become easier anyway.

On the other hand, I am not planning to delay retirement to the point where my time left to travel and physical ability to do so are limited. When that time is will be different for all of us, with a number of variables involved, but in my view 'work' shouldn't be thought of as the four letter word that it is.

E(&W)PL Opening Day Notes

It's a little like the night before Xmas when we were kids. Entries to the Friendly Tipster League have continued to flood in, (well, two more yesterday) and everyone sees action this weekend as the curtain goes up on the E&WPL - more on this later.

Some selections are of course proprietary, (e.g. Skeeve, Football Elite, Premier Betting) but I can reveal that Inverness Caledonian Thistle are tipped by Fizzer to beat Motherwell, and that the Bundeslayga has hit a technical problem. Having layed Werder Bremen at 1.92, they are now out to 2.03 on the exchanges and 1.99 at Pinnacle making them a non-qualifier so far as the FTL is concerned.

Punter's Friend (Neil in disguise) has the two Bundeslayga selections (Moenchengladbach is the other), plus lays of Sunderland, St Etienne and Monaco.

Fedslam goes for Norwich City to beat Everton, draws in the Sunderland v Fulham and West Bromwich Albion v Southampton matches, Over 2.5 at West Ham United (v Cardiff City) and home wins for Swansea City (v Manchester United) and on Sunday, for Crystal Palace (v Tottenham Hotspur). I like that one.

Peter Norsted's Drawmaster is back, and I am pleased to see that he has slipped the surly bonds of having to find exactly three each week from the EPL. He has four this weekend, plus Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen. The EPL games are those at Norwich City, Sunderland, Swansea City and Crystal Palace. I like that one too. Just not quite as much as I like Fedslam's,

The mentions of Cardiff City and Swansea City remind me of a conversation I had recently with Mrs. Cassini. Scott (PT) sent me a link to an article about Nate Silver and the likelihood that Scotland will vote for independence next year, (which is slim to none) and I mentioned this over dinner to the lucky lady. "Why won't they want to throw of the yoke of English oppression too like the Welsh did?" she asked, but she may have been getting confused with (part of) Ireland at this point. (She is American of course, and I hear this 'oppressor' line from her a lot).

I then pointed out that 10% of the English Premier League are not actually English teams, at which point she started to get very confused. "Well that's stupid. Why do they call it the English Premier League then"? 

She has a point. I blame the confusion on the cider rather than my explanation. Thanks Scott (who is no Scot) for the link. The majority NO vote at 1.17 looks excellent value on the exchanges.

Not sure I can blame the cider for my early morning mistake a few minutes ago, but I shall explain more tomorrow.

Note to self - wear reading glasses before that first cup of coffee.