Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.
Monday, 1 January 2001
Lay Last Loser
The Lay Last Loser System is used in the top five English Football Leagues, and lays the last team to lose in each division until they win again. The idea was found on a post on the Betfair Forum and suggested excluding the Premier League and laying teams in their next two games. I have modified this to include the English Premier League and to keep laying teams until they win again. The reasoning appears to be that once a team loses, the market rates them higher than the team might rate themselves! Confidence is powerful, and a loss can quickly make a serious dent in it. The system is complete for the 2015-16 season, with the final summary as below:
The 2016-17 season saw this system take a small loss:
I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
No comments:
Post a Comment