I'm not sure it's too cool to talk about the size of profits once they are over and above a certain amount, so I'll just say that I have tonight had one of my better wins on the NBA.
The game in question was the Boston Celtics v Philadelphia '76ers. Pre-game, I believe Boston were pretty short favourites, around 1.15 (give or take a point). So with 5:01 remaining, I see that the game is tied at 80. Now my thinking is that if the teams are tied with 7/8ths of the game gone, then the teams are pretty evenly matched, and the odds should be a lot closer to evens than the 1.25 / 1.3 that the Celtics were trading at.
I took the 1.3. Mild panic sets in as I think I'm missing something - the Sixers have had a player sent-off perhaps, so I sit back ready for the Celtics to go on a late run, but happily watch the Sixers take a 5 point lead. Finally the market wakes up to the fact that the Sixers might actually really win the game, they see-saw to favourites, and I lay off locking in £200 should the Celtics come back, and significantly more if the Sixers should hold on.
They held on. And I was joking about the Sixers having a player sent-off. I'm in the mood for jokes right now!
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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