When time permits, I occasionally browse the forum for information, but sadly for the most part the threads are pointless or repetitive and not worth bothering with. Posts pointing out losing 1.01s, or nothing to do with the sport under which the post is made abound. But occasionally one catches the eye, and one such is currently in General Betting titled "Koo's Comeback Thread". Koo is an interesting character. It appears that he won a small fortune, actually a large fortune, backing a 1000-1 winner on Betfair, and then proceeded to lose most of it back. Now he's back with a little more discipline, though how his heart copes with the huge wins and losses I have no idea! (The world of horse racing is not one that I am privy too, and I leave it alone, but I can see the appeal with an abundance of opportunities each and every day).
One comment in particular caught my eye, and it was on the subject of greening-up. Someone posted: "Koo....been reading the thread with interest. Just wondered if you ever green up on these outsiders when they come close or do you tend to just let the bets ride. ta"
His post, and I hope neither he (nor the question poser for that matter), will mind me reproducing it here, was as follows:
"I tried to green up a bit there, but I think the others who backed it at big prices kept gazumping my prices. I thought it was the winner from 2 out, so wasn't gonna lay at 5's and more just to get say 4-5k out of it whatever happened. Even with a big green number on my bet - I wont give money away by laying miles over the true odds just to secure a green screen. Long term thats a bad ploy."
Essentially, as I understand it, Koo was in a position to green-up, but the cost of doing so was too much. He wouldn't green-up because it wasn't value to do so, and as he stated, long term, that is a bad ploy. One should not make a bet unless it is value, whether it be an entry bet or an exit bet.
It did get me thinking though, because I know that I have been in the same situation in other sports, and have laid off at poor value just to guarantee a profit. I guess my fear of a big loss outweighs my greed of going for the big win and this is something I need to work on. There is something about that big red number on my screen that allows me to take a poor value bet to exit a position and lock in green-all-over when I would never take the same bet to enter a position.
Something for me to be aware of and work on. Thanks Koo.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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