The bank stands at £1,070.28 so today I am laying to 1% on 20 selections, which are: Sheffield Wednesday (playing at noon) followed by Tottenham Hotspur, Sunderland, Bristol City, Burnley, Charlton Athletic, Hartlepool, Oldham Athletic, Tranmere Rovers, Barnet, Brentford, Darlington, Macclesfield, Morecambe, Oxford United, York City, Dunfermline, Livingston and Airdrie at 3:00pm and at 5:15pm, Exeter City. All prices are between 2.84 and 3.6.
The system to date has a strike rate of 82.1% so I'm prepared for four losers, but anything less than six would be great. Six, ho-hum. Anything more than six, not so great.
Update: For some reason, a big drop in the price of the home team has eliminated three of my selections from contention, and they are Barnet, Macclesfield and Dunfermline. Early this morning I left lays in the market, and my strategy is to leave them alone until 2:30 and see how many have not been taken. One of the four unmatched selections was Tottenham Hotspur, who had drifted slightly and I adjusted my bet accordingly. The other three (mentioned earlier) had all drifted significantly so I am dropping them. I did not have this issue last week, so it will be interesting to see how those teams fare today. The Barnet bet had actually been partly matched at 3.2, but then drifted out to 3.75 so I was able to green-up on this one (for peanuts, but I am not allergic to peanuts, especially risk-free ones). If anyone knows why the price drifted out so much on any of these games, please enlighten me. Presumably some significant team news.
Result: Sheffield Wednesday did not win, so a winning start to the day.
Result: 12 of the other 16 games played so far resulted in the predicted four losses (next week I'll try predicting no losses) so the bank now stands at £1,085.24.
In the final game of the day, I have layed Exeter City for £4.52 at 3.4 to lose £10.85.
Result: ...and shouldn't have done! Exeter won, so I lost.
The bank is now at £1,074.38 - up just £4.10 on the day. As I said in the original post - ho-hum. But a profit is a profit.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
I've been following your selections for about a week with some interest. we are entering a difficult phase of the season for punters so perhaps you could adjust your 'lay' selections to only include sides who have some something to play for. just a thought, good luck.
ReplyDeleteGary
Hi - thanks for the comment. I'm presuming that you mean I should include only teams that are playing 'against' teams with something to play for, and that's a very valid comment. I'll look into it. I wish I'd satrted tracking these games earlier in the season, but next season will be here soon!
ReplyDeleteRob