Euro 2008

The second most important tournament in international football got under way this weekend and all four games went to the favourites, and all four finished under 2.5 goals.

I like to back the unders in these tournaments, especially the first round of the group games. I usually take a relatively large position pre-game, and then lay it off as time ticks away. The early goal in the Croatia-Austria game was slightly concerning, but I changed my trousers, kept my nerve, and everything worked out OK.

It always seems that the price on the unders drops too steeply for the first 3 minutes or so, before it stalls for another 5 or 6 minutes. For example in the Germany - Poland game, the unders at the start was 1.89 / 1.90 - after three minutes the price was 1.81/1.82. That's a nice move in three minutes. Strangely, the prices then stalled for five minutes, and then dropped precipitously from 1.8 / 1.81 to 1.67 / 1.68 in two minutes. I need more data, but does anyone have a system that is based on backing the unders and laying it off early in the game? Comments, as always, very welcome.