Today sees the final of a very entertaining Euro 2008, with steady Germany playing a very impressive looking Spain. Germany's run reminds me of the way they un-inspiringly progressed to the 2002 World Cup Final only to lose to the better Brazil.
I think the same will happen today and Spain will triumph but having said that I think the value is in backing Germany with a view to laying the bet off at maybe half-time. Germany are available at 2.54 outright and I plan to lay this off at half-time if the game is tied or Germany are ahead. If Spain lead, then I shall await Germany to do what they seem to do quite often and manufacture a result when they are not the better team.
And although the under/over 2.5 goals market is off-limits to me today, I wouldn't discourage a bet on the unders with a view to laying it off after 15 minutes. These finals are usually low-scoring affairs. Usually.
PS: Thanks for all the comments on trading the under/over 2.5 goals market post. Good stuff.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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