I seem to lose focus when trading. The pattern seems to be that I get myself into a good position early in an event, before I start making bad decisions and lose some, or all, of the ‘profit’ that I have accumulated.
Notable examples are football and basketball. By half-time I’m sitting pretty (it’s just an expression), but something happens to me in the second half (greed?, tiredness?, over-confidence?, boredom?) and I start making bad decisions until by the end of the game I’m far worse off than if I’d just stopped at half-time.
I’m learning though. In the Czech Republic – Turkey game yesterday, I greened up on the over/under 2.5 goals at half-time and left it alone after that. But then I didn’t learn in the Lakers – Celtics game, which I think was probably down to tiredness. I try to sleep before these middle of the night games, but I suspect it catches up with me, and whilst I’m focused and alert in the early stages, the tiredness kicks in.
Anyway, something to watch and learn from and maybe add to my Rules of Trading. (Coming soon!) Anyone else suffer from this? Comments appreciated.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Maybe you are just focusing on the times you were trying to increase your profit and failed.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure there are many times you were sitting pretty and managed to make it better...its human nature to focus in on the times it didn't work!!
You may have a point there, which is why I really need to keep records on this. It seems that if I have a particularly good first half, then I struggle in the second, but if the first half is so-so, then I improve in the second. Thanks for your comment anyway.
ReplyDelete