I have written before on here how it is my opinion that having daily targets is a bad idea. For one thing, value opportunities do not not come along with the same frequency. (Most sports have busy days and quiet days for example). Some days I do not find any value bets, and on other days I might find two in the space of two minutes. Quitting for the day upon reaching an arbitrary profit is senseless, and of course the other problem with setting a short term target is that you put pressure on yourself to meet that target, and thus try to find an opportunity that really is not value.
Having said that, I do suffer from a strong reluctance to record a negative profit on any single day, which is really just as bad. I record the results of every market by sport every day and I know I have taken bets at bad value simply to show a profit. I guess the solution is to just look at the bottom line every month, but it's a hard habit to break. I find it immensely annoying to have to record even the smallest of daily losses. My longest run of profitable days is 42, my longest run of losing days is 4 in April 2007.
So, this is the only target I have, as such. Other levels that I like to beat each day, but that I can honestly say do not factor into my decision making at all, are my 10 and 30 day moving averages, my one year moving average, my all-time average, and my current year average. I like to beat these because if I don't, it's no big deal but my charts take a dip and that is not pleasing to me. Obviously the 10 and 30 day averages are particularly volatile so the key ones for me are the 1 year moving average, and the all-time daily average.
I also enjoy beating the daily average income for full-time male employees (£71.15 per day) and females (£56.29). As I've said before, numbers are fun.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Good post.
ReplyDeleteMy target is £200 profit or £40 loss a day.Whichever hit first i stop trading/betting after that.Touchwood it is going great as win day is almost 80%
Making £4.5k average per month.
I never touch any odds below 1.7
Yes sometimes it is hard to find value but it is possible if your portfolio is big.
Cheers.
But why would you stop at £200 when things are going well? That makes no sense to me. Nor does never backing at sub 1.7 - there is often value at shorter odds. What sports do you do? What do you mean by 'big portfolio'? That's an impressive monthly average though!
ReplyDeleteHi Cassini,
ReplyDeletei'm wondering if you could share your spreadsheet related to your PL analysis. I'm very bad at excle and dont know how to have anice format and easy use of the betfair data once exported to excel.
Thanks in advance,