Towards the end of the football 2007-08 season, I paper traded a laying system that I have been developing for 391 matches.
Although this was a limited sample, the selection criteria did show some interesting trends which indicated that in the matches I selected, there was a significant favourite-longshot bias. I'm not going to get too carried away, but I am going to continue monitoring these matches and will play with a small bank for added interest.
Statistically, the system had 277 winners from 391 selections (70.84%) and made a (pre-commission) profit of £47.44. There were two Longest Losing Sequences of 5, although since many matches take place at the same time, and in many cases the sequence is alphabetical, this may not be too relevant.
Early lay selections for today are Leeds United and Rushden and Diamonds.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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