Reviewing my spreadsheet, as I tend to do from time to time, I am constantly reminded of my worst day on Betfair - New Year’s Day 2007. I placed an ill-advised bet of an amount that I was not comfortable with on a football game where I had no edge, and of course the bet lost. £5k gone. Although it was money that I could afford to lose after a stellar 2006, it still wasn’t something I was happy about. I remember feeling overwhelmed with tiredness and having to take a nap - which is not something I do very often.
What possessed me to gamble like that? I think it was simply that I wanted to get the year off to a flier, and so anxious was I to do this and get some profits on the board, that I impatiently gambled instead of invested. A stupid impulse which completely backfired and which took me a little over 7 months to recover from.
Early 2007 was not good at all. Three losing months out of four, and a maximum drawdown of over £16k in mid-May before I was able to turn things around. Looking back on those days, I’m sure there was a subconscious element of chasing involved, and it was only when I fully accepted the losses that I was able to regain my focus and start clawing my way back.
But sometimes these losses can be good things, as strange as it may seem. They are a painful reminder of what works, and what doesn’t work, and of the importance of staying disciplined.
In a way I am glad that bet lost.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Great entry, these bad losses can stick with us for a while, particularly if we are focused on the money rather than the process. The downswing can cost more money, but perhaps a little more in time. Saying all this, the lessons are priceless! I wouldn't be without my losing runs, the info I have learned from them is invaluable, I might have a few fewer grey hairs however..
ReplyDeleteMatt
Punt.com
If you don't learn from your mistakes in life, you don't get anywhere, whether it's punting, business or playing golf. No successful person ever got there with a perfect record. You learn more from your mistakes than your successes.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that theory worked too well for me where golf is concerned, but otherwise you are correct!
ReplyDelete