I had a small play on BETDAQ on the Boston Red Sox to beat the Tampa Bay Rays this morning at 1.72. The pitching match-up looked to favour the Red Sox with Matsuzaka having pitched 7 innings for no runs in Game 1 of this series, and the Ray's Kazmir having a nightmare giving up 5 runs in 4.1 innings in Game 2. The value looked to be with the Red Sox.
The price was four points better than Betfair, but my plans to lay the bet off after the Red Sox took the lead went adrift when the Rays took the lead and pulled ahead. In the bottom of the 7th, with two out, the Red Sox were down 0-7, but incredibly they came back to win 8-7.
Unfortunately I didn't lay any of the 1.01 that was traded on Betfair. Given that this was the biggest comeback in an ALCS game in nearly 80 years, and with just 7 outs remaining, I think the 1.01 was actually value.
Sometimes not being able to lay off can be a blessing in disguise, and only 2% commission on my winnings. I do have to say that for trading the game in-play, BETDAQ was really disappointing.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
The Bet Angel software is out for all and is free:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.betangel.com/main/downloads.php#babd
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