The Presidential Election will be decided in twelve states. The outcome in the other 38, barring something bordering on miraculous, is already decided.
To become President, 270 Electoral College votes are required. Currently Obama has 233 'in the bag'; McCain has 155.
Obama thus needs 37 more votes.
A look at the latest polls in the twelve swing states shows Obama ahead in 10. North Carolina (15) is a tie, and Indiana (11) has McCain ahead.
Obama leads in the following swing states:
Florida (27) 51% - 46%
Pennsylvania (21) 55% - 40%
Ohio (20) 50% - 45%
Virginia (13) 50% - 47%
Missouri (11) 50% - 47%
Minnesota (10) 51% - 40%
Colorado (9) 52% - 43%
Nevada (5) 47% - 45%
West Virginia (5) 50% - 42%
North Dakota (3) 45% - 43%
Although the Bradley effect is a concern, a week in politics is a long time (there are still 4 weeks to go), and there is still one more debate, Obama is looking good for the win.
He has big leads in the three most important states, and if he picks up just one of those, it should be enough when combined with two or three others. Two of the top states, and he's home and dry.
Keep checking the latest polls, but to my mind he is good value at 1.22.
Update: 18/10 Of the ten states above, the Democrats are now odds-on favourites to win the top 8, (116 EC votes) - and we are looking at a landslide victory for Obama. That 1.22 is now down to 1.17, but still good value.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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