Obama has firmed up at 1.14 for the upcoming election. With less than two weeks to go, and a commanding lead in all polls, bar one, that looks to be a fair price.
At least no one could accuse the Associated Press of fudging the numbers. Their results just happen to differ from the others. Probability theory dictates that it is possible to obtain the opinions of 300 million people by using a sample of just 1,500. Below this number, and the margin of error gets larger; above this number, and the gains in accuracy are insignificant.
The founder of polls, George Gallup said that one spoonful can reflect the taste of the whole bowl of soup, if the soup is well-stirred. The APs spoonful just happened to be a little unstirred. Either that, or the US is in for a big shock come Election Day!
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Obama looks like a pretty good bet here, even though it's tough to bet him at these odds.
ReplyDeleteAgreed - I backed him as low as 1.22 a couple of weeks ago but the Bradley-Wilder effect is a slight concern which puts me off backing at 1.13.
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