My football ratings for this afternoon's Setanta game have priced Aston Villa at 3.05, and Manchester United at 2.48. Available on BETDAQ at 4.85 and 1.91 respectively, the value seems to be with a back of Villa, but being a cautious man, I'm laying United.
On a sidenote, I'm watching the Correct Score prices on the Chelsea - Newcastle United game. It's not a market I've studied much before, although I have dabbled with finding an edge on the 0-0, combined with bets on the No Next Goal, (no) First Goal Odds and (no) First Goalscorer markets, but anyway, I found it kind of strange that three of the prices would fall during the first half.
The 0-0, 1-0 and 2-0 scores all dropped. I'm watching to see at what point in the game the prices on the 1-0 result start to reverse. (2-0 started trending back at about half-time, 4.3 from 6.8). 20 minutes in to the second-half, and it's still dropping - down to 2.74 from 9.2.
I layed the 1-0 in the first half, and now I'm torn between hoping it stays 0-0 or Chelsea score with enough time to add a second. Of course if Newcastle could score...
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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