As part on the ongoing process of improving my approach, I have found that I have a tendency to allow my liking for certain teams to influence my investment decisions.
Last week in the Wembley game, I allowed my support for the San Diego Chargers to persuade me that they were good value to come out in the second-half and stage a comeback. It didn't happen. I know that if it were say, the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets, I would have stayed on the sidelines.
Then on Thursday night, I backed the Dallas Mavericks (who have been my NBA team for many years) to beat the Houston Rockets at home, at a shorter price than I should have done. They lost.
It seems to be impossible to remain completely impartial when one of 'my' teams is involved. There's a little voice in my head urging me to back my team so that I can enjoy watching my investment win at the same team as my team.
It's as if my mind doesn't want to countenance the possibility of my team losing, and I really need to either stay away from such games altogether, or learn to overcome the 'favoured team' factor, which I suspect is easier said than done.
On the other hand, knowing certain teams better than others should give me an advantage on occasion. I need to start tracking my P/L by team.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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