October was my first losing month on Betfair since April 2007, albeit only £70.13, but the profits on BETDAQ saw my trading overall in profit. Ironically enough, the Premium Charge has only hit me to the tune of £400 or so, which is some consolation for a poor month I suppose!
November has started a little more promisingly, and I've even started trying my luck on the Indian Cricket League. Strange how the games I used to play and thought I knew something about are so tough to trade, yet baseball, basketball or American Football which I have only ever watched seem to suit my trading style much better.
I wrote about the US Election a few days ago, and in the end there were no surprises with Obama romping home. What was a little more surprising to me was the anti-gay marriage initiatives which narrowly passed in a few states. Gay marriage will soon be as accepted as inter-racial marriage is today and the churches really need to mind their own business and allow gay people the same rights as straight. Whew - getting a little political there. And no, I am not gay.
Here are a few words from my girlfriend to prove it:
"I hereby confirm that Mr Cassini is very manly, knows nothing about shoes or interior design, and is quite the stud-muffin. Was that ok?" - Cassini's Girlfriend.
Back to sports, and my NBA tip of the Lakers is off to a flying start. The Suns have started better than I thought, but the West is hard, and there's a long way to go.
And finally, football. Manchester United must be a back at 3.65. As much as I want Chelsea to win the title, at the prices right now I would have to say that United are the value. That might change this weekend though!
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
JPG here again. Id agree, the 3.65 on Man Utd is tempting. Id advocate a back on it right now with a view to trade off at some point between now and the end of November. Managed to lay Chelsea last Sunday at 1.99 (which is a similar move) but Ill be looking to trade off in a similar timeframe.
ReplyDeleteAs a novice trader, I find the US sports the best for me so far. Everytime i trade football I end up losing. Strategies such as laying the draw inevitably end up going wrong for me!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments. JPG, yes I'm with you that United are a back with a view to laying at some point. Laying Chelsea is the same. I really can't see Liverpool hanging in there for too much longer. I'm a trader, so I rarely let bets run completely, and if I'm in for a pure punt, then it's on BETDAQ!
ReplyDeleteNovice anonymous trader - agree too. (I'm such an agreeable chap!) I am hopeless at football and cricket, yet sports like NFL or the NBA are ideal. Laying the draw is an interesting, and simple, idea. Just a shame that it doesn't work! Most football 'systems' for me mirror my efforts in the over/under 2.5 market - lots of small wins, then the catastrophic wipe-out. Nine steps forward, then ten back.
Good luck.
HI CAN YOU SEND ME THE LITTLE ACORNS LAYING SYSTEM TO kennychadwicksafc@yahoo.co.uk
ReplyDelete