One of the rare times when I have a dabble on something I know nothing about, (other than football, which I do on a frequent basis), is the Academy Awards. Going to the cinema a few times a year does not mean I know anything about Sound Mixing!
Of the 18 markets that I got involved in, 13 were won by the favourite - a trend I have noticed in the three previous years I have invested in this event. I use the Golden Globes as a reliable guide, the exception being the Leading Actor market where, according to the 'experts', the favourite (Mickey Rourke) was apparently not to the Academy's liking whereas Sean Penn was. They were right.
As mentioned a few posts ago, I rather fancied Slumdog Millionaire to win the Best Picture (which goes hand in hand with Best Director) and having backed it at 1.24 (the 1.59 reported in the press was nowhere to be found) and was able to lay it off (just in case) at 1.06. Anyway, the biggest disaster was in the aforementioned Sound Mixing market where I dropped a not too cool £1,250, but winners exceeded losers leaving me overall up by just £350.
Was I getting value on these bets? Probably, as it turned out, and it's only once a year I go wild and crazy. I was happy with a profit, and whilst it could have been much more, it could have been much less. The advantages of a few big winners and a few big losers is obviously that the Premium Charge will be mitigated next week.
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