Tick-Tock

A respected member of the Betfair Forum (there’s not too many, but this guy is one of them) has suggested another way in which the clock can be ‘beaten’. In essence, the idea is the same as the one I mentioned a couple of posts back, whereby a bet would be submitted but would not reach the market after 5 seconds because of a block.

In the original method, this block would be another bet on Betfair, one that meant that insufficient funds were available for the new bet to be placed. If the desired event occurred during the five seconds, the original (blocker) bet would simply be cancelled (cancellations being instantaneous) and the new bet allowed to hit the market a second or two later, thus beating bets that are submitted after seeing the event.

The newly revealed strategy was illustrated using a tennis match as an example. Player A is serving at 4-5, 30-40. Obviously this is a key point, and just for demonstration purposes, the ‘true’ price on Player B is 1.8. If Player B should win the point, the price will drop to 1.4, so the strategy is to put in a lay at the front of the queue, say 10k at 1.8.

Then while the point is being played you submit 1k bets every second or two at 1.5 using an API. If the bet reaches the market before the point is decided, you will be self-matched.

If the point is won by Player B, the lay is cancelled and some of the bets submitted at 1.5 will hopefully be matched at close to 1.8.

If the point is won by Player A, the lay is not cancelled, as 1.8 is now good value to lay.

And that’s it. Personally, I would be very wary about employing this strategy. Unlike the first strategy where the bet effectively bounced, this system allows bets you submit to hit the market so you are therefore at risk of getting matched at poor value. (You cancel the 1.8 lay and could get matched at your requested 1.5). This risk is probably small in a liquid market, but there is also the problem of trying this in a market where others are doing the same thing and your lay is not that easy to place at the front of the queue. Not to mention that a court-sider could quite feasibly match your 1.8 on seeing Player B win the point before you can cancel it.