Saturday, 28 February 2009

Home System Week 1 Summary


Strange betting activity on the Queens Park v Ayr game in Scottish League Two today. I had money on Raith, and the total traded on the game was £10k. Three of the other four games had totals of £11k, £7k and £7k with the total for Queens Park – Ayr a staggering £160k. Ayr were justifiable favourites at 1.85, and the price didn’t move dramatically, but for people to be putting thousands on such a game, I suspect they knew something. Ayr ran out easy 3-0 winners.
I had all 16 bets matched, although I took lower prices on the Conference Regional league games than I initially asked for.
The full results with actual odds obtained were Everton (W 1.51), Chelsea (W 1.36), Bristol City (D 1.71), Burnley (L 1.92), Brentford (W 2.18), Chesterfield (D 1.87), Rochdale (W 1.56), Cambridge United (D 1.94), Forest Green Rovers (D 2.08), Raith Rovers (D 1.9), Cowdenbeath (W 2.04), Alfreton Town (D 1.63), Gateshead (D 1.59), Eastleigh (D 1.78), Hayes and Yeading United (W 1.72) and Team Bath (W 1.79) which netted out at a loss of £41.27. While there were ‘only’ 7 winners, just one team actually lost, with no less than 8 teams (50%!) drawing. (There’s those draws again…)

 Oh yeah, and I also had £70k on Ayr to win at Queens Park. Screenshot to follow…
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8 comments:

  1. Anonymous28 February 2009 at 20:46

    Cassini,

    A chase on York would have paid off as they romped home 2-0. When I last looked at the price yesterday York were trading at 1.11. Didn't see any prices on goals but I should imagine under 2.5 would have been rather skinny too.

    So far with your ratings what would be more profitable; laying your selections or their opposition?

    Curly

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  2. Cassini28 February 2009 at 21:03

    I'm not sure I would describe a 2-0 home win (with the second goal coming in the 90th minute) as a 'romp', but I suspect you were being a little sarcastic... Not value for sure.

    With 50% of my selections being draws, backing the draw would have been the best strategy by far.

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  3. Rob The Builder.28 February 2009 at 22:50

    Don't suppose you've calculated what you're results would be if you'd laid the away teams?

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  4. Cassini28 February 2009 at 23:29

    No, unfortunately I didn't record the away odds. I will do in future.

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  5. Rob The Builder.1 March 2009 at 11:24

    Further to the 'Weymouth incident', I've just laid Greek 2nd division side Ilisiakos at 1.16. The form doesn't stack up to the odds. Sure something's gone on I don't know about, but worth a tenner just for fun. You may wish to avoid it though.....

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  6. Cassini1 March 2009 at 14:59

    I can't even make money on English football - nevermind Greek 2nd Division! Let me know what happens.

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  7. Rob The Builder.2 March 2009 at 00:04

    Ilisiakos won! Fix! They scored twice in the first 10 minutes, and hung on for 2-1. They were backed down to 1.10, so a few people knew something was wrong.

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  8. Anonymous2 March 2009 at 00:38

    Cassini,

    Use the Kelly Criterion to work out for you whether its better to back your selection or lay the other team. Just pick whichever one has the highest expected growth, you dont have to use the suggested stake at all.

    From my experience, about 20% of the time, its better to lay the opposition and in the long run, it does enhance your results a fair bit (relatively anyway!)

    JPG

    ReplyDelete