Saturday, 9 May 2009

Saturday Round Up


As expected, Piacenza v Bari finished as a draw. When the pre-game price on the draw is in the 1.5 to 1.6 range, you know something is not right and while I'm not going to go crazy, this was something to be taken advantage of.

 Rangers (draw no bet) was a good win for me. Pre-game my calculations had Rangers value at anything over 1.64, and with 1.83 available, I took advantage. I'm surprised this bet isn't more popular. Comparing two teams is much simpler if you take out the draw as a possibility.

My play-off bets are looking quite good right now. In the Championship, Sheffield United have the advantage going into the second leg at home to Preston, and Burnley take a 1-0 lead to Reading. This one is in the balance, but Burnley are in form and Reading aren't.

 In League One, Millwall beat Leeds 1-0, but Leeds' form is good enough to make me feel they can still progress. MK Dons drew at Scunthorpe and have the advantage going into the second leg.

 League Two and Bury won away to Shrewsbury and should progress. Gillingham drew at Rochdale and also should advance.

 I got caught out by an early goal in the West Ham United v Liverpool game, and bailed out at half-time when it was 0-2 for a controlled loss. It's always hard to accept defeat, and of course annoying when there were no more goals until after my break-even point had been reached, but I think the decision was the right one.
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2 comments:

  1. Pete Nordsted10 May 2009 at 10:28

    Cassini,

    I am definately coming to the conclusion the Draw No Bet is a good thing unless you are actually opposing a team. the draw no bet saved me in both the Bolton and Everton games yesterday.

    I also believe too many people do not take the possibilty of the draw into consideration before i price my matches up I always assume the draw between 25 - 30% depending on whose playing

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  2. Anonymous10 May 2009 at 18:51

    Exchanges dont like to promote the DNB markets due to the chances of not making any comission from them. As for fixed odds, the bettor has traditionally backed a team(s) because they thought they would win so the logic being, why take lower odds if they are going to win? :)

    The 25-30% quote on the draw is in the correct range/bracket but should be tweaked quite a bit depending upon the overall total goals expectancy.

    Your right though Cassini, ELO's are easier to apply to DNB markets!

    JPG

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