A good day for the value selections. 2 of 3 lost, and all 3 were at one time losing.
I know this will sound very much like after-timing, but I have noticed in the past that the market overreacts to a sending-off. Watching the Spurs - Manchester United game, when Paul Scholes was sent off with a little over 30 minutes to go, the price on United jumped (on BETDAQ anyway) from 1.35 to 1.57. Did United's chances of winning really diminish from 74% to 64% in that instant? I didn't think so. I have watched enough football games to know that a man advantage is often not much of an advantage at all. As it turned out, United added a third goal to seal the deal, and my regret was that I had played it safe and laid off at 1.34 rather than let it run, but I am not into gambling.
In my post earlier this morning, I very nearly tipped my own Crystal Palace to beat a poor Scunthorpe side at 1.76. Palace had never lost to Scunthorpe, which means nothing I admit, but Scunthorpe had also not picked up an away point this season, and not scored in about a month, and Palace looked value. What do I know? Palace slumped to an awful 0-4 home defeat, and I'm wondering what Steve Coppell is up to these days.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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