After what seems like forever, another weekend of Premier League football is here, and no doubt some anxious readers waiting for my selections. Or perhaps not, but here they are anyway.
Back Chelsea (1.84) @ Aston Villa
Back Everton (1.51) v Wolves
Back Tottenham (1.92) @ Portsmouth
Back Stoke (2.19) v West Ham
Back Liverpool (2.26) @ Sunderland
I have gone with my most reliable indicator (Form) with the exception of Liverpool, who are selected because their in-game performances are more than twice as good as Sunderland's.
Also Manchester United v Bolton Over 2.5 (1.76). If I had to pick an Under it would be at Stoke City, but I'm not.
Update:
A small loss on the day, with Group One teams Chelsea and Liverpool both losing away. Everton were again very poor, but at least Tottenham and Stoke City both won. The Over 2.5 goals also came in at Old Trafford, as it did in most games once again!
Liverpool will not win the League, too many defeats already, and have dropped to 5th favourites, and Chelsea and Manchester United are both now available at 3.05 on Betfair. They play each other on November 8th.
Back Chelsea (1.84) @ Aston Villa L -100
Back Everton (1.51) v Wolves L -100
Back Tottenham (1.92) @ Portsmouth W 92
Back Stoke (2.19) v West Ham W 119
Back Liverpool (2.26) @ Sunderland L -100
Back Over 2.5 (1.76) Manchester United v Bolton Wanderers W 76
09-10 Totals - Stake: 2800 Return: 3033.61 P/L: 233.61 (+8.34%)
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Hi Cassini,
ReplyDeleteGreat blog, quick question if you dont mind!
When you state that form has been your most reliable indicator are you using overall form (last 6 games) for each team or home form only for home team and vice versa, or a combination of the 2?
Cheers
Thirsty
C
When I talk about form, I am talking about the team's change in rating value over the past 6 games. I am using overall form for now, but it has occurred to me that it might make sense to keep two ratings per team, one for home and one for away.
ReplyDeleteStay thirsty my friend...