A nice weekend on the football again, with no less than 4 of the 10 Premier League games finishing exactly as expected. Manchester United won by 4 instead of 3 which was pretty good too. The only real disappointment was Chelsea at Manchester City. Portsmouth were a no-bet under the 'new manager' rule, and Liverpool's form continue to under-perform their ratings making them a risky bet.
The three intra-group games produced two unders and one draw, and backing both those options in these matches continues to be lucrative.
Football Elite had another good weekend. For those not familiar with the service, they have their recommended bets, and also provide a short-list of bets that didn't quite make the cut. I have been backing all the selections, with the exception of teams at greater than 5.0 where my strategy is to lay the opposition. This paid off for me in the Blackburn v Liverpool game when I layed Liverpool at 1.88 rather than backed Blackburn at 5.2 from the short-list.
The recommended bets this weekend were Nice v Marseille @ 3.7 (L 1-3) and Fulham v Sunderland @ 2.19 (W 1-0), with the other short-list selections being Valenciennes v Monaco @ 2.26 (W 3-1), Deportivo v Barcelona @ 5.9 (I layed Barcelona, but they won 3-1) and Bologna v Udinese @ 2.82 (W 2-1).
Back to my own ratings, and I am now tracking each division's results to see where the expected and actual results are closest. Currently the numbers look best for Leagues One and Two with correct forecasts to date at 31.58% and 29.73% respectively.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Hey there,
ReplyDeleteA nice read here, did you catch the Everton game, had a lil dabble on it myself, then tottenham got that penalty at 2-2, over the moon that it got saved, was a poor penalty tbh!
Keep it up, I'll follow with interest.
Jay
www.amanthatlays.blogspot.com