I suppose it had to happen. The one week where my calculations fail to select a single EPL game to finish as a draw, and no less than six of nine end level. Predicting the precise margin of victory rather than just a winner is of course ambitious, which is why a result one goal off isn't cause for concern. However, when four teams are selected to win by at least two goals, and none manage to win at all, that really is disappointing. Five of the nine games had the result within one goal of the expected result, but Chelsea, Manchester United, Sunderland and Spurs all failing to win? Only Birmingham v West Ham was spot on.
The Championship was slightly better, 3 correct, 5 within one from 10 games, but League One again proved best in England with only one game of 12 (Bristol Rovers v Swindon Town) being wrong by more than one goal.
However, the best results were in the Scottish Premier with 4 of 6 games correct.
For what it's worth, Middlesbrough v Cardiff tomorrow is expected to be a draw.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
No comments:
Post a Comment